Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - This report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes multiple commodity futures and options, including livestock, soft commodities, and energy, and provides short - term and medium - term views and trading strategies for each variety. - **Livestock and Soft Commodities**: - **Pig**: The current supply and demand are both weak, with a short - term narrow - range shock and a medium - term pattern of near - strong and far - weak. It is recommended to sell high [1][2]. - **Sugar**: It shows a short - term weak shock and a medium - term trend of rising first and then falling. It is advisable to sell high [3][4][5]. - **Energy**: - **Crude Oil**: It has a short - term weak shock and a medium - term downward pressure. Selling out - of - the - money call options on SC crude oil is recommended [6][7][8]. - **PVC**: It has a short - term range shock and limited upward space in the medium term. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options [9][10]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig - **Short - term View**: Narrow - range shock [1] - **Medium - term View**: Near - strong and far - weak [1] - **Strategy**: Sell high [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: The average weight of pig slaughter is decreasing, and the weight - reduction rhythm is accelerating due to policy and temperature. The market's ability to digest pork is limited, and the demand for large pigs is in the off - season [1]. - **Demand**: The secondary fattening group may continue to enter the market due to low pig prices, low feed prices, and an expanding standard - fat price difference. Secondary fattening still has a continuous impact on pig prices [1]. - **Market**: The short - term supply - demand mismatch leads to a strong bullish sentiment, but the current supply - demand is weak, and there is no strong driving force for a sharp rise [2]. Sugar - **Short - term View**: Weak shock [3] - **Medium - term View**: Rising first and then falling [3] - **Strategy**: Sell high [4] - **Core Logic**: - **International**: The global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 4.7% year - on - year, with a significant supply surplus. Brazil's gasoline price cut and expected production increase, as well as India's expected large - scale production increase, will put pressure on sugar prices in the medium and long term [4]. - **Domestic**: The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the inventory pressure is small, but the import profit window is open, and the future supply pressure is the core factor restricting sugar prices. The current basis can support the market, but the supply pressure of processed sugar is about to be realized [5]. Crude Oil - **Short - term View**: Weak shock [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [6] - **Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on SC crude oil [6] - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: OPEC + will increase production in August, and may increase production significantly again in early August. The geopolitical premium has declined, and the growth rate of U.S. crude oil production will slow down in the long term [6][7]. - **Demand**: Although the refinery operating rates in major consuming countries are high, the downstream demand has not reached the peak season level. The demand for gasoline and diesel has limited growth [7]. - **Inventory**: The U.S. crude oil inventory has unexpectedly increased, and commercial crude oil inventories will accumulate in the third quarter [8]. PVC - **Short - term View**: Range shock (4800 - 5000) [9] - **Medium - term View**: Limited upward space [9] - **Strategy**: Hold the strategy of selling out - of - the money call options [9] - **Core Logic**: - **Cost**: The supply of calcium carbide has increased, and the price has decreased [9]. - **Supply**: Some PVC plants are under maintenance, but there are new production capacity expectations, and the supply will increase significantly [9][10]. - **Demand**: The low - level rebound of PVC futures prices has boosted the replenishment willingness of some downstream enterprises, but the downstream operating rate is low, and the domestic demand will continue to weaken. The export has short - term support, but there is uncertainty in anti - dumping policies [10]. - **Inventory**: The terminal demand is weak in the off - season, and the PVC inventory has accumulated [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term pig price may have a small - scale rebound, but in the long - term, it will maintain a weak trend due to the supply - demand imbalance [1][2]. - The sugar price will stop falling and rebound in the short - term but will be in a weak oscillation in the medium - to - long - term as the global sugar market is expected to be in surplus [3][4]. - The crude oil price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but will decline in the long - term as the supply increases and demand is restricted [5][7]. - PVC will run strongly in the short - term due to the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict, but its price may face pressure in the long - term as its supply - demand fundamentals are not strong [8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Pig - **Supply**: As of June 20, the average weight of national pig slaughter was 123.78kg, down 0.18kg from the previous week. Due to policy and temperature factors, scale enterprises are accelerating the weight reduction of pigs [1]. - **Demand**: On June 20, the slaughtering rate was 28.13%, slightly up from the previous week. However, consumer demand for pork is low in summer, limiting the further increase of the slaughtering rate [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a continued rise, the medium - term view is a weak operation after a phased rebound, and the recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies [1][2]. Sugar - **International**: Tensions in the Middle East have pushed up oil prices, increasing the proportion of Brazilian sugar mills producing ethanol and reducing sugar supply. Brazil's sugar production in the second half of May increased year - on - year. India is expected to have a large increase in production in the new season, and Thailand is expected to produce 1005 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season [3]. - **Domestic**: As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons year - on - year. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons year - on - year. The sales progress was 72.7%, 6.5 percentage points faster than the same period last year. Imported sugar is expected to increase in the future [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is a stable rebound, the medium - term view is a weak oscillation, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Supply**: The US's raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has escalated the Middle East situation. Although the probability of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low, there is a risk of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel. Non - OPEC resources are expected to expand, and OPEC+ is maintaining a production - increasing strategy [5][6]. - **Demand**: In the US, the refinery operating rate has returned to normal levels, but the downstream demand is poor. In China, the operating rate of major refineries is approaching 80%, and the gasoline consumption has slightly improved, while diesel demand has decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories have declined for four consecutive weeks, while fuel inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks. Oil inventories are expected to accumulate, suppressing the upside of oil prices [6]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is high - level fluctuations, the medium - term view is a downward - pressured operation, and the recommended strategy is a combination of short futures positions and buying call options [5][7]. PVC - **Cost**: The supply of calcium carbide in the northwest region is tightening, and the demand from downstream is weakening. As of June 23, the price of calcium carbide in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained flat [8]. - **Supply**: The 200,000 - ton/year PVC device of Haohua stopped production last week. As of June 20, the weekly operating rate of the PVC industry was 78.62%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week [8]. - **Demand**: Some downstream enterprises have replenished their stocks, but the overall purchasing enthusiasm is not significantly improved. The export situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year, but the current orders have not increased significantly [8][9]. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the social inventory of PVC was 355,100 tons, a decrease of 0.08% from the previous week and a decrease of 41.19% year - on - year [9]. - **Strategy**: The short - term view is range - bound fluctuations, the medium - term view is limited driving force for continuous growth, and the recommended strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report covers different commodity futures and options, presenting diverse views for each variety. For example, for pork, it will likely rebound slightly in the short - term and remain weak in the medium - term; for sugar, it will stop falling and stabilize in the short - term and be weak in a volatile manner in the medium - term; for crude oil, it will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term; for PVC, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but lack strong driving forces for continuous increase in the medium - term [1][2][5][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Pork - **Intraday View**: Slight rebound [1] - **Medium - term View**: Remain weak after the rebound [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Short after the rebound [1] - **Core Logic**: Official measures such as state purchases, bans on secondary fattening, and stricter environmental policies have signaled market price stabilization. In the short - term, changes in the average slaughter weight should be monitored, and in the long - term, policy implementation and capacity reduction are key factors. Overall, the price will likely remain weak after a short - term rebound [1]. Sugar - **Intraday View**: Stop falling and stabilize [2] - **Medium - term View**: Weak in a volatile manner [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [2] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, the tense Middle - East situation and weather conditions in major producing countries affect supply. Domestically, although sales are fast and industrial inventory is down, imports are expected to increase, and the overall 25/26 sugar season is expected to be in surplus, leading to a short - term stabilization and medium - term weakening of sugar prices [3][4]. Crude Oil - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate at a high level [5] - **Medium - term View**: Face pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the profitable position of selling out - of - the - money put options on SC2508 [5] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, the escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical situation and OPEC+ policies affect supply. On the demand side, refinery operating rates are rising, but actual downstream demand is weak. In terms of inventory, commercial crude oil inventory is falling, while fuel inventory is rising. Overall, the price will fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and face pressure in the medium - term [5][6][7]. PVC - **Intraday View**: Show a warm trend [8] - **Medium - term View**: Lack strong driving forces for continuous increase [8] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on PVC at an appropriate time [8] - **Core Logic**: Cost factors such as power rationing in Inner Mongolia affect supply. Supply has decreased due to plant maintenance. Demand from downstream enterprises has some changes, and inventory is decreasing. Overall, it will show a warm trend in the short - term but face pressure as demand seasons change [8][9][10].