证券研究报告 | 2025年12月21日 农产品研究跟踪系列报告（187） 优于大市 牧业产能维持去化，看好肉奶周期共振反转 鸡蛋：在产父母代存栏维持增长，中期供给压力较大。12 月 19 日，鸡蛋主 产区价格 3.07 元/斤，周环比-0.65%，同比-5.98%。 周度农产品跟踪：牛价有望持续上涨，反内卷支撑中长期生猪价格。 生猪：行业反内卷有望支撑猪价中长期表现。12 月 19 日生猪价格 11.57 元/ 公斤，周环比+2.03%；7kg 仔猪价格约 218.57 元/头，周环比-0.43%。 白鸡：供给小幅增加，关注旺季消费修复。12 月 19 日，鸡苗价格 3.37 元/ 羽，周环比-0.30%；毛鸡价格 7.28 元/公斤，周环比+0.55%。 黄鸡：供给维持底部，有望率先受益内需改善。12 月 18 日浙江快大三黄鸡/ 青 脚 麻 鸡 / 雪 山 草 鸡 斤 价 分 别 为 5.0/5.9/7.5 元 ， 周 环 比 分 别 +8.70%/+5.36%/-8.54%。 肉牛：新一轮牛价上涨开启，看好牛周期反转上行。12 月 12 日，国内育肥 公牛出栏价为 25.40 元/kg，环比+0.79 ...

Group 1: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection Industry - The energy transition is ongoing, with clean energy and environmental protection exhibiting both growth and utility attributes [7][8] - The unified electricity market is accelerating, promoting high-quality development of renewable energy [7] - The coal power sector is transitioning to a regulatory power source, with coal prices expected to support long-term contract prices in 2026 [8] - Green electricity pricing uncertainties are diminishing, indicating a potential bottoming out for the green electricity sector [8] - Hydropower is experiencing improved cash flow and performance, supported by low costs and a balanced supply-demand trend [9] - Nuclear power is facing market price pressures but is expected to rebound, with new nuclear projects gaining momentum [10] - The natural gas market remains relatively loose, with domestic supply increasing and global prices potentially declining [10] - Green methanol is emerging as a significant growth area due to policies promoting renewable energy consumption [11] - The environmental protection sector is entering a mature phase, with improved cash flow and investment opportunities in public utility-like projects [11][12] Group 2: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant turnaround, with beef and milk prices projected to rise [13][16] - The domestic and international markets are likely to see synchronized price increases for beef and milk due to supply adjustments [13] - The pig and poultry farming sectors are shifting focus from cyclical trends to cash flow generation, with leading companies expected to benefit [14] - The pet industry is identified as a high-quality growth sector, with domestic brands gaining traction [15][18] - Agricultural commodity prices are stabilizing, with corn and soybean markets showing signs of support [16][17] Group 3: Machinery Industry - The machinery industry is poised for growth driven by AI infrastructure and humanoid robots, with a focus on engineering machinery and market share-boosting leaders [19][20] - Emerging markets and export growth are key drivers, particularly in AI infrastructure and robotics [19] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors with significant import substitution potential, such as scientific instruments and semiconductor components [20] - The nuclear power sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with a positive outlook on nuclear energy development [22] Group 4: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is recovering, with a notable increase in consumer demand and improvements in the supply chain [26][27] - The alcoholic beverage segment is in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for quality companies to gain market share [26] - Dairy and beverage sectors are expected to see stable demand recovery, with leading companies positioned for growth [26][27] - The snack food market is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in niche segments like konjac snacks [26]

Group 1: Livestock Industry Outlook - The livestock industry is expected to experience a significant reversal, with both beef and milk prices projected to rebound, driven by a reduction in domestic beef production capacity and a historical high in the meat-milk price ratio, which may accelerate the culling of dairy cows [1][15][45] - Domestic beef prices have been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of nearly 20% since June 2023, reaching a low of 23.77 CNY/kg by February 2025, while the market price for beef has dropped to 51.38 CNY/kg, down 6.5% year-on-year [15][21] - The supply of beef is expected to tighten as the number of cull cows decreases, leading to a potential price increase for beef from 2025 to 2027, supported by both domestic and international market dynamics [21][45] Group 2: Swine and Poultry Farming - The swine industry is shifting focus from cyclical trends to company management and cash flow generation, with leading firms expected to benefit from improved cash flow due to capacity adjustments [2][9] - In poultry farming, supply fluctuations are anticipated to be limited, with leading companies likely to achieve higher cash flow and dividend returns as demand recovers [2][9] - The feed industry is expected to see increased industrialization and specialization, with leading feed companies leveraging technology and service advantages to enhance their competitive edge [2][9] Group 3: Pet Industry Insights - The pet industry is viewed as a promising new consumption sector, benefiting from demographic trends, with domestic brands rapidly emerging [2][9] - The performance of leading pet food companies is expected to remain strong, with significant growth potential similar to the rise of domestic brands in Japan [2][9] - Key recommendations include domestic brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are positioned well in the market [2][9] Group 4: Agricultural Commodities Overview - Agricultural commodities are currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations of upward movement in the medium to long term [3][9] - Corn supply is expected to increase marginally in the short term, while the long-term outlook remains strong due to solid bottom support [3][9] - Soybean imports are anticipated to rise, driven by cost recovery, while oilseed supply is expected to increase moderately, supported by policy measures [3][9]