Economic Overview - The quarterly GDP growth rate is expected to decline to around 4.5%, influenced by high base effects and a decrease in export growth from 7.2% in July to a range of 5-6% in August [1] - High-frequency data indicates a continued decline in the number of container ships from China to the U.S., reflecting ongoing export downturns [1] - Domestic demand remains weak, with significant drops in automobile and online home appliance sales despite government subsidies [1] - The real estate sector's ongoing decline is likely to continue affecting consumer confidence negatively [1] Market Liquidity and Investment Trends - The Morgan Stanley Free Liquidity Index has turned positive since June, indicating improved liquidity available for financial investments [2] - Approximately 1.5 to 1.7 trillion RMB net inflow into the A-share market in the first half of the year, with two-thirds coming from insurance companies due to regulatory changes [2] - Retail investors contributed an additional 400 to 500 billion RMB in net inflows [2] - There has been a notable increase in deposits from non-bank financial institutions, suggesting a shift of household savings towards the stock market [2] Policy and Structural Adjustments - Recent government measures to combat overcapacity in the petrochemical and refining sectors indicate a deepening understanding of structural economic challenges [3] - The State Council's recent meeting emphasized the continuity of policies and the acceleration of consumer promotion measures [3] - The central bank's liquidity management is shifting towards a neutral stance, focusing more on credit quality rather than urgent support for the stock market [3] Stock Market Leverage - The A-share margin trading balance has surpassed 2 trillion RMB for the first time since 2015, but still represents only 4.8% of the free float market value, slightly below the 10-year average of 4.9% [4] - Despite the increase in margin trading, the current leverage risk in the stock market remains manageable, reducing the likelihood of short-term policy interventions [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply of asphalt raw materials is not scarce, and the "14th Five-Year Plan" demand surge is likely to be disproven. The asphalt price may rise in the short term due to the rebound of crude oil, but the medium - term price is not optimistic. The demand in North China is affected by rainfall, and some traders cut prices for promotion. The East China market focuses on digesting social inventories and prefers low - priced goods. The demand in South China is weak, and social inventories need to be reduced. Some refineries may cut prices. In Shandong and North China, the demand is flat, and the overall supply - demand is loose, with some asphalt prices likely to decline slightly [3] Summary by Related Information 1. Industry Policy - The Chinese government will conduct a comprehensive rectification of the petrochemical and refining industries, gradually eliminate small facilities, and promote the upgrading and transformation of backward production capacity. Petrochemical facilities operating for more than 20 years need technological transformation, and the government will encourage enterprises to shift to the special fine - chemical field [1][2] 2. International Oil - related Data - As of the week ending August 15, the number of active oil rigs in the United States increased by 1 to 412 [2] 3. Geopolitical Events - On August 19, Russia launched a large - scale attack on the energy infrastructure in Ukraine's Poltava Oblast, damaging the ground infrastructure of Ukraine's natural gas transportation system [2] 4. Crude Oil Import Data - In July, India's crude oil imports dropped to 435,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since September 2023. The imports from Russia decreased as some refiners slowed down purchases due to reduced discounts and domestic fuel demand declined during the monsoon season [2] 5. Geopolitical Negotiations - Trump, Zelensky and several European leaders held a multi - party meeting on the Ukraine issue. As long as the negotiations continue, the United States is unlikely to impose stricter sanctions on the crude oil buyers of a certain European country [3] 6. Asphalt Market Conditions - In North China, rainfall hindered terminal construction, and some traders cut prices, dragging down the regional transaction price. In East China, the market focused on digesting social inventories and preferred low - priced goods, with the high - end prices loosening. In South China, the demand was weak, and social inventories needed to be reduced, with some refineries considering price cuts. In Shandong and North China, the demand was flat, and the supply - demand was loose, with some asphalt prices likely to decline slightly [3] 7. Asphalt Price Data - **Spot Prices**: In the East China region, the current spot price is 3720, the previous value was 3720, with a 0 increase; in North China, the current price is 3670, the previous value was 3680, a decrease of 10; in South China, the current price is 3500, the previous value was 3520, a decrease of 20; in Northeast China, the current price is 3915, the previous value was 3912, an increase of 3; in Northwest China, the current price is 4250, the previous value was 4250, with no change; in Shandong, the current price is 3530, the previous value was 3550, a decrease of 20 [1] - **Futures Prices**: For BU2509, the current value is 3493, the previous value was 3490, with a 0.09% increase; for BU2510, the current value is 3454, the previous value was 3453, a 0.03% increase; for BU2511, the current value is 3404, the previous value was 3409, a - 0.15% decrease; for BU2512, the current value is 3354, the previous value was 3357, a - 0.09% decrease [1]