2025 年 12 月 27 日 总量研究 盈利承压，分化加剧 ——2025 年 11 月工业企业盈利数据点评 作者 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 10 月盈利增速再次转负，需要担心吗？—— 2025 年 10 月工业企业盈利数据点评 （2025-11-27） 利润率改善驱动企业利润加速修复——2025 年9月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-10-27） 8 月工业企业利润缘何高增？——2025 年 8 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-09-27） 工业企业盈利增速将继续改善——2024 年 11 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2024-12-27） 工业企业盈利或迎来曙光——2024 年 10 月 工业企业盈利数据点评（2024-11-27） "反内卷"推动制造业盈利好转——2025 年 7 月工业企业盈利数据点评（2025-08-27） 企业利润继续承压，亟待"反内卷"政策提 振——202 ...

更加注重质效 多维发力稳预期稳增长 近日召开的中央经济工作会议指出，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。这其中，新一年的财政政策也将"更加积 极"。持续聚焦重点领域和关键环节，财政部门将通过适度赤字安排、专项债优化使用、税收政策进一 步调整等，多措并举为明年经济平稳运行提供坚实支撑。 "当前要进一步优化实施方式，更好地促进消费、扩大投资。"罗志恒认为，以旧换新政策有必要从 对耐用消费品的补贴转向对服务消费的补贴，这不仅能够避免耐用消费品的消费透支效应，还能促进服 务业繁荣和相应的就业改善；要尽可能扩大对支持服务消费的行业范围，减少对特性行业的选择，增强 普惠性，避免对市场配置资源的扭曲效应。另外，额度分配应尽可能根据各地实际需要，避免部分区域 额度过剩、部分区域额度稀缺并存的情况。"两重"项目方面，建议优先支持前期储备好、预期投资效益 好的项目，尤其是优先支持跨区域的重大工程建设，发挥促投资、优结构的重要作用。 "政策工具的选择上，此次中央经济工作会议体现出更加注重质效的导向，工具的选择范围也更丰 富。'提质增效'是政策基调方面的新要求 ...

粤开证券首席经济学家 研究院院长 罗志恒：从量的角度，我们要确保必要的财政赤字规模、新增债务总规模以及必要的财政支出力度。通过政府的支出， 比如政府采购以及基建工程项目来扩大社会的总需求，来形成我们居民部门、企业部门的收入，推动经济运行的循环。第二个就是结构的优化，要坚持将投 资于物和投资于人的结合，提高居民的医疗、教育和养老，这样的话居民的后顾之忧得到了缓解，进而有利于去释放潜在的消费需求。 优化"两新""两重"政策 提高财政资金使用效率 0:00 中央经济工作会议指出，明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。如何理解明年财政政策的取向？来看专家的解读。 中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。专家表示，明年的财政政策取向与2025年保持了 一致。 中央经济工作会议指出，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策。专家表示，这有利于进一步提高财政资金的使用效率，让 更多资金投入到民生领域。 中国财政科学研究院院长 杨志勇：老百姓对民生的改善、养老、医疗、教育各个方面，它不只是过去的有没有的问题，现在是好不好、怎么样更好的问 题。通过优化支出结 ...

会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续 扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建 设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 会议明确了2026年经济工作中的八大重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱 动，加紧培育壮大新动能等。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026 年经济工作。 经济长期向好的基本趋势没有变 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移 贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会 发展主要目标将顺利完成。 2025年我国经济将顺利完成经济社会发展主要目标，更加积极有为的宏观政策是重要支撑。 具体来看，财政政策方面，赤字率从2024年的3%显著提升至2025年的4%，新增地方专项债和超长期特 别国债等资金规模进一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic policies implemented in China have effectively supported economic stability and growth, with significant contributions from consumer spending and industrial upgrades [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Consumer Spending - In 2023, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5%, an increase of 9.0 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The government allocated 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the replacement of old consumer goods, leading to a significant increase in retail sales of household appliances and other consumer goods [2] - The number of applications for vehicle replacements exceeded 8.3 million by September 10, indicating strong consumer demand for new vehicles [2] Group 2: Industrial Upgrades - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 14.0% year-on-year in the first three quarters, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall investment growth [2] - Key manufacturing sectors such as general equipment and aerospace saw investment growth rates of 11.8% and 22.3%, respectively [2] Group 3: New Growth Drivers - The production value of industries related to lithium-ion batteries, shipbuilding, and electric motors grew by 29.8%, 22.9%, and 17.1% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The output of new energy vehicles and electric bicycles increased by 29.7% and 27.1%, respectively, reflecting a shift towards high-quality products [3] Group 4: Economic Circulation - The focus on expanding domestic demand has improved market competition and accelerated the flow of goods, personnel, and capital [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing decline for two consecutive months, indicating improved market conditions [4] - The trading volume of stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased by 106.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, boosting social confidence [4]

Economic Overview - August economic data continues to reflect insufficient total demand, with investment, consumption, and exports all slowing down, indicating increasing downward pressure on the economy[2] - Industrial added value in August year-on-year was 5.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from July, showing a cooling in industrial production[4] - Fixed asset investment in August saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, a record low, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments continuing to decline[6] - Real estate investment in August decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with new construction area down 20.3%[10] Financial Market Insights - Social financing growth in August was 8.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a potential peak in social financing for the year[14] - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining at historical lows[14] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times in 2025, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in September[28] Inflation and Policy Outlook - The U.S. CPI in August rose to 2.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reflecting a controlled inflationary environment[23] - The core CPI remained stable at 3.1%, indicating limited upward pressure on core service prices[24] - The anticipated fiscal and monetary policy support in the U.S. is expected to bolster the stock market, which may continue to perform strongly[28]

Economic Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, indicating a contraction in market demand [6] - The new export orders index is at 47.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points, reflecting weakened demand [6] - Despite the decline in demand, the production index is at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [6] Price Trends - The raw materials purchase price index for manufacturing is at 51.5%, up 3.1 percentage points, indicating a recovery in raw material prices [7] - The ex-factory price index is at 48.3%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [7] - Price stability in the manufacturing sector is primarily driven by the basic raw materials industry, with significant increases in both purchase and ex-factory price indices [7] Business Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [8] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium and small enterprises show PMIs of 49.5% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic health across different enterprise sizes [8] Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion [13] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [13] - Summer consumption shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to grow steadily [14] - Continued implementation of macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting demand is anticipated to support economic recovery in the second half of the year [9][16]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Recovery and Manufacturing Performance - The foundation for economic recovery remains solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [2][3]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a "ballast" for the economy [2][3]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index, which rose above the critical point for the first time since March, reflects improved market conditions in certain industries [4]. Group 2: Impact of Anti-Competition Measures - The anti-competition measures have positively influenced corporate expectations, as indicated by rising indices for purchasing prices, output prices, employment, supplier delivery times, and production activity expectations [4][5]. - The purchasing price index for major raw materials increased to 51.5%, while the output price index rose to 48.3%, showing significant recovery in specific sectors like petroleum and black metal processing [4]. Group 3: Consumer Activity and Seasonal Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index for July is 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline but showing initial signs of summer consumption boosting economic activity [6][7]. - Retail activity is on the rise, with the retail business activity index surpassing the critical point, and new order indices showing significant increases [7]. - Travel and leisure activities are also gaining momentum, with indices for railway and air transport exceeding 60%, indicating strong consumer willingness to travel [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The summer consumption boost is expected to continue into August, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [8].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][5][6]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI reflects a contraction, but the underlying economic recovery remains solid, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand [3][7]. - Large enterprises are maintaining stable expansion, acting as a stabilizing force in the economy [3][7]. - The rebound in the major raw material purchasing price index indicates a positive shift in business expectations due to anti-involution measures [10][12]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, showing a slight decline but remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing activity in the sector [2][14]. - Summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects, with significant increases in retail and travel activities, although the accommodation and catering sectors remain below the critical point [14][15][16]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand is expected to support stable economic growth and quality improvement in the second half of the year [8][17]. - Analysts predict that the positive impact of summer consumption will continue into August, contributing to a gradual increase in investment and consumption activities [16][17].

Core Points - The manufacturing PMI for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and adverse weather conditions [1][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a decline but remaining above the critical point [1][3] - Economic recovery fundamentals remain solid, with the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs continuing to expand, indicating ongoing structural optimization [1][3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI's decline is attributed to traditional production off-seasons and extreme weather events, leading to a weaker demand side [2][3] - Despite the overall PMI decline, production activities in manufacturing are still expanding, particularly in the equipment and high-tech sectors, which are crucial for economic growth [3][5] Price Indices - Among the 13 sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, the purchasing price index and the ex-factory price index have risen, indicating improved market conditions in certain sectors [5] - The main raw material purchasing price index has risen to 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March, suggesting a potential recovery in material costs [5] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slight decline, but summer consumption is beginning to show positive effects in retail, travel, and entertainment sectors [7][9] - Retail activity is increasing, with the retail business activity index rising above the critical point, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [8] Future Outlook - The implementation of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, such as "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, is expected to support stable economic expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year [1][9] - The positive impact of summer consumption is anticipated to continue into August, contributing to economic recovery [9]