思索天地自然、社会与人心……在这里，追求自由与思想。 文/ 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长 罗志恒 ，粤开证券首席宏观分析师 马 家进 ，粤开证券宏观分析师 孟之绪 物价低位运行已成为当前中国经济中亟待解决的问题，核心原因是国内有 效需求不足。然而，今年以来特朗普向全球发起关税战，这一重大外部冲 击进一步加大了中国国内物价的下行压力。2 02 5年6月PPI同比- 3.6%，创 20 23年8月以来新低，CPI同比也持续在0附近波动。关税战对中国物价有 哪些影响？后续将如何演变？要如何应对？本文主要回答以上问题。 上半年，关税战对中国物价影响的四点表现 2025年6月PPI同比-3.6%，创2023年8月以来新低，CPI同比也持续在0附近波动。物价持续低位运行，已成为当前我国经济中亟待解决的问题，核心原因是 国内有效需求不足。然而，今年以来特朗普向全球发起关税战，这一重大外部冲击也进一步加大了中国国内物价的下行压力，其影响已初步显现。 全球经济增长预期放缓，原油等大宗商品价格下跌，带来输入性物价下行压力 以下文章来源于持志以恒2020 ，作者罗志恒 持志以恒2020 . 2025年4月初，特朗普公布的"对等 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariff War on Prices - The PPI in June 2025 decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, the lowest since August 2023, while CPI remained around 0%[12] - Brent crude oil prices fell from $74.95 per barrel to $62.82 per barrel following the announcement of tariffs, leading to significant declines in PPI for the petroleum industry of -8.6%, -11.1%, and -9.0% from April to June 2025[2] - Exports to the U.S. for textiles, clothing, and furniture saw a drop of over 40% in May 2025, resulting in a significant decrease in related export prices, such as an 8.3% drop in the average price of clothing imported from China[17] Group 2: Future Price Trends and Recommendations - International commodity prices are expected to remain under pressure, with OPEC+ increasing production, which may lead to further downward pressure on prices[31] - The negative impact of the tariff war on China's overall exports may gradually become more pronounced, with potential price declines for more products[32] - To counteract the tariff impacts, it is crucial to expand domestic effective demand through policies that stimulate consumption and investment, particularly in the real estate sector[42]

Group 1 - The Anhui Bozhou Market Supervision Administration announced the results of the 2025 Spring Festival and winter-spring season key industrial product quality supervision and inspection [1] - The inspection results include various products, highlighting issues related to electrical safety and compliance with standards [1][2] - Specific products listed include heating appliances and electrical devices, with several identified as non-compliant [1][3] Group 2 - The inspection revealed that certain heating appliances failed to meet safety standards, raising concerns about consumer safety [2][4] - Companies involved in the inspection include well-known brands, indicating a widespread issue across the industry [2][5] - The results may impact consumer trust and purchasing decisions in the heating appliance market [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The market for elderly toys is growing, but there is a significant gap between expectations and actual acceptance among the elderly, leading to challenges in product adoption and market penetration [1][6][10]. Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - The elderly population in China is increasing, creating a demand for toys that can prevent cognitive decline, alleviate loneliness, and promote social interaction [1]. - Companies like Henan Fukan Yile Technology Co., Ltd. are developing specialized elderly toys that cater to the physical and social needs of older adults, with a focus on safety and ease of use [2][5]. - Despite the growing interest in elderly toys in public spaces like nursing homes, there is a lack of awareness and acceptance among elderly individuals at home, leading to low orders from this demographic [6][10]. Group 2: Product Design and Innovation - Many elderly toys currently available are adaptations of children's toys, with only 5% designed specifically for the elderly, indicating a need for more tailored products [8]. - The design of elderly toys must consider the physical limitations of older adults, such as hand tremors, and should evoke emotional connections, such as nostalgia [4][9]. - There is a call for increased investment in research and development to create innovative products that meet the actual needs of the elderly [10]. Group 3: Market Trends and Opportunities - Online sales of elderly toys have surged, with a 124% increase in search volume and over 70% growth in transaction volume in the past year, indicating a shift in consumer interest [7]. - The elderly toy market is seen as a potential growth area within the silver economy, with opportunities for companies to develop specialized products that cater to this demographic [9][10]. - The lack of industry standards and quality control in the elderly toy market presents both challenges and opportunities for companies to differentiate themselves and establish a strong market presence [9][10].

1 、 外交部发言人就美国打击伊朗核设施答记者问称，中方强烈谴责美方袭击伊朗，攻击国际原子 能机构监管下的核设施。 美方此举严重违反联合国宪章宗旨和原则以及国际法，加剧中东紧张局 势。中方呼吁冲突当事方尤其是以色列尽快停火，保障平民安全，开启对话谈判。 2 、 美国东部时间 6 月 21 日 22 时，美国总统特朗普就袭击伊朗核设施发表讲话称，伊朗关键的 核设施已被"彻底摧毁"。 伊朗方面表示，与特朗普所声称的相反，福尔多核设施并未遭到严重破 坏，主要受损的是地上部分，且可以修复。 有美国高级官员承认， B-2 轰炸机对伊朗福尔多核设 施的袭击并没有摧毁这座戒备森严的设施，但造成了严重损坏。 伊朗议会称，已得出结论，认为应 关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 3 、 当地时间6月22日，国际原子能机构总干事格罗西就伊朗局势向联合国安理会发表声明，通报 了伊朗核设施受损情况。通报称，在美国袭击后， 伊斯法罕核设施遭受了大面积破坏，其中一些建 筑可能含有核材料，其地下隧道的入口也受到了影响；福尔多核设施也受到了直接影响，但内部受 损程度无法确定；纳坦兹此前遭到严重破坏，又再次遭到美国钻地 ...

Group 1: Safety Concerns in Children's Toys - The "炸包" toy, which creates a loud explosion when activated, is deemed unsafe for children under 14, violating national safety standards [2][3] - Market supervision departments have intensified inspections, with over 25,432 personnel deployed in 2024 to check 16,398 children's product businesses [3] - There is a rising concern over toys like magnetic beads that pose ingestion risks, leading to severe health issues such as intestinal perforation [4] Group 2: Regulatory Measures and Quality Control - China mandates certification for various toy types, ensuring compliance with safety standards regarding physical and chemical properties [5] - Zhejiang Province has conducted 1,648 toy product inspections in 2024, identifying 103 non-compliant products, resulting in a 6.25% failure rate [5] - The market supervision authority has issued guidelines to regulate blind box sales, particularly targeting sales to minors [8] Group 3: Psychological Impact and Consumer Behavior - Card collecting among children has become a trend, with some children spending significant amounts on cards, raising concerns among parents [6][7] - The addictive nature of card collecting can negatively impact children's academic performance and mental health, fostering a sense of comparison and vanity [7][9] - Recommendations include parental involvement in setting spending limits and promoting alternative activities to mitigate the risks of addiction [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rampant insider trading in the A-share market, indicating that the frequency and audacity of such activities have reached unprecedented levels, overshadowing previous regulatory efforts [3][22]. Group 1: Instances of Pre-announcement Price Surge - Guokewi announced on June 6 its intention to acquire 94.366% of Zhongxin Ningbo's equity, leading to a 20% price surge on May 20, just before the announcement [5]. - Shangluo Electronics saw a 22.82% increase over four trading days prior to its announcement on June 4 regarding the acquisition of Guangzhou Ligong Technology [6]. - Bangji Technology's stock price surged on June 4 before announcing its acquisition plans [7]. - ST Jinbi experienced a 7.13% increase in the two trading days leading up to its announcement on June 4 regarding a share transfer [8]. - Huamao Technology's stock rose by 11.16% in the three trading days before its June 4 announcement of acquiring Shenzhen Fuchuang Youyue Technology [9]. Group 2: Long-term Price Increases Before Major Announcements - Honghui Fruits and Vegetables saw a 38.14% increase from April 1 to June 6, despite only a 2.97% rise on the announcement day [23]. - Maipu Medical's stock surged over 69.61% from April 7 to May 21, with significant increases noted before its announcement [23]. - Haitai Development's stock rose by 73.84% from April 7 to June 5, despite only a 1.73% increase on the announcement day [23]. - Feiyada's stock increased by 50.76% in May, with multiple days of over 9% gains leading up to its announcement on June 4 [23]. Group 3: Techniques of Insider Trading - The article discusses the strategy of creating false market signals to mislead investors, as seen in the case of Qunxing Toys, which experienced a sudden surge in trading volume before announcing a major asset restructuring [29]. - The practice of buying shares before creating favorable news is highlighted, with examples such as Diou Home, where the actual controller's shareholding was transferred to a related party [31]. - The article notes that insider trading is often concealed effectively, making it difficult for regulatory bodies to detect [34]. Group 4: Regulatory Challenges - The article emphasizes that even significant price increases do not necessarily trigger regulatory scrutiny, as companies can claim no insider information was leaked [36][38]. - Instances of companies reporting substantial price increases before announcements without facing consequences illustrate the challenges in enforcing regulations [40][41].

如果消费者在不知情的情况下过量接触，很可能在身边安装了一个威胁健康的"定时炸弹"。因此，对于 这一新兴玩具市场，决不能任由其野蛮生长。 当下，捏捏乐市场之所以质量问题频现，本质上，是制造商没有严格遵守相关的标准。现行的《玩具安 全第1部分：基本规范（GB 6675.1-2014）》明确，玩具产品在正常使用及经滥用试验后所暴露的化学 物质，不应给人体的健康带来负面影响。捏捏既然归类于玩具品类，自然也该严格遵守这些标准。 但从既往报道看，现实中，一些商家为降低成本，倾向于选择可能存在安全隐患的材料。而当越来越多 商家通过采取劣质材料压缩成本，也会导致劣币驱逐良币，加速市场的畸形发展。 此前，四川绵阳市市场监管部门发布的一篇消费提示中就提到，目前市面上部分捏捏乐解压玩具存在标 签缺失或标签内容不齐全，甚至是"三无"产品的现象。这些乱象自然应该引起更为广泛的关注，并拿出 针对性治理举措。 解压玩具可能成为"毒"器？近日，"网红捏捏越玩越危险"的话题冲上热搜 据中国青年报综合多家媒体报道，一段时间以来，捏捏作为一种可揉捏、挤压、慢回弹的解压玩具，凭 借其可爱逼真的外形设计和软糯Q弹的手感，迅速在年轻人和小朋友间走红，成 ...

Economic Resilience - Guangdong's economy shows overall stability with industrial, consumption, and import-export indicators performing steadily despite external pressures [1][7] - The manufacturing sector grew by 4.1%, indicating a shift towards mid-to-high-end production [2][6] - Key industries such as computer, communication, and electronic equipment manufacturing saw a value-added growth of 7.1%, while electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing grew by 7.7% [2] Trade Performance - Guangdong's foreign trade import and export reached 2.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, outpacing the national growth rate of 2.5% [7] - Exports totaled 1.86 trillion yuan, growing by 2.1%, while imports increased by 10.1% to 1.1 trillion yuan [7][11] Consumer Demand - Social retail sales in Guangdong increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with a notable rise of 4.9% in April [11] - The implementation of policies such as the old-for-new consumption scheme has contributed to the recovery of consumer demand [15][16] Policy Support - The government has introduced various policies to support manufacturing and consumption, including tax incentives and streamlined regulations [20] - Specific retail categories, such as communication equipment and home appliances, saw significant sales growth, with some categories experiencing increases of over 60% [16][20] Technological Advancements - Guangdong's manufacturing sector is transitioning from traditional OEM models to building independent brands, enhancing product value and resilience against trade tensions [6][20] - The robotics industry in Guangdong is thriving, with products like AI-driven coffee machines being exported to over 60 countries [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant role of financial support in enhancing the operational capacity and sales performance of private enterprises in Hebei province, particularly the Ruiheng Children's Toy Factory, which saw a 50% increase in production capacity and a rise in monthly sales from 800,000 to 1,500,000 yuan due to a 3 million yuan loan from China Construction Bank [1] Financial Support for Private Enterprises - The total loan balance for private enterprises in Xingtai reached 329.52 billion yuan by the end of February, marking a year-on-year growth of 17.05% [2] - Xingtai's financial institutions are increasingly directing resources towards private enterprises, focusing on sectors such as technological innovation, green low-carbon initiatives, and local specialty industries [2] Customized Financial Solutions - Xingtai has organized various bank-enterprise matchmaking events to address financing challenges faced by small and micro enterprises, allowing banks to tailor financing solutions to specific needs [2] - Hebei Deyuquan Dairy Co., Ltd. received a 20 million yuan loan within a week to support its expansion plans [2] Support for County-Level Industrial Clusters - The Xingtai government is facilitating collaboration between financial institutions and key counties to support the development of county-level industrial clusters, with a loan balance of 81.35 billion yuan for these clusters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.83% [3] - Financial institutions are integrating deeply with industrial chains, as demonstrated by the Agricultural Bank of China providing a 48 million yuan loan for equipment purchase and additional credit support for related enterprises [3] Interest Rate Trends - Xingtai's financial institutions are working to lower loan interest rates, with the average interest rate for new corporate loans at 4.41% and for new inclusive small and micro enterprise loans at 4.45%, both showing a decrease compared to the previous year [4]