2025年已收官，私募年度业绩基本尘埃落定，收获满满。展望2026年，市场怎么走？上涨动力来自哪 里？哪些是重要投资机会？ 包括淡水泉投资、星石投资、玄元投资、清和泉资本、相聚资本等多家主打主观选股策略的国内头部私 募，在最新2026年投资策略展望中认为，A股牛市仍在进程中，但驱动逻辑可能逐渐从流动性转向基本 面，节奏和以往将会不同，从估值驱动有望逐步切换到业绩驱动，选股难度加大，配置价值依然十分可 观，2026年投资机会将围绕出海、人工智能、反内卷、内需等方向展开。 2026年A股市场仍在牛市中 星石投资认为，2025年流动性宽松环境下的估值抬升是股市行情向上的主要驱动。尽管经历了一年多的 结构性修复行情，但当前A股的股债比价显示权益资产总体仍具备相对吸引力，同时股市总市值/居民存 款仍处于历史低位，居民资产配置向股市转移的空间依然广阔。 玄元投资认为，从A股总市值与居民储蓄余额的比值来看，历史数据显示牛市往往在0.4—0.5之间启 动，并可能持续到0.9—0.95附近。目前这个比值大约在0.65，意味着从统计上看行情还没走完。但上涨 的方式可能不再是全面普涨，而是结构性的、有梯队的推进，这种节奏其实更考验 ...

中基协：截至11月末存续私募基金规模22.09万亿元 中基协公布数据显示，截至2025年11月末，存续私募基金管理人19,314家，管理基金数量138,055只，管 理基金规模22.09万亿元。其中，私募证券投资基金管理人7,568家；私募股权、创业投资基金管理人 11,567家；私募资产配置类基金管理人6家；其他私募投资基金管理人173家。（智通财经） 跨年策略攻守兼备 私募提前锁定明年主线 A股市场已步入年度收官阶段。一边是人工智能（AI）、人形机器人、商业航天等主题和概念持续催 化，另一边则是年末资金调仓带来的现实压力。近期"纠结"的盘面，考验着每一位市场参与者的神经。 在科技股的中长期投资逻辑方面，私募机构间几乎没有分歧。然而，当视角切换到年末这一特定时点， 机构间的分歧便清晰地显现出来。以丹羿投资为代表的相对乐观派认为，近期市场已经历了调整，当前 正进入"夯实底部、蓄势待发"的阶段。在他们看来，叠加海外流动性预期改善与国内经济企稳，A股与 港股科技板块在"年底至明年初有望迎来估值修复行情"。 (中证报) 多家银行调降美元存款利率 近日，随着美联储的再次降息，江苏银行、汇丰银行（中国）有限公司等多家银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent restriction of Ningquan Zhiyuan No. 55 private securities investment fund from participating in offline IPOs highlights compliance issues within the industry, signaling a need for enhanced regulatory adherence among institutional investors [1][8]. Group 1: Regulatory Compliance - The China Securities Association (CSRC) has published a list of restricted offline investors, including Ningquan Zhiyuan No. 55, which is barred from participating from June to December 2025 [1]. - Institutional investors may face restrictions if their bidding is deemed unreasonable or if their operations are not compliant with regulations [1][8]. - The CSRC's guidelines specify that offline investors must avoid actions such as false reporting, misleading statements, and improper quoting practices [4]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The inclusion of Ningquan Zhiyuan No. 55 in the restricted list serves as a warning for the industry, emphasizing the importance of compliance across all operational aspects [1][8]. - The restriction reflects broader issues within the industry, such as inadequate risk management and operational processes in offline IPO inquiries [8]. - As regulatory scrutiny increases, the private equity sector is expected to undergo a process of elimination, with a focus on compliance and operational integrity [8]. Group 3: Company Background - Ningquan Asset, established in 2018, manages over 30 billion yuan and is led by founder Yang Dong, who has over 30 years of experience in the securities industry [5].

Core Insights - The A-share market exhibited significant structural characteristics in the first half of 2025, with index-enhanced private equity products delivering impressive returns, averaging 17.32% in yield and 14.17% in excess returns [1] - The performance disparity among private equity firms is notable, with larger firms (over 5 billion yuan) showing superior results compared to medium and small firms [1][2] Performance Analysis - Large private equity firms achieved an average yield of 18.30% and an excess return rate of 14.51%, with 99.25% of their products outperforming benchmark indices [1] - Medium-sized private equity firms (20 billion to 50 billion yuan) had an average yield of 17.30% and an excess return rate of 14.37%, with 96.71% of products outperforming [1] - Small private equity firms (under 10 billion yuan) saw a decline in average yield to 16.41% and an excess return rate of 13.75% [1] Market Trends - The small-cap style dominated the market, significantly boosting the performance of related index-enhanced products, with small-cap index products achieving an average yield of 20.84% [2] - The CSI 1000 index-enhanced products led the performance with an average yield of 20.26%, while the CSI 500 index-enhanced products yielded 15.31% [2] - The CSI 300 index-enhanced products lagged with an average yield of 6.31% and an excess return rate of 6.28% [2] Investment Strategy Insights - The market environment, characterized by high trading volumes and increased volatility, has created favorable conditions for index-enhanced strategies [2] - The relaxation of regulations on mergers and acquisitions has boosted market confidence and liquidity, benefiting quantitative strategies [2] - The focus on small-cap stocks is expected to continue, with potential opportunities in undervalued mid and large-cap stocks as the market undergoes rebalancing [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding international tax regulations for investors considering or already engaging in overseas asset allocation, particularly in light of the implementation of the Common Reporting Standard (CRS) which enhances tax information transparency among countries [2]. Group 1: Overview of CRS and Its Implications - The article discusses the CRS information exchange mechanism and its impact on personal overseas asset income declaration and tax compliance [3][4]. - It highlights the necessity for investors to be well-prepared and informed about tax compliance to navigate the complexities of global investment [2]. Group 2: Expert Insights - The article features insights from Mr. Luo Dawei, a tax partner at RSM China, who has over 20 years of experience in tax services and has worked with numerous multinational and high-growth domestic companies [8][10]. - Mr. Luo's expertise includes tax services related to mergers and acquisitions, IPOs, cross-border investment structuring, and private equity fund consulting [9].

Core Viewpoint - The newly released regulations for commercial banks' agency sales business aim to clarify requirements for selling public and private fund products, enhancing investor protection and promoting industry stability [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new regulations will take effect on October 1, 2025, and provide comprehensive guidelines for banks, public funds, and private funds, reducing uncertainty in the industry [1]. - Commercial banks must conduct a comprehensive evaluation of asset management products targeting private funds, requiring approval from senior management [2][3]. Group 2: Private Fund Access - The regulations set minimum thresholds for private fund management, including a total of at least 500 million yuan for private equity funds and 300 million yuan for private securities funds [2][4]. - Banks are prohibited from directly selling private fund products, but can sell products that invest in private funds under certain conditions [3][5]. Group 3: Approval Process - The approval responsibility for agency sales products lies with the bank's head office, which must authorize the range of products for its branches based on specific criteria [6][8]. - The requirement for senior management approval for products targeting private funds indicates a stricter approach to risk management [6][8]. Group 4: Investor Protection - The regulations emphasize the need for banks to design sales processes and contracts that are understandable for elderly clients and those with limited civil capacity [8]. - Banks are restricted to selling agency products through their own channels, prohibiting outsourcing or embedding sales processes in third-party platforms [9].