Core Viewpoint - Economists and analysts warn that President Trump's comprehensive trade policy, which imposes high tariffs on most goods entering the U.S., will lead to significant price increases for consumers, despite recent economic data showing relatively mild overall inflation [1] Group 1: Price Increases and Inflation Data - Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from May indicates price increases in several tariff-sensitive categories, with appliance prices rising 0.8% in both April and May, marking the highest monthly increase in nearly four years [1] - Toy prices have increased for the second consecutive month, rising 1.3%, matching a four-year high [1] - Home goods, tools, and sports equipment prices are accelerating after previously declining in the pandemic years [1] - DataWeave's analysis shows that home and furniture prices have accelerated significantly since January, with increases of 1.1% in February, 2.1% in March, 2.8% in April, 3.7% in May, and 4.7% in June [1] Group 2: Retailer-Specific Price Changes - Clothing and footwear prices remained stable from February to May but saw a slight increase in June, rising 1.7% compared to January [2][3] - Some retailers, such as Walmart and Target, have experienced larger price increases for toys, with prices rising 7.4% and 6.1% respectively since January, compared to an average increase of 3.8% [3] Group 3: Future Price Expectations - DataWeave's CEO predicts broader price increases in the coming months as tariff effects propagate through the supply chain, with expectations of "shrinkflation" and an increase in private label products due to consumer resistance to price hikes [3] - Wells Fargo anticipates that the upcoming June CPI report may mark a turning point, with higher effective tariff rates impacting overall inflation, particularly in core goods categories [3] Group 4: Mechanisms Behind Mild Inflation - Tariffs have been implemented in phases, with the earliest tariffs taking effect in February and March, while most were announced or implemented after April [4] - Trade policies and tariffs are subject to change, with many announced tariffs being delayed, canceled, or unexpectedly adjusted [4] - The transportation of goods takes time, with shipping from other countries to the U.S. potentially taking weeks or more, and domestic supply chains also requiring time to process imported goods [5] - Companies had stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, and some costs have been absorbed by foreign exporters, with Goldman Sachs estimating that about 20% of the additional costs are borne by exporters [6] - Businesses are hesitant to pass on high prices due to weakened consumer spending power, leading to reduced pricing power for companies [6] - Consumer spending is more focused on services during summer, with expectations that product prices will become more significant in household budgets during the fall and winter [6] - Economic data often lags behind current events, with key inflation data for June set to be released soon [6][7] - Rising commodity prices have been reflected in inflation data but are largely masked by falling gasoline prices and slowing price increases in the service sector [7] - Goldman Sachs noted that the effects of tariffs have not yet strongly appeared in official consumer price data, which is not surprising [8]

近期，特朗普将矛头对准至少四家零售商，就可能的关税涨价施压——目前看来，这更多是对企业高管 施加的舆论攻势。"我会盯着你们。"他对沃尔玛发出警告，同时以严厉措辞点名亚马逊、福特和美泰。 局面因白宫坚持"外国承担关税"论调而更加混乱。尽管多家零售商预警压力，白宫发言人莱维特仍 称"特朗普总统致力于保障美国消费者低价，并坚持认为外国将消化关税"，但多数经济学家对此不以为 然。伯恩指出，涨价压力正助长两党关于"贪婪通胀"（指企业危机中攫取超额利润）的叙事，类似拜登 时期对"缩水式通胀"和垃圾费的打压可能在新政府下蔓延。 不过伯恩认为，当前阶段"本质上只是口头施压"。随着关税引发的价格波动可能触发消费者不满，这场 围绕"谁该为关税买单"的角力或将持续升级。 （文章来源：金十数据） 卡托研究所（Cato Institute）经济学家瑞恩·伯恩（Ryan Bourne）指出，美国在政治上距离尼克松时代的 严厉政策仍很遥远，但他观察到近年来政府干预企业定价的意愿正跨越党派界限升温。"我确实担心我 们正滑向这类政策。"他在谈及价格管制时表示。眼下，企业正身处CEO们"越来越需要揣测总统或政府 反应"的环境。 尽管特朗普未明确 ...