2026 年 1 月 27 日 总量研究 盈利周期步入上行通道 ——2025 年 12 月工业企业盈利数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 盈利承压，分化加剧——2025 年 11 月工业 企业盈利数据点评（2025-12-27） 10 月盈利增速再次转负，需要担心吗？—— 2025 年 10 月工业企业盈利数据点评 （2025-11-27） 利润率改善驱动企业利润加速修复——2025 年9月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-10-27） 8 月工业企业利润缘何高增？——2025 年 8 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-09-27） "反内卷"推动制造业盈利好转——2025 年 7 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-08-27） 企业利润继续承压，亟待"反内卷"政策提 振——2025 年 6 月工业企业盈利数据点评 （2025-07-27） 要点 事件： 2026 年 1 月 27 ...

Profit Trends - In November 2025, industrial enterprise profits fell by 13.1% year-on-year, worsening from a decline of 5.5% in October 2025[4] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to November 2025 was 0.1%, down from 1.9% for the first ten months[2] - Cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to November 2025 was 1.6%, slightly down from 1.8% for the first ten months[2] Structural Analysis - Only the midstream equipment manufacturing sector showed stable profit growth, while upstream and downstream sectors experienced varying degrees of decline[3] - Cumulative profit growth for the mining sector from January to November 2025 was -27.2%, while manufacturing sector profit growth dropped to 5.0%[13] - The cumulative profit margin for the manufacturing sector was 4.62%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous year[13] Market Dynamics - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in November 2025 was 5.65%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points year-on-year[5] - The cost per 100 yuan of revenue for large industrial enterprises increased by 0.18 yuan from January to November 2025[5] - The PPI (Producer Price Index) year-on-year growth rate in November 2025 was -2.2%, slightly down from -2.1% in October 2025[5] Future Outlook - Industrial profits are expected to remain under pressure in December 2025 due to high year-on-year comparisons[3] - The implementation of new policies in 2026 is anticipated to stimulate demand and support profit recovery for enterprises[29] - The midstream sector is projected to continue its positive profit trend, benefiting from "anti-involution" policies[3]

Group 1: Profit Trends - In October 2025, industrial enterprises' profit growth turned negative, dropping to -5.5% from +21.6% in September 2025[4] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to October 2025 was +1.9%, down from +3.2% for January to September 2025[2] - Cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to October 2025 was +1.8%, a decrease from +2.4% for January to September 2025[2] Group 2: Industry Performance - Only the non-ferrous metals, automotive, electronics, and food and beverage sectors maintained positive profit growth, while other sectors showed varying degrees of decline[3] - The cumulative profit margin for the manufacturing sector was 4.57%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points compared to the previous year[13] - The mining sector's cumulative profit margin decreased to 16.76%, down 3.54 percentage points from the previous year[13] Group 3: Future Outlook - Industrial profits are expected to continue weak performance in Q4 2025 due to rising year-on-year comparisons and weakening demand from reduced export growth[3] - The anticipated fiscal policy support in Q4 has not yet shown significant effects in the data, indicating a likely continuation of the "strong supply, weak demand" scenario[3] - The stability of profit recovery for enterprises will depend on further demand-side policy initiatives[3]

Profit Growth - In September 2025, industrial enterprises' profits increased by 21.6% year-on-year, up from 20.4% in August 2025[4] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to September 2025 was +3.2%, compared to +0.9% for January to August 2025[2] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in September 2025 was 5.46%, an increase of 0.70 percentage points year-on-year[5] Revenue and Price Trends - Cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to September 2025 was +2.4%, slightly up from +2.3% for January to August 2025[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year decline narrowed from -2.9% in August to -2.3% in September 2025[5] - The industrial added value growth rate in September 2025 rose to +6.5%, up from +5.2% in August 2025[5] Sector Performance - The profit margin for the manufacturing sector increased to 4.58% in the first nine months of 2025, compared to 4.36% in the same period last year[12] - The profit growth rate for raw materials manufacturing surged to +111.7% in September 2025, up from +101.1% in August 2025[19] - The profit growth rate for consumer goods manufacturing slowed to +4.8% in September 2025, down from +26.8% in August 2025[21] Market Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue supporting profit recovery in the manufacturing sector, although demand remains weak[34] - The profit distribution is increasingly favoring midstream and upstream industries, while downstream consumer manufacturing is experiencing profit growth slowdown[3]

Profit Trends - In June 2025, industrial enterprise profits continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, narrowing from 9.1% in the previous month[4] - Cumulative profit growth for industrial enterprises from January to June 2025 was -1.8%, down from -1.1% in January to May 2025[2] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in June 2025 was 6.0%, lower than 6.4% in the same month last year[4] Revenue and Production - Cumulative revenue growth for industrial enterprises from January to June 2025 was +2.5%, slightly down from +2.7% in January to May 2025[2] - The industrial production growth rate increased to +6.8% in June 2025, up from +5.8% in May 2025[5] - Export delivery value for industrial enterprises grew by 4.0% year-on-year in June 2025, compared to only 0.6% in May 2025[5] Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a positive profit growth of +9.1% in June 2025, recovering from -3.3% in the previous month, driven by improved exports and policy effects[22] - The upstream raw materials sector experienced a profit decline of -7.3% in June 2025, worsening from -4.0% in May 2025, due to high supply and weak demand[21] - The downstream consumer goods manufacturing sector's profit growth fell to -7.3% in June 2025, down from -6.0% in May 2025, influenced by declining export demand[23] Market Outlook - Future industrial profit performance is expected to depend on the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, which have recently led to price rebounds in sectors like steel and coal[3] - The cumulative profit margin for the manufacturing sector was 4.46% from January to June 2025, slightly below the previous year's 4.47%[15]