注射类新品将开启公司第二增长曲线。中国医美注射类市场空间广阔，据F&S 预测，2027 年中国医美 注射市场规模将达到1,470 亿元，其中注射类胶原蛋白市场规模预计将达168 亿元，赛道具备高增长潜 力。目前，国内已获批面部注射用重组胶原蛋白产品共4 款。除巨子生物此次获批产品外，另有锦波生 物的重组III 型人源化胶原蛋白冻干纤维（薇旖美）和注射用重组III 型人源化胶原蛋白凝胶（重源新生 HiveCOL），以及锦波生物与修丽可合作推出的注射用重组III 型人源化胶原蛋白溶液（铂研）。巨子 生物本次获批产品与薇旖美、铂研均作用于真皮层，针对额部动力性皱纹填充，未来或将在眼部及面部 抗衰场景展开竞争。我们认为，巨子生物具备较强的渠道优势：一方面，可复美医用敷料在医美终端积 累了深厚渠道网络和品牌认知；另一方面，近期推出的可复美帧域密修系列精准覆盖医美术后修复人 群，进一步强化了医美渠道渗透力。因此，注射类新品的市场潜力有望快速兑现，成为驱动公司增长的 核心引擎之一。 机构：招银国际 研究员：武煜/王云逸/张苗 巨子生物的首款注射用重组胶原蛋白产品——重组I 型α1 亚型胶原蛋白冻干纤维获批上市，用于面部真 ...

Macro Commentary - The core objective of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) emphasizes high-quality development, shifting focus from GDP growth to technological self-reliance and economic transformation [2][4] - Key strategic industries highlighted include artificial intelligence, semiconductors, advanced robotics, green energy, aerospace, and industrial software [2] - The plan aims to rebalance the economy towards consumption-driven growth, with increased investment in social services such as healthcare and elder care, benefiting sectors like consumer staples and healthcare [2][4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,968, up 0.72% year-to-date performance is 29.45% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,922, with a year-to-date increase of 17.03% [2] - U.S. markets showed positive performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.27% and the S&P 500 up 0.49% [2][4] Company Analysis - **Giant Bio (2367 HK)**: The approval of its first injectable aesthetic product marks the beginning of a new growth phase for the company. The product is aimed at facial dermal filling to correct dynamic wrinkles [5][6] - The company has a strong channel advantage due to its established network and brand recognition in the aesthetic market, which is expected to drive growth [5] - **Thermo Fisher (TMO US)**: Reported a strong 3Q25 performance with a revenue increase of 5.0% year-on-year and an adjusted EPS growth of 9.7%. The company raised its full-year guidance based on robust performance [6][7] - The demand from pharma and biotech clients is showing positive signs, with revenue growth driven by bioproduction and analytical instruments [7][8] - The company is expected to benefit from the trend of pharmaceutical companies establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S., which will reflect in its performance by 2027-2028 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by the performance of its brands and online sales channels [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 1H2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.18 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit reached 1.21 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.4% increase compared to the previous year [1] Product Performance - The company's professional skincare products generated revenue of 3.10 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 22.5% [1] - Efficacy skincare products accounted for 2.41 billion yuan in revenue, growing by 24.2% and representing 77.4% of total revenue [1] - The medical dressings segment generated 690 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.1% [1] - The company's brands, 可复美 and 可丽金, reported revenues of 2.54 billion yuan and 500 million yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 22.7% and 26.9% [1][2] Sales Channels - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) online sales reached 1.82 billion yuan, up 13.3% year-on-year [2] - E-commerce platform sales surged to 390 million yuan, a significant increase of 133.6% [2] - Offline direct sales grew to 120 million yuan, reflecting a 74.3% increase [2] - The company has expanded its offline presence with 24 brand stores across various cities by the end of 1H2025 [3] Market Expansion - 可复美 has entered the Southeast Asian market by partnering with Watsons in Malaysia [3] - The company continues to enhance its online multi-platform strategy and refine operations, benefiting from the rapid expansion of beauty categories on platforms like JD.com [3] Profitability and Cost Management - The company's gross margin slightly decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 81.7%, attributed to changes in product mix and a decline in the proportion of high-margin medical dressing revenue [3] - Sales, management, and R&D expense ratios were 34.0%, 2.7%, and 1.3%, respectively, with a decrease in sales expense ratio due to a higher proportion of low-cost channels [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates accelerated growth in the second half of the year, driven by increased brand marketing efforts and the potential approval of new medical aesthetic products [4] - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2.59 billion, 3.45 billion, and 4.48 billion yuan, respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing steady growth in revenue and net profit, with a focus on cost control and the performance of key products and new launches [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenue of 31.13 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.82 billion RMB, up 20.2% [1]. - The adjusted net profit for H1 2025 was 12.05 billion RMB, reflecting a 17.4% year-on-year growth [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 81.7%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix and an increase in the proportion of skincare products [1]. Group 2: Cost Management - The company has effectively controlled expenses, with sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio at 34%, 2.7%, and 1.3% respectively, showing a decrease of 1.1, an increase of 0.1, and a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 38%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, but the gross sales difference improved year-on-year [1]. Group 3: Product Development and Market Performance - The company launched the upgraded Collagen Stick 2.0 under its main brand, which focuses on basal membrane barrier repair and achieved top sales during the 618 shopping festival [3]. - The company is focusing on new product launches, including the Rejuvenation Series and the Star Cream, which continue to perform well in the market [3]. - The DTC online direct sales channel and e-commerce platform sales saw significant growth, with revenue of 18.16 billion RMB and 3.91 billion RMB respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 13% and 134% [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][18] Core Insights - The company reported a steady growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with year-on-year increases of 23% and 20% respectively, indicating strong performance and effective cost control [2][10] - The sales expense ratio has decreased year-on-year, highlighting improved operational efficiency [10] - The company is focusing on the performance of key products and new launches, which are expected to drive future growth [10] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,524 million RMB, with a growth forecast to 5,539 million RMB in 2024, and reaching 10,402 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.4% [4][12] - Net profit is expected to grow from 1,452 million RMB in 2023 to 3,795 million RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of 23.4% [4][12] - The company maintains a high gross profit margin, projected at 81.7% for the first half of 2025, despite a slight year-on-year decrease [10] Revenue Breakdown - For the first half of 2025, revenue from various channels showed significant growth: DTC online direct sales increased by 13%, e-commerce platform direct sales surged by 134%, and offline direct sales rose by 12% [10] - The main brand, "可复美," launched upgraded products that performed well in the market, indicating strong brand momentum [10] Product Development - The company continues to innovate with new product launches, including an upgraded collagen stick and a new skincare series, which are expected to enhance market presence and meet consumer demands [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.113 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.182 billion yuan, up 20.2% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 81.68%, a slight decrease of 0.72 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 37.99%, down 0.61 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The sales expense ratio improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year to 34.01%, while the management expense ratio increased by 0.07 percentage points to 2.65% [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company's brand "可复美" generated revenue of 2.54 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [2] - The "可丽金" brand achieved revenue of 500 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 26.9% year-on-year [2] Channel Performance - Direct sales channels contributed 2.325 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 74.7% of total revenue, with DTC channels generating 1.816 billion yuan [3] - The company has expanded its offline presence, covering approximately 1,700 public hospitals and 3,000 private hospitals and clinics, along with over 130,000 pharmacy stores [3] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.505 billion yuan, 3.102 billion yuan, and 3.732 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21, 17, and 14 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [7][30]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, which aims to stimulate consumer spending and support various sectors, including daily consumption and major purchases [4][24]. - In the first seven months of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 28.42 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%. The retail sales in July were 3.88 trillion yuan, with a growth of 3.7%, which was below market expectations [4][24]. - The beauty care sector is expected to see significant growth, with companies like Maogeping projecting a revenue increase of 30.4% to 31.9% and a net profit growth of 35.0% to 37.0% for the first half of 2025 [5][28]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of August 11-15, 2025, the retail trade, social services, and beauty care sectors saw increases of 0.98%, 0.40%, and 0.07%, respectively, ranking 18th, 20th, and 22nd among 31 primary industries [3][15]. - The hotel and restaurant sector led the gains with a 2.06% increase, while the jewelry and tourism sectors experienced declines of -1.17% and -0.54% [3][17]. Key Industry Data and News - The Ministry of Finance and other departments announced a subsidy policy for personal consumption loans, with a subsidy rate of 1 percentage point, capped at 50% of the loan contract interest rate, effective for one year [4][24]. - The retail sales of goods reached 25.23 trillion yuan in the first seven months, growing by 4.9%, while dining revenue was 3.2 trillion yuan, up by 3.8% [4][24]. Company Announcements - Maogeping expects to achieve revenue of approximately 25.7 billion to 26.0 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a net profit of about 6.65 billion to 6.75 billion yuan [5][28]. - Baiya's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 17.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, up by 4.6% [5][28]. - The company Xiaoshangpin achieved a revenue of 77.13 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a growth of 13.99% [5][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [2] Core Views - Domestic demand remains a crucial driver for economic growth, with a positive outlook on leading consumer companies and a focus on AI+ consumption investment opportunities [2] - The Chinese government is expected to have more room for fiscal and monetary policy adjustments, which will further support domestic demand as a key growth driver [2] - As the economy gradually recovers and market expectations for stable growth policies increase, discretionary consumption is anticipated to see improvements in performance and valuation [2] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The social service index fell by 2.82% from February 24 to February 28, 2025, ranking 25th among 31 industry indices [5] - The retail index increased by 1.55% during the same period, ranking 13th, with a cumulative increase of 8.15% since the beginning of 2024 [5] - The beauty care index rose by 1.67%, ranking 12th, but has seen a cumulative decline of 11.66% since the start of 2024 [5] Sub-Industry Dynamics Restaurant and Tourism - Greenland Group aims to achieve over 10 billion yuan in tourism revenue within five years [13] - Tongcheng Travel integrates AI technology to enhance user experience in travel solutions [13] Retail - The duty-free sector shows strong growth, with a significant increase in visitor numbers during the Spring Festival [16] - Major retail players like Yonghui Supermarket are expanding their presence through strategic partnerships [17] Beauty and Personal Care - The rise of private label brands is notable, with significant sales achievements in the cosmetics sector [19] - New product launches and technological advancements are driving growth in the beauty industry [20] Company Updates - Key companies in the social service sector, such as Kerui International, reported a revenue increase of 20.60% for 2024 [23] - Beijing Renli announced a strategic transfer of its subsidiary, reflecting ongoing adjustments in corporate structure [25] - Focus on digital transformation is evident in companies like Lianhua Supermarket, which raised funds for business ecosystem upgrades [18]