21世纪经济报道记者王峰 北京报道国家统计局5月19日发布数据显示，1—4月份，全国城镇调查失业率 平均值为5.2%，与上年同期持平。4月份，全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。 5月19日，国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办发布会上介绍，4月份国际 环境更趋复杂严峻，外部冲击影响加大，经济平稳运行难度增加，但经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新 向好态势。 反映到就业方面，付凌晖说，我国经济平稳增长，新动能成长壮大，支持重点群体就业创业等政策加力 实施，促进就业保持总体稳定。 就业总体稳定 4月份，我国就业数据发生了同比和环比走势分化的现象。 财通证券宏观首席分析师陈兴认为，从行业角度看，皮革制鞋、木材家具和纺织纺服行业的就业受影响 最大。但根据已有研究发现，出口对就业的影响较小，短期就业市场或仍将保持相对稳定。 今年以来，就业总体稳定。 付凌晖介绍，4月份，全国城镇调查失业率5.1%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，连续两个月在下降。从重点 群体看，农民工和青年人调查失业率有所下降。4月份，全国外来农业户籍劳动力城镇调查失业率 4.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点；不含在校生 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of tariff policies on the Chinese employment market and the broader economic implications. Core Points and Arguments - **Tariff Impact on Employment**: The estimated impact of tariff policies on China's employment market is between 1% to 1.5%, which is lower than the initial expectation of 3%. The actual employment reduction is estimated to be between 6 million to 10 million jobs [1][3] - **Export Contribution to Economy**: Exports contribute more to the economy than their share of employment due to rising labor productivity, a shift towards capital and technology-intensive industries, and the creation of new job opportunities in emerging sectors [1][4] - **Simplified Tariff Impact Assessment**: Key assumptions for assessing the impact of tariffs include that tariffs only affect goods trade, with manufacturing exports accounting for over 90%, and a baseline tariff level of an additional 34% [1][6] - **Non-Significant Employment Impact**: The non-significant impact of exports on employment is noted, with estimates suggesting a reduction of only 0.16% to 0.2% in employment due to tariffs, indicating that current employment pressures are not as severe as portrayed by some media [1][7] - **Sector-Specific Effects**: Light industries such as leather, wood furniture, and electronics are significantly affected by tariffs, especially those reliant on U.S. revenue. However, their overall impact on total employment is relatively small due to their low share in domestic employment [1][7] - **Economic Environment and Employment**: The slowing GDP growth in China has led to rising unemployment rates, with a structural contradiction arising from industries with high external circulation having stronger job absorption capabilities compared to those with high internal circulation [1][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Challenges in Service Industry Development**: The service industry faces challenges such as demand hierarchy, non-linear growth, and regional disparities, necessitating policy support and structural adjustments to increase its share in the economy [2][9] - **Artificial Intelligence Impact**: The development of artificial intelligence is changing employment demand, with some jobs being replaced, while a significant number of job seekers, particularly youth, face high unemployment rates [11] - **Labor Market Supply Changes**: Changes in labor market supply are influenced by generational wealth transfer, rising educational levels, and a preference for stable jobs, leading to mismatches in the job market [12] - **Policy Measures for Employment Stability**: Current policies to stabilize growth and employment include economic development, service industry enhancement, education reform, and improved job matching through information platforms [13] - **Pathways for Service Industry Development**: The service industry can develop through deregulation, allowing outstanding companies to thrive, while addressing potential structural unemployment among traditional industry workers [14]

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The total employment driven by exports in China is estimated to be around 120 million people, with exports contributing more significantly to the economy than to employment [1][4][9] - The additional tariffs imposed by the US on China are expected to reduce employment by approximately 0.9% to 1.4%, translating to a potential loss of between 6.684 million and 9.957 million jobs [1][9][12] - Industries most affected by the tariffs include leather and footwear, wood furniture, and textiles, which have high exposure to US revenue and low labor productivity [1][12][13] Group 2: Changes in Employment Environment - The overall employment absorption capacity in China is declining, with GDP growth slowing down leading to an increase in unemployment rates [2][15][18] - The shift from an external to an internal economic cycle is causing a reduction in employment opportunities, particularly in the primary and secondary industries, while the tertiary sector's growth remains slow [2][17][20] - The mismatch between supply and demand in the labor market is exacerbated by factors such as generational wealth transfer, educational mismatches, and a growing preference for stable jobs [2][34][36][37] Group 3: Policies to Stabilize Employment - Continued economic development is essential to create new job opportunities, particularly in the tertiary sector, which has significant potential for employment growth [3][44][46] - Reforming vocational and professional education systems is necessary to align educational outcomes with labor market needs and improve the quality of the workforce [3][48][50] - Enhancing information flow regarding job vacancies, especially in technical fields, is crucial to better match job seekers with available positions [3][50][53]