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失业率连续两月回落,提前启动就业攻坚|不老经济学
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-05-19 10:32
21世纪经济报道记者王峰 北京报道国家统计局5月19日发布数据显示,1—4月份,全国城镇调查失业率 平均值为5.2%,与上年同期持平。4月份,全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%,比上月下降0.1个百分点。 5月19日,国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办发布会上介绍,4月份国际 环境更趋复杂严峻,外部冲击影响加大,经济平稳运行难度增加,但经济顶住压力稳定增长,延续向新 向好态势。 反映到就业方面,付凌晖说,我国经济平稳增长,新动能成长壮大,支持重点群体就业创业等政策加力 实施,促进就业保持总体稳定。 就业总体稳定 4月份,我国就业数据发生了同比和环比走势分化的现象。 财通证券宏观首席分析师陈兴认为,从行业角度看,皮革制鞋、木材家具和纺织纺服行业的就业受影响 最大。但根据已有研究发现,出口对就业的影响较小,短期就业市场或仍将保持相对稳定。 今年以来,就业总体稳定。 付凌晖介绍,4月份,全国城镇调查失业率5.1%,比上月下降0.1个百分点,连续两个月在下降。从重点 群体看,农民工和青年人调查失业率有所下降。4月份,全国外来农业户籍劳动力城镇调查失业率 4.7%,比上月下降0.3个百分点;不含在校生 ...
深度 | 关税对就业,影响有多大?——就业问策系列之一【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-11 06:27
Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The total employment driven by exports in China is estimated to be around 120 million people, with exports contributing more significantly to the economy than to employment [1][4][9] - The additional tariffs imposed by the US on China are expected to reduce employment by approximately 0.9% to 1.4%, translating to a potential loss of between 6.684 million and 9.957 million jobs [1][9][12] - Industries most affected by the tariffs include leather and footwear, wood furniture, and textiles, which have high exposure to US revenue and low labor productivity [1][12][13] Group 2: Changes in Employment Environment - The overall employment absorption capacity in China is declining, with GDP growth slowing down leading to an increase in unemployment rates [2][15][18] - The shift from an external to an internal economic cycle is causing a reduction in employment opportunities, particularly in the primary and secondary industries, while the tertiary sector's growth remains slow [2][17][20] - The mismatch between supply and demand in the labor market is exacerbated by factors such as generational wealth transfer, educational mismatches, and a growing preference for stable jobs [2][34][36][37] Group 3: Policies to Stabilize Employment - Continued economic development is essential to create new job opportunities, particularly in the tertiary sector, which has significant potential for employment growth [3][44][46] - Reforming vocational and professional education systems is necessary to align educational outcomes with labor market needs and improve the quality of the workforce [3][48][50] - Enhancing information flow regarding job vacancies, especially in technical fields, is crucial to better match job seekers with available positions [3][50][53]