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贵金属及基本金属
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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20250731
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 02:41
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Gold: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations [2] - Silver: Declines from a high level [2] - Copper: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices [2] - Zinc: Narrow - range fluctuations [2] - Lead: Inventory increase puts pressure on prices [2] - Tin: Range - bound fluctuations [2] - Aluminum: Slight fluctuations; Alumina: Prices weaken; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity [2] - Stainless steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 773.78 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the night - closing price was 770.68 with a decline of - 0.32%. For silver, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9192 with a decline of - 0.03%, and the night - closing price was 9090.00 with a decline of - 1.32%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed [5]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: The Fed has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, with two voting members supporting rate cuts. China plans to hold the 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee. Trump imposes a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper [5][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is - 1, and silver trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [9]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,930 with a daily increase of 0.11%, and the night - closing price was 78700 with a decline of - 0.29%. The trading volume and positions of relevant contracts changed, and there were also changes in spot prices and spreads [11]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Trump imposes a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper, excluding cathode copper and refined copper. Freeport - McMoRan has not seen the details of the US copper import tariff plan [10][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22670 with a daily increase of 0.07%, and the closing price of LME Zinc 3M was 2814.5 with a daily increase of 0.32%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various spreads [14]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Trump will impose a 25% tariff on India, and the US Q2 GDP growth is better than expected [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [16]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16890 with a decline of - 0.06%, and the closing price of LME Lead 3M was 2020 with a daily increase of 0.12%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and inventory [17]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and Trump has trade - related actions [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 267,870 with a daily increase of 0.45%, and the closing price of LME Tin 3M was 33,410 with a decline of - 0.62%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and inventory [21]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: There are various macro - economic events such as Fed's interest - rate decision and Trump's tariff policies [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [24]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For aluminum, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20625, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, and various spreads. For alumina, the closing price of the main contract was 3326, and for cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 20070 [26]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: There are macro - economic events such as the Politburo meeting and Fed's interest - rate decision [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is - 1, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [28]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 121,720, and the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,920. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various spreads in the industrial chain [29]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: There are industry - related events such as the potential halt of nickel exports from Ontario to the US and production - related issues in Indonesian nickel - iron smelters [29][30][31] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33]