投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-17 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24885.00 8161.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | 202512 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses Russia's financial struggles, particularly the depletion of its National Welfare Fund (NWF), which is being used to cover increasing military and operational costs due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and sanctions from Western nations. The reliance on selling off assets like gold and yuan indicates a dire economic situation for Russia, raising concerns about its financial stability and future. Group 1: Financial Situation - Russia is withdrawing from its National Welfare Fund at a rate of 56 billion rubles per day, indicating severe financial distress [6] - The NWF, originally a reserve for economic emergencies, is now being depleted due to a lack of conventional financial solutions [11] - The fund's composition has shifted significantly, with approximately 60% in yuan and 40% in gold, as Western sanctions have frozen around $300 billion of Russia's foreign reserves [12] Group 2: Economic Challenges - The G7 has imposed a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian oil, severely limiting revenue from oil exports [15] - Russia's oil is being sold at a discount of $20 to $30 per barrel compared to Brent crude, leading to a significant drop in fiscal income [16][18] - The ongoing military operations in Ukraine are estimated to cost Russia billions daily, further straining its finances [20][22] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The sale of yuan and gold is a strategic move to inject liquidity into the economy while managing inflation risks [26] - The actions taken by the Central Bank of Russia, led by Elvira Nabiullina, reflect a delicate balancing act to stabilize the economy amidst crisis [28] - The increased reliance on the yuan for trade and reserves highlights its growing importance and acceptance as a credible currency in international markets [30][32]

Economic Performance - In May, Canada's real GDP decreased by 0.1%, marking a second consecutive month of contraction, consistent with the decline observed in April [1] - The economic downturn in May is primarily attributed to the goods-producing sector, particularly in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction [1] Sector Analysis - The services sector remained stable in May, while the manufacturing sector experienced a growth of 0.7%, partially offsetting the 1.8% decline from April when U.S. tariffs came into full effect [1] - Despite the growth in manufacturing, it is still 1.1% lower compared to March [1]