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美护商社行业周报:多部门印发消费贷贴息方案,毛戈平盈喜-20250820
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-08-20 03:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [7][30]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, which aims to stimulate consumer spending and support various sectors, including daily consumption and major purchases [4][24]. - In the first seven months of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 28.42 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. The retail sales in July were 3.88 trillion yuan, with a growth of 3.7%, which was below market expectations [4][24]. - The beauty care sector is expected to see significant growth, with companies like Maogeping projecting a revenue increase of 30.4% to 31.9% and a net profit growth of 35.0% to 37.0% for the first half of 2025 [5][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of August 11-15, 2025, the retail trade, social services, and beauty care sectors saw increases of 0.98%, 0.40%, and 0.07%, respectively, ranking 18th, 20th, and 22nd among 31 primary industries [3][15]. - The hotel and restaurant sector led the gains with a 2.06% increase, while the jewelry and tourism sectors experienced declines of -1.17% and -0.54% [3][17]. Key Industry Data and News - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a subsidy policy for personal consumption loans, with a subsidy rate of 1 percentage point, capped at 50% of the loan contract interest rate, effective for one year [4][24]. - The retail sales of goods reached 25.23 trillion yuan in the first seven months, growing by 4.9%, while dining revenue was 3.2 trillion yuan, up by 3.8% [4][24]. Company Announcements - Maogeping expects to achieve revenue of approximately 25.7 billion to 26.0 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net profit of about 6.65 billion to 6.75 billion yuan [5][28]. - Baiya's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 17.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, up by 4.6% [5][28]. - The company Xiaoshangpin achieved a revenue of 77.13 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a growth of 13.99% [5][28].
美护商社行业周报:泡泡玛特业绩预告亮眼,市监局约谈三大外卖平台-20250722
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-07-22 10:44
Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Recommended" rating, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][35]. Core Insights - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China for the first half of 2025 reached 24.55 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 5%. In June, the retail sales totaled 4.23 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, which was below the expected 8.4% due to the timing of the Dragon Boat Festival and the pre-release of demand during the 618 shopping festival [3][23]. - The beauty care sector is highlighted with significant developments, including the strategic expansion of Ai Er Bo Shi in Southeast Asia and the announcement of a new CEO at Kenvue [27][3]. - Bubble Mart is expected to see a revenue increase of no less than 200% and a profit increase of no less than 350% for the first half of 2025 [32][5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From July 14 to July 18, 2025, the trade retail, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced changes of +0.23%, +1.05%, and -0.14% respectively, ranking 18th, 13th, and 22nd among 31 primary industries [14][16]. Key Industry Data and News - In June 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.8%, with a total of 21.8 trillion yuan in goods retail sales for the first half of the year, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [23][22]. - The airline industry saw an increase in passenger flights, with nearly 118,000 flights executed nationwide in the 28th week of 2025, marking a 3.2% year-on-year rise [4][27]. Company Announcements - Bubble Mart's half-year performance forecast indicates a revenue growth of at least 200% and a profit increase of at least 350% [32][5]. - Other companies like Rongzi Co. and Longzi Co. also reported significant profit forecasts, with Rongzi expecting a profit increase of 31.74% to 55.69% [34][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shangmei Co., Juzi Bio, Marumi Bio, and others within the beauty care and new consumption sectors [5][35].
美护商社行业周报:6月CPI同比由降转涨,稳就业政策支持加码-20250715
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-07-15 07:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][31]. Core Insights - The June CPI has turned from decline to increase, with a year-on-year rise of 0.1%, marking the end of four consecutive months of decline. Core CPI also rose by 0.7%, the highest increase in nearly 14 months [3][22]. - The report highlights significant events in the beauty care sector, including the ranking of brands on Tmall and the entry of certain brands into new sales channels [3][23]. - The travel sector shows a recovery with a 5.7% week-on-week increase in flight operations, and a year-on-year increase of 4.1% compared to 2024 [4][28]. Market Performance - For the week of July 7-11, 2025, the retail trade, social services, and beauty care sectors saw increases of +2.20%, +2.11%, and +1.52% respectively, ranking 11th, 13th, and 20th among 31 primary industries [14][19]. - The internet e-commerce, trade, and professional services sub-sectors performed particularly well, with increases of +4.37%, +4.36%, and +4.14% respectively [16][19]. Key Industry Data and News - The report notes that the beauty care category on Tmall saw a shift in brand rankings, with local brands' market share decreasing slightly [23]. - The government has introduced policies to stabilize employment and support market expectations, which are expected to drive economic growth [3][22]. Company Announcements - Guilin Tourism expects a significant profit increase of 142% year-on-year for H1 2025, while Chongqing Department Store reported a net profit increase of 8.74% [29][30]. - Companies like Guibao Pet are investing in smart warehousing to enhance operational efficiency [30]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shangmei Co., Juzhibio, Marubi, Runben, Proya, Chaohongji, Blukoo, and Furuida within the beauty care and new consumption sectors [5][31].
美护商社行业周报:锦波生物引入养生堂战略投资,老铺黄金加密上海布局-20250701
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-07-01 13:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant market performance for the week of June 23-27, 2025, with retail, social services, and beauty care sectors increasing by 4.56%, 4.61%, and 1.04% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 1.91% [14][17]. - Key events include the strategic investment of 3.4 billion yuan by Jianbo Biological into Yangshengtang, and the successful IPO of Yingtong Holdings on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The retail, social services, and beauty care sectors ranked 9th, 8th, and 24th among 31 primary industries, with notable increases in sub-sectors such as education, professional chains, and trade, which rose by 7.47%, 7.42%, and 5.2% respectively [14][17]. Key Industry Data and News - In the beauty care sector, significant developments include the entry of Kefu Mei into Malaysia's Watsons, becoming the first Chinese efficacy skincare brand in the region, and the announcement by the National Medical Products Administration regarding the management of cosmetic raw materials [23][24]. - Jianbo Biological's restructuring of its collagen product to a medical device category and the successful listing of Yingtong Holdings are also noteworthy [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shangmei Co., Ltd., Juzhi Biological, Marubi Biological, Runben Co., Ltd., Proya, Chaohongji, Blukoo, and Furuida as potential investment targets within the highlighted sectors [5][29].
美护商社行业周报:3月社零增速超预期,卡游24年收入破百亿
Guoyuan Securities· 2025-04-20 00:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The social retail sales total for March 2025 reached 4.09 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, exceeding the consensus forecast of 4.36% [2][19] - The total retail sales for the first quarter of 2025 amounted to 12.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [2][19] - The report highlights the ongoing implementation of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, including initiatives to integrate domestic and foreign trade [2][28] Market Performance - During the week of April 14-18, 2025, the Shenyin Wanguo indices for retail, social services, and beauty care sectors increased by 0.24%, 0.14%, and 0.43% respectively, ranking 18th, 21st, and 14th among 31 primary industries [11][12] - The internet e-commerce sector saw a notable increase of 5.69%, benefiting from policies promoting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [12][19] Key Industry Data and News - The report indicates that the retail sales of essential goods and some upgraded products showed strong growth, with food and daily necessities increasing by 12.2% and 6.8% respectively [19][26] - The beauty care sector is witnessing innovation, with companies like Proya launching new products and establishing global brand ambassadors [31][32] - The collectible card game company, Card Game, is set to surpass 10 billion yuan in revenue for 2024, reflecting significant growth in the entertainment sector [34] Company Announcements - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism reported a revenue of 864.12 million yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.64% [41] - Tongcheng Travel announced the acquisition of 100% of Wanda Hotel Management for approximately 2.49 billion yuan [42] - Upme Cosmetics plans to establish a joint venture to create a new cosmetics brand [43]