Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index leading gains [1] - Gold and silver prices reached new highs amid market fluctuations [1] Stock Market Analysis - The stock market experienced significant adjustments due to external uncertainties, particularly following U.S. President Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on all imports from China starting November 1, 2025 [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.50, down 0.19%, while the ChiNext Index fell 1.11% to 3078.76; however, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index rose by 1.40% [2] - A total of 1682 stocks rose and 3628 fell, with a total trading volume of 2.37 trillion, a decrease of approximately 6.3% from the previous trading day [2] - Resource stocks and self-sufficient sectors led the market, driven by a 37% increase in rare earth mineral prices and export control policies [2] - Precious metals gained traction as a safe-haven asset, with gold futures rising 1.99% to a yearly high, boosting gold stocks [2] Bond Market Analysis - The bond market saw overall gains, with long-term futures leading the way; the 30-year main contract rose by 0.37% [5] - The interbank market maintained a stable and loose funding environment, with the central bank conducting a 1378 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40% [6] - The strong export data for September, which showed an 8.3% year-on-year increase, alleviated concerns about economic downturns [6] Commodity Market Analysis - Precious metals continued to lead the commodity market, with gold and silver prices rising by 1.99% and 2.84%, respectively [7] - The rise in precious metals was attributed to heightened risk aversion due to U.S.-China trade tensions, with gold being favored as a core safe-haven asset [7] - The pig market continued to decline, with futures reaching a new low of 11125 yuan per ton, driven by seasonal demand drops and production delays [8] Trading Hotspots - Recent popular sectors include artificial intelligence, nuclear fusion, and domestic semiconductor manufacturing, driven by increased capital expenditure from global tech giants and domestic companies [11] - The bond market is expected to remain stable due to continued loose monetary policy and rising risk aversion, with potential for a "dual bull" market in stocks and bonds [12]

美元资产前景如何？ 戴旻对第一财经分析称，从宏观经济基本面来看，美国整体经济目前仍处于比较偏稳健的阶段。一方 面，美股上市公司的盈利预期从4月"对等关税"宣布后，起初有所下调，但从4月至今，企业盈利增长预 期一直在往上调，三季度盈利预测约在7%~10%之间。此后，如果利率中枢进一步下行，会对盈利产生 更多支撑。另一方面，虽然美国劳动力市场各项数据在走弱，但总体仍处在一个基本平衡的状态。 结合两方面来看，美国整体仍处在向上的经济周期中，只是增长速度会放缓。此外，这种趋势也受到全 球人工智能（AI）发展周期的推动，AI上游的半导体、芯片目前处于上行周期。AI从2022年底到2023 年初开始发展，去年7月到今年4月，半导体行业处在一个短暂下行周期，但从今年5月开始基本从底部 恢复了。AI周期与宏观周期叠加，使得美国市场面对的基本面处于虽然放缓、但仍稳健的状态。 美联储近期终于重启降息，且后续降息路径基本符合市场此前预期。从股票、信贷再到贵金属，许多资 产价格都被推至历史新高或多年最高水平，市场遍布乐观情绪。虽然美联储降息周期对全球市场和风险 情绪是一大利好，但本轮降息又伴随着对美联储独立性受干预的担忧。此外，特朗 ...