业绩稳健增长，控费良好 巨子生物(2367) ——巨子生物 2025 半年报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | | | 闫清徽(分析师) | 021-38031651 | yanqinghui@gtht.com | S0880522120004 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (港元)： | 52.25 | | 杨柳(分析师) | 021-38038323 | yangliu3@gtht.com | S0880521120001 | | | | 李艺冰(分析师) | 021-38676666 | liyibing@gtht.com | S0880525050001 | | | 本报告导读： 公司 2025H1 营收、归母净利润同比+23%、20%，业绩稳健增长，费用管控良好、 销售费用率同比下降 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][18] Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 met market expectations, with revenue of 3.113 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.18 billion RMB, up 20.2% [8] - The company is expected to accelerate growth in H2 2025, with a focus on new product launches and expanding direct sales channels [2][8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,524 million RMB - 2024: 5,539 million RMB - 2025E: 7,066 million RMB - 2026E: 8,842 million RMB - 2027E: 10,691 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 49% for 2023, 57% for 2024, and gradually decreasing to 21% by 2027 [4][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 1,452 million RMB in 2023 to 3,726 million RMB in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 45% in 2023 and 19% in 2027 [4][9] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain high, around 82-84% over the forecast period [4] Product and Market Insights - The company's flagship product, 可复美, generated revenue of 2.54 billion RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.7% and accounting for 81.7% of total revenue [8] - New product launches, including the upgraded 胶原棒 2.0 and the 焦点面霜, have been well received in the market, contributing to revenue growth [8] - Direct sales revenue reached 2.33 billion RMB in H1 2025, up 26.5%, with significant growth in both online and offline channels [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.54 billion RMB, 3.12 billion RMB, and 3.73 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 16, and 14 [8][9] - The company is well-positioned in the collagen protein market, with ongoing expansion into medical aesthetics and B2B segments anticipated to drive future growth [8]

5月27日晚间，美妆博主大嘴博士在其微博、微信公众号等社交媒体再度发文(视频)，质疑巨子生物检测报告中的检测方法和检测产品问题。 有机构研报称，尽管巨子生物迅速否认指控，但此类负面宣传仍可能影响消费者情绪，进而损害可复美在即将到来的618促销活动中的表现。618购物节向来 是美妆行业的销售旺季，众多品牌都会在这个时期加大营销投入，争取取得亮眼的销售成绩。可复美作为巨子生物的核心品牌，原本也对618寄予厚望。但 如今这场风波让可复美的618之路充满不确定性。若在618前夕，第三方检测结果仍未公布，消费者的观望情绪可能会持续加重，这无疑将对可复美的销售业 绩造成重大打击。 有意思的是，巨子生物内部检测5月24日开始，当天就出了结果，送往第三方检测已经过去三天了，结果却迟迟没能披露。无论是吃瓜的网友，还是美妆行 业人士，都在等第三方检测结果，也在等有关监管部门介入调查后的一个权威答案。只有权威的检测结果和清晰的解释，才能让消费者重新建立对品牌的信 任，也才能让整个事件尘埃落定。而对于巨子生物而言，如何妥善应对此次危机，化解消费者的疑虑，将是其面临的重大挑战。 此外，"大嘴博士"质疑，巨子生物内部检测的产品是胶原棒2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the beauty industry [3] Core Insights - The beauty industry is experiencing stable growth, with a notable performance in the collagen restructuring segment [1][5] - The overall revenue growth for the cosmetics sector has shown slight improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% in Q1 2025, recovering from previous negative growth [12][19] - The average revenue growth for the cosmetics industry is projected to be 8% in 2024, followed by a decline to -5% in Q1 2025, indicating a trend of increasing differentiation among brands [19] Summary by Sections Cosmetics - The cosmetics industry has shown a steady growth rate, with Q1 2025 marking a recovery from three consecutive quarters of negative growth [12] - Online sales channels, particularly Tmall and Douyin, have seen significant growth, with a combined increase of 17% in Q1 2025 [12] - The average revenue growth for brands has been more resilient compared to upstream and downstream segments, with mid-sized brands like Marubi and Runben achieving good growth despite a generally weak market [19] Medical Beauty - The medical beauty sector has seen a convergence in revenue, while the collagen restructuring segment continues to maintain high growth rates [1][5] Revenue and Profitability - The average revenue growth for the cosmetics industry has been declining, with a notable differentiation in performance among brands [19] - The average gross margin for the brand segment has slightly increased, attributed to improved business structure and price control measures [20] Product Innovation - Brands are focusing on upgrading main product lines and expanding functional categories, particularly in sun protection and whitening, with increased competition expected [25] - New product launches include significant upgrades in major brands like Proya and Bethany, focusing on whitening and sun protection [24][25] Expenses and Profit Margins - The average sales expense ratio for brands has increased, reflecting heightened competition and rising platform costs [26] - The gross profit margin has generally decreased across the industry, although leading brands like Proya have managed to improve their margins through effective cost management [26][35] R&D and Management Expenses - There is a trend of increasing R&D investment among leading brands, with a shift towards foundational research [45] - Management expense ratios have shown a divergence, with leading companies optimizing their expenses while others have seen increases due to business adjustments [45]