Macro Insights - In October 2025, industrial enterprises' profits fell to -5.5% year-on-year from 21.6% in September, while revenue growth also declined to -3.3% from 3.1% [2] - The cash flow of industrial enterprises continues to improve, with cash and short-term investments rising to 5.3% year-on-year in September from 5% in August [2] Fixed Income Analysis - The report discusses the transition of China's economy into a new phase of old and new driving forces, emphasizing the need for a new framework for fundamental analysis [2] Consumer Sector Strategy - The real estate cycle, particularly changes in real estate prices, is crucial for assessing the recovery of consumption in 2026, with expectations of structural stabilization in housing prices [3] - The current allocation and valuation of the essential consumer sector are at historical lows, indicating a high probability of a bottoming out, suggesting opportunities for investment [3] Aerospace and Defense - The report highlights the advancements in reusable rocket technology, with China actively developing rockets like Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A, which are expected to enhance space transportation capacity and reduce costs [5] - The success of reusable rockets is anticipated to accelerate the construction of large satellite constellations, particularly in satellite internet [5] Company-Specific Insights - BOSS Zhipin (2076 HK) is rated "Buy" with a target price of 107.6 HKD, benefiting from its leading position in online recruitment and expected steady profit growth [6] - Advantest (6857 JP) is also rated "Buy" with a target price of 23,000 JPY, poised to benefit from the increasing complexity of AI chips and the growth of the semiconductor testing market [6] - Gaotu Group (GOTU US) reported a revenue of 1.58 billion CNY for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, with a focus on improving profitability through AI technology [9] - Atour (ATAT US) achieved a revenue of 2.628 billion CNY in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.4%, with a strong outlook for both hotel and retail segments [10] - Zhongjiao Holdings (839 HK) reported a revenue of 7.363 billion CNY for FY25, indicating a year-on-year growth of 11.9%, transitioning towards a focus on internal growth and value enhancement [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $27.88 [7][12]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 2.163 billion RMB, slightly exceeding Huatai's forecast of 2.145 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 13.2%. Adjusted net profit for the same period was 1.023 billion RMB, significantly surpassing the forecast of 924 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 37.6% [1][4]. - The report highlights a recovery in recruitment demand driven by the service and manufacturing sectors, with a 3.4% month-over-month increase in national enterprise recruitment demand in Q3 2025 [2][3]. - The company has seen a solid increase in its monthly active users (MAU), reaching 63.8 million, a 10% year-over-year growth, and a 13.3% increase in enterprise paying users [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was 2.163 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 13.2%, and adjusted net profit was 1.023 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 37.6% [1][4]. - The company provided guidance for Q4 2025 revenue between 2.05 billion and 2.07 billion RMB, indicating a year-over-year growth of 12.4% to 13.5% [4]. User Growth and Demand - The MAU reached 63.8 million, with a year-over-year growth of 10%, and the number of enterprise paying users increased by 13.3% [3]. - The platform added approximately 25% more job postings year-over-year, indicating a robust recovery in recruitment demand, particularly in blue-collar jobs [3][4]. Profitability and Valuation - The adjusted operating profit for Q3 2025 was 904 million RMB, with a profit margin of 41.8% [4]. - The report slightly raised the FY25 revenue forecast by 0.6% to 8.25 billion RMB and adjusted net profit forecasts for FY25 to 3.618 billion RMB, reflecting a 2.8% increase [5][12].

Consumer Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focused on supply-side structural reforms, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes direct stimulation of demand, aiming to significantly boost consumer spending and enhance domestic circulation [2][3] - The goal of the "15th Five-Year Plan" includes increasing the consumer rate and ensuring that domestic demand continues to be the main driver of economic growth, with expectations for retail sales growth to outpace GDP growth [3] - Policies such as government and enterprise subsidies are expected to directly stimulate consumer spending, with a shift from structural optimization to activating consumption [2][3] E-commerce and Retail Innovations - New retail models like live streaming and instant retail are emerging growth areas, leveraging platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou to create new consumer scenarios [4] - Instant retail is evolving from meeting urgent needs to catering to a broader range of consumer demands, creating a positive feedback loop that drives both supply and demand [4][5] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" calls for expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services, with e-commerce platforms expected to focus on balancing price and quality [3][5] Travel and Tourism - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims to enhance the quality of tourism services and promote the integration of culture and tourism, with OTA platforms playing a key role in this transformation [6][7] - Domestic tourism is being enriched through cultural elements, while inbound tourism policies are being optimized to lower barriers and enhance the experience for international visitors [7][8] - OTA platforms are responding to national policies by expanding their service offerings and improving the overall travel experience for both domestic and international tourists [6][7] Technology and AI Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating AI innovation and application, with a focus on enhancing efficiency in existing businesses and driving new demand through AI technologies [9][10] - The demand for cloud computing is surging due to the growing need for AI applications, with Chinese cloud providers expected to benefit significantly from this trend [10] - AI applications are anticipated to revolutionize content production and advertising, with platforms leveraging AI to enhance user engagement and operational efficiency [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $27.62, up from a previous target of $23.11 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 21.02 billion RMB, slightly exceeding Huatai's forecast of 20.7 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 9.7%. Adjusted net profit reached 9.46 billion RMB, significantly above the forecast of 8.48 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 30.8% [1][4]. - The overall recruitment demand continues to recover, with a notable improvement in the supply-demand relationship. The number of monthly active users (MAU) reached 63.6 million, a year-over-year increase of 16.5%, and the number of enterprise paying users grew by 10.2% year-over-year [2][3]. - The company is experiencing scale effects, with a gross margin of 85.4%, up 1.9 percentage points year-over-year. The sales expense ratio decreased by 8.4 percentage points, indicating improved marketing efficiency [3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25-FY27 has been slightly revised upwards to 82 billion RMB, 94 billion RMB, and 106.9 billion RMB, respectively. The adjusted net profit forecast has also been increased to 35.2 billion RMB, 37.7 billion RMB, and 44.5 billion RMB for the same period [4][11]. - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between 21.3 billion RMB and 21.6 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year growth of 11.4% to 12% [2][3]. Financial Metrics - The company achieved an adjusted operating profit of 8.8 billion RMB in Q2 2025, corresponding to a profit margin of 41.9%, which is better than the forecast of 7.9 billion RMB [3][4]. - The report indicates a projected adjusted EPS of 5.71 RMB for 2025, with a PE ratio of 25.92 [10][19]. Market Position - The recruitment demand is showing signs of recovery, particularly in the internet sector, with blue-collar job demand improving since May. Small and micro enterprises are recovering at the fastest pace, with companies having fewer than 20 employees accounting for about 20% of Q2 revenue [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $23.11 [6][4] Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.923 billion RMB, slightly exceeding expectations, with a year-over-year growth of 12.9%. Adjusted net profit reached 692 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 76.2% [1][2] - The demand for recruitment is gradually recovering, with a notable increase in blue-collar job seekers, which now account for over 45% of new users, contributing to a revenue share of over 39% [2][3] - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratio, achieving a gross margin of 83.8% and a profit margin of 36% in Q1 2025, indicating ongoing improvements in profitability [3][4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25-FY27 has been slightly revised upwards to 8.18 billion RMB, 9.38 billion RMB, and 10.67 billion RMB respectively. The adjusted net profit estimates have also been increased to 3.32 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, and 3.96 billion RMB for the same period [4][11] - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between 2.05 billion RMB and 2.08 billion RMB, which aligns with market expectations [2][4] Financial Metrics - The company achieved a cash collection of 2.18 billion RMB in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.3% [2] - The adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was 692 million RMB, with a profit margin of 36%, indicating better-than-expected profit release [3][4] - The report projects an adjusted operating profit of 3.07 billion RMB for the full year 2025 [3][4] Valuation - Based on a DCF valuation method, the target price is set at $23.11, reflecting a perpetual growth assumption of 3% and a WACC of 8.95% [4][11][13] - The company's market capitalization is approximately $7.904 billion, with a closing price of $17.90 as of May 21 [7][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of $23.11 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.923 billion RMB, slightly exceeding the forecast of 1.91 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 12.9%. Adjusted net profit reached 692 million RMB, surpassing the prediction of 617 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 76.2% [1][2]. - The recruitment demand is gradually recovering, with the blue-collar segment accounting for over 45% of new users, contributing to an increase in revenue share to over 39% [2]. - The company has successfully reduced its expense ratio, with a gross margin of 83.8% and a significant decrease in sales expense ratio by 8.5 percentage points year-over-year [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25-FY27 has been slightly revised upwards to 8.18 billion RMB, 9.38 billion RMB, and 10.67 billion RMB respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates increased to 3.32 billion RMB, 3.5 billion RMB, and 3.96 billion RMB [4][11]. - The company expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between 2.05 billion RMB and 2.08 billion RMB, indicating a year-over-year growth of 6.9% to 8.5% [2]. Financial Metrics - The company achieved an adjusted operating profit of 692 million RMB in Q1 2025, corresponding to a profit margin of 36%, which is better than expected [3]. - The report projects an adjusted operating profit of 3.07 billion RMB for the year 2025 [3][12]. Valuation - Based on the DCF valuation method, the target price is set at $23.11, reflecting a perpetual growth assumption of 3% and a WACC of 8.95% [4][13].