[ 行业研究|可选消费 证券研究报告 可选消费行业周报、月报 2025 年 08 月 20 日 T a l e [Table_Title] 多部门印发消费贷贴息方案，毛戈平盈喜 ——美护商社行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 i n ] 本周（2025.08.11-2025.08.15），商贸零售/社会服务/美容护理分别 +0.98%/+0.40%/+0.07%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 18/20/22，同期 上证综指+1.70%，深证成指+4.55%，沪深 300+2.37%。 细分子板块来看，本周酒店餐饮/一般零售/专业连锁涨幅居前，分别 +2.06%/+1.55%/+0.95%。饰品/旅游景区跌幅居前，分别为-1.17%/- 0.54%。 本周行业重点事件及资讯 8 月 12 日，财政部联合商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局等相关 部门发布了《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》。贴息比例为 1 个百分点，且最高不超过贷款合同利率的 50%，政策实施期为 1 年。 2025 年 1-7 月社会消费品零售总额 28.42 万亿，同比+4.8%。7 月社 零总额 3.88 万 ...

Core Insights - The marketing landscape in the first week of summer 2025 showcases a diverse and dynamic approach, with brands like Meituan, Lululemon, Xianyu, and Proya engaging users through empathetic and relatable strategies [2][5][6][12][15] Group 1: Innovative Marketing Strategies - Meituan's new advertisement creatively uses "small lobsters as tools," effectively compressing and communicating the core value of the product as "sufficient, full, and cost-effective" through humor and metaphor [5] - Xianyu's appointment of Liu Yuning as its first brand ambassador emphasizes a "immersive identity binding," where the celebrity actively engages with the community rather than merely serving as a symbolic face [8][10] - Lululemon's "Summer Fun Challenge" promotes participation over performance, encouraging users to find their own movement style rather than adhering to traditional fitness standards [10][11] Group 2: Emotional Connection and Brand Identity - Proya's collaboration with actress Kwang Lingling focuses on the theme of "the secret of youth," redefining anti-aging and self-worth through storytelling and emotional resonance rather than just product promotion [14] - The overarching trend in marketing is shifting towards rebuilding relationships, where emotional engagement, rhythm, and participation are prioritized over mere technical execution or budget allocation [15][16] - Brands are increasingly striving to become entities that users want to connect with, share, and remember, reflecting a collective identity rather than a singular brand image [18]

Core Viewpoint - China Lianhe Credit Rating Co., Ltd. maintains the long-term credit rating of Proya Cosmetics Co., Ltd. at AA, with a stable outlook for both the company and its convertible bonds, indicating strong financial health and operational performance [1][3][4]. Company Overview - Proya Cosmetics Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of cosmetics, maintaining competitive advantages in brand recognition, product diversity, and R&D capabilities [4][9]. - The company has a diverse brand portfolio including Proya, Caitang, Off&Relax, and others, covering various segments of the cosmetics market [9][14]. Financial Performance - For 2024, Proya reported a total revenue of 107.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.04%, and a profit of 18.89 billion yuan, up 26.34% from the previous year [4][10]. - As of March 2025, the company had cash assets of 47.34 billion yuan, with a low debt burden reflected in an asset-liability ratio of 28.15% [6][10]. Operational Strategy - The company successfully implemented a "big single product strategy," enhancing its market share in key categories and achieving significant sales growth through online channels [5][15]. - Proya's production capacity increased to 40.118 million units per year, with a focus on flexible production and inventory management [21][22]. R&D and Innovation - In 2024, Proya increased its R&D investment by 21.21%, totaling 2.10 billion yuan, and obtained 25 new patents, enhancing its technological edge [5][16]. - The company has established a European innovation center in Paris to strengthen its R&D capabilities [15]. Industry Context - The cosmetics industry in China is characterized by low technical barriers and high competition, with many players and a low market concentration [12][13]. - The online retail market for cosmetics is growing, with Proya ranking among the top companies in various categories on platforms like Tmall and Douyin [5][12]. Future Outlook - The stable rating outlook suggests that Proya's operational performance and competitive position are expected to improve further, driven by enhanced R&D and brand development [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the leadership transition at Proya, highlighting the challenges faced by the new CEO, Hou Yameng, in shifting the company's focus from marketing to research and development, amidst significant executive turnover and a legacy of high marketing expenses [1][10]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Wang Li, the Vice General Manager and Secretary of the Board, resigned two years before her term ended, indicating potential instability in the company's leadership [4]. - Several key executives, including the R&D Director and Chief Marketing Officer, have left the company recently, suggesting a significant shift in the management team [4][5]. - Hou Yameng, the son of the company's actual controllers, has taken over as CEO, marking a generational transition in leadership [5]. Group 2: R&D and Marketing Focus - Despite Hou Yameng's efforts to enhance R&D hiring, Proya still struggles with the perception of being "heavy on marketing and light on R&D" [10]. - In 2024, Proya's sales expenses reached 5.16 billion yuan, a 30% increase year-on-year, with a sales expense ratio of 48% [10]. - The company's R&D expense ratio has remained around 2%, which is relatively low compared to industry standards, indicating a potential area for improvement [10]. Group 3: Historical Context - Proya's rise can be attributed to effective marketing strategies, including collaborations with influencers and the introduction of popular product lines [8][9]. - The company's founder, Hou Jun Cheng, initially built trust by distributing established brands before launching Proya as its own brand [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan and significant profit growth, indicating robust market positioning and operational efficiency [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 10.778 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.552 billion yuan, up 30.0% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 2.359 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 390 million yuan, a 28.9% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company maintained over 20% profit growth in both Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, benefiting from improved gross margins and cost control [1]. Product Strategy - The company has been reinforcing its "big product strategy" since 2024, focusing on upgrading core product lines and launching new products targeting specific consumer needs, such as whitening and oil control [2]. - The upgrades to existing product lines and the introduction of new series are expected to drive continued double-digit growth on the foundation of over 10 billion yuan in revenue [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 12.584 billion yuan, 14.440 billion yuan, and 16.302 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 16.75%, 14.75%, and 12.89% [3]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.821 billion yuan, 2.121 billion yuan, and 2.440 billion yuan, with growth rates of 17.33%, 16.47%, and 15.06% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.60 yuan, 5.35 yuan, and 6.16 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline with a trading volume of 1.07 trillion yuan, while the largest consumer ETF (159928) slightly dropped by 0.37% with a trading volume of nearly 300 million yuan, indicating high trading activity [1] - Over the past 60 days, there has been a continuous inflow of funds into consumer stocks, totaling nearly 2.6 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Proya, a leading domestic beauty brand, has gained market attention due to its impressive annual and quarterly reports, achieving a consecutive increase in stock price [3] - Proya's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 10.234 billion yuan, with online sales accounting for 95.06% of total revenue, reflecting strong organizational efficiency and brand growth potential [3][4] - In Q1 2024, Proya's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 29% year-on-year, showcasing improved operational quality [4] Group 3: Consumer Sector Earnings - Wuliangye reported Q1 2024 revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, with a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, also up by 5.8% [5] - Among the 41 constituent stocks of the consumer ETF (159928), 22 have released Q1 reports, with 14 showing positive year-on-year growth in net profit, representing 64% [5][7] - Major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs have turned profitable, with net profit growth exceeding 200% [5] Group 4: Financial Metrics - The consumer ETF (159928) has seen a net inflow of nearly 2.6 billion yuan over the past 60 days, with the latest share count reaching nearly 19 billion, maintaining historical highs [8] - The constituent index of the consumer ETF achieved a record net profit of 191.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the previous year, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.44% [8] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio for the consumer ETF is 20.37, which is at a low valuation compared to the past decade, indicating a favorable investment opportunity [8][10]

整理 ｜ 彭倩 #Big News# 增长压力之下，雀巢中国换帅 雀巢中国的首位本土 CEO 卸任。 近日，雀巢宣布现任雀巢大中华区董事长兼 CEO 张西强辞任，由现任菲律宾市场负责人马凯思 （Kais Marzouki）接替。这是雀巢集团自去年10月宣布不再将中国市场设立为独立大区后（今年1 月1日起生效），推出的一项人事调整举措。 由于中国市场曾表现颇佳，雀巢曾在2022年为其单独设立大中华区，张西强同年成为雀巢中国首位 本土CEO。中国是雀巢的第二大市场，一直被寄予厚望，张西强在上任时也曾为雀巢中国制定较为乐 观的增长计划：雀巢中国区要在2025年实现600亿小目标，在2030年实现1000亿大目标。 翻看过去3年的财报，雀巢中国区的体量分别为401.6亿元、436亿元和408.69亿元，遇到增长瓶 颈，与张西强曾制定的2025年达到600亿的目标也相差较大。 如今，全球消费市场正处于周期性波动，雀巢在内的一系列外资企业都需要更好的让产品适应当地市 场消费者需求和习惯的变化。 雀巢曾公开表示对中国市场的反思，前 CEO 施耐德曾表示，过去10年，雀巢在中国多项投资没有成 功，如对花生牛奶品牌银鹭的收购， ...

品牌矩阵中，彩妆品牌彩棠为第二大收入来源，营收达到11.91亿元，同比增长19.04%，但其在2023年 和2022年的同比增速高达75.06%和132.04%，这一数据断崖式下跌也与近两三年来彩妆消费市场疲软有 关。不过，另一个新秀彩妆品牌"原色波塔"在今年的销售额甚是亮眼，营收达到1.14亿元，同比增长 138.36%，该品牌在2023年之前都是并入了其他品牌计算，今年才得以单独计算业绩。除了化妆品，珀 莱雅旗下的洗护品牌Off&Relax的营收增速在近两年一直保持在70%左右，是珀莱雅矩阵品牌下增速表 现最为稳定的，其对总营收的贡献占比也相比于其他品牌有显著的逐年上升的趋势，从2022年的1.98% 提升至3.42%。 线上渠道对营收贡献大，但拖累盈利水平 2024年珀莱雅在线上渠道经营能力依然突出。2024年线上的业务收入达到102.34亿元，同比增长 23.68%，其占到总营收的比例在逐年攀升，2022年-2024年分别占比为90.98%、93.07%和95.06%。线上 渠道的优势也可以从具体品牌的销售情况看到。2024年度，珀莱雅天猫旗舰店成交金额首次跃居天猫美 妆第1，获抖音美妆排名第2，获京 ...

此外，同时发布的年度分配计划显示，珀莱雅拟每10股派现11.9元(含税)，分红总额4.69亿元(含税)，2024年现金分红(含回购金额)占归母净利润40.07%。通 过集中竞价回购1.53亿元(含税)，上市以来公司累计分红及回购金额超20亿元，真金白银回馈股东。 洗护品牌Off&Relax定位亚洲头皮健康养护专家，升级大单品"OR蓬松洗发水2.0"，联合权威机构发布《亚洲人头皮健康白皮书》，2024年营收3.68亿元，同 比增长71.14%，天猫双店成交金额逆势增长80%，抖音双店增长超100%。 多品牌矩阵释放增长新动能 珀莱雅2024年业绩爆发，得益于"科技驱动产品、多品牌协同、全域渠道融合"三大战略协同发力。 主品牌珀莱雅全年贡献营收85.81亿元，占比近80%，展现强劲增长韧性。在电商平台竞争中，天猫旗舰店成交金额跃居美妆类目第一，抖音平台位列第 二，京东平台排名第五且国货第一。产品端持续深化"大单品策略"，升级红宝石、源力系列，推出美白光学、油皮净源等新品；营销层面围绕性别平等、家 庭责任等议题策划"谢谢记得""回声计划"等活动，实现品牌价值与销售业绩双提升。 渠道布局上，珀莱雅推进线上线下（300 ...