Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [6] Price Trends - The raw materials purchase price index for manufacturing is at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [7] - The ex-factory price index is at 48.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [7] - Price stability in the manufacturing sector is primarily driven by the basic raw materials industry, with significant increases in both purchase and ex-factory price indices [7] Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [8] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 49.5% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic health across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [13] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [13] - Summer consumption shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to grow steadily [14] - Continued implementation of macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting demand is anticipated to support economic recovery in the second half of the year [9][16]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Manufacturing Performance - The foundation for economic recovery remains solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [2][3]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a "ballast" for the economy [2][3]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index, which rose above the critical point for the first time since March, reflects improved market conditions in certain industries [4]. Group 2: Impact of Anti-Competition Measures - The anti-competition measures have positively influenced corporate expectations, as indicated by rising indices for purchasing prices, output prices, employment, supplier delivery times, and production activity expectations [4][5]. - The purchasing price index for major raw materials increased to 51.5%, while the output price index rose to 48.3%, showing significant recovery in specific sectors like petroleum and black metal processing [4]. Group 3: Consumer Activity and Seasonal Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline but showing initial signs of summer consumption boosting economic activity [6][7]. - Retail activity is on the rise, with the retail business activity index surpassing the critical point, and new order indices showing significant increases [7]. - Travel and leisure activities are also gaining momentum, with indices for railway and air transport exceeding 60%, indicating strong consumer willingness to travel [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The summer consumption boost is expected to continue into August, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][5][6]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI reflects a contraction, but the underlying economic recovery remains solid, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand [3][7]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a stabilizing force in the economy [3][7]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index indicates a positive shift in business expectations due to anti-involution measures [10][12]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, showing a slight decline but remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing activity in the sector [2][14]. - Summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects, with significant increases in retail and travel activities, although the accommodation and catering sectors remain below the critical point [14][15][16]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand is expected to support stable economic growth and quality improvement in the second half of the year [8][17]. - Analysts predict that the positive impact of summer consumption will continue into August, contributing to a gradual increase in investment and consumption activities [16][17].

Core Points - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a decline but remaining above the critical point [1][3] - Economic recovery fundamentals remain solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [1][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI's decline is attributed to traditional production off-seasons and extreme weather events, leading to a weaker demand side [2][3] - Despite the overall PMI decline, production activities in manufacturing are still expanding, particularly in the equipment and high-tech sectors, which are crucial for economic growth [3][5] Price Indices - Among the 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, the purchasing price index and the ex-factory price index have risen, indicating improved market conditions in certain sectors [5] - The main raw material purchasing price index has risen to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, suggesting a potential recovery in material costs [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline, but summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects in retail, travel, and entertainment sectors [7][9] - Retail activity is increasing, with the retail business activity index rising above the critical point, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [8] Future Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, is expected to support stable economic expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year [1][9] - The positive impact of summer consumption is anticipated to continue into August, contributing to economic recovery [9]

Group 1 - In the first half of 2023, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 34,365.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while operating revenue reached 667,800.0 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5% [1] - In June 2023, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 1.0% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as May, while total profit was 7,155.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, with the decline narrowing by 4.8 percentage points compared to May [1] - The overall decline in industrial enterprise profits in the first half of 2023 was less severe than in 2024, indicating the effectiveness of a series of stable growth policies, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which saw profits shift from a decline of 4.1% in May to a growth of 1.4% [1] Group 2 - Within the manufacturing sector, the equipment manufacturing industry experienced rapid growth in both revenue and profit, contributing 3.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size [2] - In June 2023, the equipment manufacturing industry saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 7.0%, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points from May, and profits shifted from a decline of 2.9% in May to a growth of 9.6% [2] - The automotive industry, driven by promotional activities and increased investment returns from key enterprises, reported a remarkable profit growth of 96.8% [2] Group 3 - The implementation of the "two new" and "two heavy" policies has led to rapid profit growth in industries such as electronics, home appliances, and kitchenware [3] - In June 2023, specific sectors like medical instruments, printing and packaging machinery, and general components manufacturing saw significant profit increases, with smart drones and computer manufacturing experiencing profit growth of 160.0% and 97.2%, respectively [3] - Looking ahead to the third quarter, it is anticipated that the recovery of industrial enterprise profits will be supported by the progress in US-China trade negotiations and the introduction of domestic "anti-involution" policies, alongside a rebound in prices of commodities like coking coal and steel [3]