Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company, with target prices set at RMB 33.41 and HKD 27.04 respectively [2][6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 312.5 billion for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 102 billion, down 13% year-on-year [2]. - The third quarter saw a revenue of RMB 104.9 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6% and a year-on-year decline of 4% [2]. - The decline in net profit was attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB and lower-than-expected oil production due to typhoons and asset sales in the Gulf of Mexico [2]. - The company has shown resilience against oil price fluctuations, with effective cost reduction and quality improvement measures [2]. Revenue and Production - The company's oil and gas net production reached 578.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with oil liquid and gas production growing by 5.4% and 11.6% respectively [3]. - Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 68.2 per barrel in Q3, down 13.4% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was USD 66.2 per barrel, a decrease of 12.8% [3]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year to 52.2%, with Q3 gross margin at 49.8% [3]. Market Conditions - Oil prices have entered a downward trend due to the end of the peak season and increased supply from OPEC+, with WTI and Brent crude prices reported at USD 60.48 and USD 64.92 per barrel respectively [4]. - The report predicts that global oil supply will face excess pressure, particularly from the Middle East, starting in Q4 2025 [4]. Capital Expenditure and Projects - The company completed capital expenditures of RMB 86 billion in the first three quarters, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, with significant progress in key projects [5]. - New discoveries and projects have been successfully evaluated and put into production, contributing to future growth [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards to RMB 128 billion, RMB 122.9 billion, and RMB 129.6 billion respectively, reflecting a decrease of 3.3%, 2.6%, and 1.9% from previous estimates [6]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9x for 2026, with target prices reflecting the company's high oil production ratio and sensitivity to oil price changes [6].

证券研究报告 中国海油 (883 HK/600938 CH) 2025 年中期策略会速递— 天然气增量可期，提高分红彰显信心 | 华泰研究 | | 更新报告 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 6 月 | 05 日│中国内地/中国香港 | 石油（天然气）开采 | 6 月 4 日中国海油出席了我们组织的 2025 年中期策略会，会上公司详细描 述了今年一季度的经营情况，重申了 25 年全年的产量、资本开支以及分红 指引，同时简要介绍了海外区块及天然气业务的主要成果及未来规划。考虑 公司稳油增气、提质降本效果卓越，抵御油价波动的韧性显著提升，维持 A/H"买入"评级。 关税预期修正，OPEC 连续上调产量目标，5 月油价先反弹后回落 5月中美经贸会谈取得实质性进展，而 OPEC集团连续上调 5-7月产量目标， 油价先反弹后回落。据 Wind，6 月 4 日 WTI/Brent 期货收于 62.85/66.61 美元/桶，较 5 月初上涨 6.1%/4.4%。考虑贸易政策扰动下全球宏观经济及 石油需求预期不确定性仍存，以及 OPEC+内部协同意愿显著趋弱，我们维 持 25-26 年布伦特原 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company in both A and H shares [8]. Core Views - The company achieved a Q1 revenue of 106.9 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 13.1% despite a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.1% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1 was 36.6 billion RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 71.8% [1]. - The company has shown resilience against oil price fluctuations due to effective cost control and production optimization [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 oil and gas net production reached 188.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [2]. - The average Brent crude price in Q1 was 75.0 USD per barrel, down 8.3% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was 72.7 USD per barrel, a decrease of 7.7% [2]. - The company managed to reduce its oil cost to 27.03 USD per barrel, a decrease of 0.56 USD year-on-year [2]. Market Conditions - The international oil prices fell significantly in April due to the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy and OPEC+'s unexpected production increase [3]. - The report predicts Brent crude prices to average 67 USD in 2025 and 66 USD in 2026, with a long-term price floor expected to be above 60 USD per barrel [3]. Project Development - The company successfully launched 7 new projects in Q1, including significant developments in Brazil and Bohai Bay [4]. - Capital expenditures in Q1 were 27.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year, with exploration and development expenditures showing varied trends [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 142.5 billion, 144.1 billion, and 148.4 billion RMB respectively, with EPS projected at 3.00, 3.03, and 3.12 RMB [5]. - The target prices for A and H shares are set at 37.50 RMB and 27.42 HKD respectively, based on a PE ratio of 12.5x for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company A/H shares [5][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 420.5 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 137.9 billion RMB, up 11% year-on-year [1]. - The company has demonstrated strong performance in reserve additions and production growth, alongside effective cost reduction measures [2]. - The report anticipates a decline in oil prices for 2025-2026, adjusting profit forecasts downward but still projecting growth in net profit [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 94.5 billion RMB, a decrease of 14% quarter-on-quarter, and a net profit of 21.3 billion RMB, down 19% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The average Brent price in 2024 was 79.9 USD per barrel, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, while the company's realized oil price was 76.8 USD per barrel, down 1.6% year-on-year [2]. Production and Cost Efficiency - The company's net oil and gas production reached 726.8 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2024, an increase of 7.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company achieved a barrel of oil cost of 28.52 USD, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 3.7 percentage points to 53.6% [2]. Capital Expenditure and Future Projects - The company invested 132.5 billion RMB in capital expenditures in 2024, a 2.2% increase year-on-year, supporting future production and efficiency improvements [4]. - The company made 11 new discoveries and evaluated 30 oil and gas structures, with key projects like the Bohai Zhong 19-2 oil field and deep-sea gas development coming online [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects net profits of 142.5 billion RMB for 2025, down from previous estimates due to anticipated lower oil prices [5]. - The target prices for A/H shares are set at 37.50 RMB and 27.72 HKD, respectively, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.5x for 2025 [5].