⾥⾯真的没什么好东⻄…… 总的来说，美国宏观经济今⽇表现超出预期（但正如我们所指出的，整体表现喜忧参半）…… https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-black-gold-bid-amid-mixed-macro-creaky-consumer-tehran-tensions 1/10 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-black-gold-bid-amid-mixed-macro-creaky-consumer-tehran-tensions 2/10 宏观经济形势复杂多变、消费疲软、德⿊兰局势紧 张之际，债券和⽯油市场需求旺盛。 泰勒·德登 2026年2⽉20⽇，星期五 - 上午5:00 今天有很多引⼈注⽬的新闻标题：从喜忧参半的国内宏观经济形势（选择你⾃⼰的冒险——良好的 失业救济申请⼈数、疲软的房地产市场、巨⼤的贸易逆差）到围绕伊朗的地缘政治⻛险（再次）升 温；从消费裂痕显现（沃尔玛前景疲软，KLAR股价暴跌）到 私⼈信贷"⾦丝雀"发出警报（Blue Owl关闭了⼀只基⾦）。 2026/2/20 09:52 宏观经济 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar will increase synchronously, with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, and the market may move in a range. It is recommended to consider operating the RB2605 contract in the range of 3000 - 3100, paying attention to market changes and risk control. Also, it is suggested to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [9][60] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: As of February 13, the price of the rebar main contract was 3055 yuan/ton (-22), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3250 yuan/ton (-10). Rebar output decreased to 169.16 tons (-22.52), with a year - on - year decrease of 8.99 tons. Apparent demand dropped to 101.91 tons (-45.73), with a year - on - year increase of 37.74 tons. Total rebar inventory increased to 586.82 tons (+67.25), with a year - on - year decrease of 232.54 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.53%, a decrease of 0.86 percentage points from last week and 12.12 percentage points from last year [7] - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the US non - farm payrolls in January increased by 130,000, far exceeding market expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts slowed down. Trump, as the prime minister, said that reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred" option. Domestically, in January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month, rising for four consecutive months. The central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of six - month outright reverse repurchase operations on February 13, with 500 billion yuan of six - month outright reverse repurchases maturing in February, indicating a sixth consecutive month of increased roll - overs with an additional amount of 500 billion yuan. In terms of cost, affected by weather, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased, and domestic port inventories turned from increasing to decreasing. Due to the shrinking terminal demand during the Spring Festival and the fact that steel mills mainly consumed in - plant inventories after the festival, iron ore prices were weak. During the Spring Festival, more links in the coking coal and coke industry chain shut down, downstream demand weakened, and the inventory of coking coal and coke accumulated to a reasonable range, with futures prices continuing to oscillate weakly. Technically, the center of the RB2605 contract moved down, the futures price was below the 3100 mark, and the moving average combination was in a short - term arrangement; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were moving down, and the green bar was stable [9] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: This week, the RB2605 contract oscillated weakly and was stronger than the RB2610 contract. On the 13th, the price difference was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan/ton. On February 13, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 34,297 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,682 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the rebar futures contract was 32,781 lots, an increase of 2,064 lots from the previous week [14][21] - **Spot Market**: On February 13, the spot price of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3304 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was stronger than the futures price. On the 13th, the basis was 195 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12 yuan/ton [27] 3.3. Upstream Market - **Raw Material Prices**: On February 13, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 803 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1610 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week [31] - **Arrival and Inventory**: From February 2 to 8, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 24.556 million tons, a decrease of 2.136 million tons from the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.613 million tons, a decrease of 1.234 million tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.64 million tons, a decrease of 0.247 million tons. This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 177.3212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.8256 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.6717 million tons, an increase of 0.959 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 80.7348 million tons, a decrease of 0.1579 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 59.2887 million tons, a decrease of 0.9956 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 116.0593 million tons, a decrease of 1.6979 million tons [37] - **Coking Plant Situation**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.97%, an increase of 0.74%; the daily average coke output was 503,700 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons; the coke inventory was 437,500 tons, a decrease of 89,000 tons; the total inventory of coking coal was 11.1809 million tons, an increase of 234,000 tons; the available days of coking coal were 16.7 days, an increase of 0.18 days [41] 3.4. Industry Situation - **Supply Side** - **Crude Steel Production**: In December 2025, China's crude steel production was 68.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. In 2025, the annual crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [45] - **Rebar Production**: On February 13, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.13%, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.15 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.41%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.81 percentage points; the daily average pig iron output was 2.3049 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 191,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons. On February 12, the weekly output of rebar from 139 building material production enterprises was 1.6916 million tons, a decrease of 225,200 tons from the previous week and 89,900 tons from the same period last year [48] - **Electric Arc Furnace Steel**: On February 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of rebar from 139 building material production enterprises was 37.08%, a decrease of 4.94% from the previous week and 1.97% from the same period last year. This week, the average operating rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 28.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 29.07 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.48 percentage points. Except for the Northeast and Northwest regions which remained flat, other regions decreased significantly [51] - **Rebar Inventory**: On February 12, the in - plant inventory of rebar from 137 building material production enterprises was 1.6359 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 99,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 737,000 tons. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 4.2323 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 573,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.5884 million tons. The total rebar inventory was 5.8682 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 672,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3254 million tons [54] - **Demand Side**: In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The new construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a decrease of 20.4%. The completed area was 603.48 million square meters, a decrease of 18.1%. From January to December 2025, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline transportation investment increased by 36.0%, multimodal transport and transport agency investment increased by 22.9%, and water transport investment increased by 7.7% [57] 3.5. Options Market - **Options Strategy**: After the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of rebar will increase synchronously, with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined, and the market may move in a range. It is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60]

Economic Growth and Targets - China's GDP growth target for 2026 is likely to remain around 5%, balancing short-term stability and long-term structural transformation [2][3] - The economic growth in 2025 is expected to achieve a target of 5%, with a quarterly growth rate of approximately 4.6% in Q4, indicating a "high first, low second" trend throughout the year [3] Consumption and Investment Trends - Consumption is expected to see a slight recovery in 2026, but growth will be limited due to policy, income, and balance sheet constraints, with a focus on structural upgrades in service consumption and new consumption scenarios [5][6] - Investment growth is projected to stabilize in 2026, driven by infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, with a notable shift towards new infrastructure projects such as 5G and AI [6][7] Export Performance - China's exports are anticipated to maintain resilience, with a projected growth rate of around 5% for the year, supported by market diversification and product structure upgrades [8][9] Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise moderately in 2026, driven by service price increases, while PPI is projected to see a narrowing of its decline due to rising prices in emerging industries and resource products [10] Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, focusing on precise measures to support the real economy and maintain liquidity [11][12] - Fiscal policy is set to remain actively expansive, with an emphasis on social welfare and debt management, alongside a significant increase in the deficit to support major projects [13][14] Overall Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is in a phase of moderate recovery and structural adjustment, with new growth drivers such as technological innovation and manufacturing upgrades laying the foundation for long-term growth [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the long - term and suggest buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal suggests short - term trading; Rebar suggests range trading; Glass suggests selling on rallies [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests closing long positions on rallies and waiting; Aluminum suggests strengthening observation; Nickel suggests waiting and seeing; Tin suggests range trading or taking profits on previous long positions; Gold suggests range trading; Silver is expected to be relatively strong; Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC suggests a low - buying strategy; Caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary waiting; Styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol suggest range trading; Polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust in a range; Apples and jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs suggest waiting for rallies to short; Eggs suggest not shorting in the short - term; Corn suggests caution when chasing highs and waiting for rallies to hedge; Soybean meal suggests shorting on rallies; Oils and fats are expected to be weakly volatile [1] Core Views The report provides trading guidance for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the current situation, future trends, and trading strategies for each product [1] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: In the long - term, they are bullish. Due to reduced geopolitical disturbances, they may trade in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][5] - **Treasury Bonds**: They are expected to trade in a range. There is a relay from trading to allocation, with yields on the long - end falling more [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to trade in a range. Due to weak fundamentals and high inventory pressure, short - term trading is recommended [6][7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to trade in a range. With neutral valuation and short - term supply - demand balance, range trading is the main strategy [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be weakly volatile. With inventory transfer to the middle - stream and weakening demand, it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to fall after rising. With short - term support weakening and inventory increasing, it is recommended to close long positions on rallies [10][11] - **Aluminum**: It is expected to trade at a high level. With supply increasing and demand entering the off - season, it is recommended to strengthen observation [13] - **Nickel**: It is expected to trade in a range. With a mixed fundamental situation and full market pricing, it is recommended to wait and see [14][15] - **Tin**: It is expected to trade in a range. With tight supply and stable demand, range trading or taking profits on previous long positions is recommended [16] - **Silver**: It is expected to be relatively strong. Due to geopolitical tensions and economic data trends, it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious when opening new positions [17] - **Gold**: It is expected to trade in a range. Affected by geopolitical and economic factors, range trading is recommended and chasing highs should be cautious [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply and demand factors in balance, price volatility is expected to continue [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. With weak domestic demand and high inventory, but low valuation and potential policy support, a long - term low - buying strategy is recommended [18][20] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to trade at a low level. With high supply and weak demand, it is recommended to wait and see [20] - **Styrene**: It is expected to trade in a range. With high valuation and uncertain cost - supply - demand improvement, range trading is recommended [21][22] - **Rubber**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply reduction and inventory increase, and no obvious driving force, range trading is recommended [22][23] - **Urea**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply increasing and demand stable, it is recommended to trade within a range of 1730 - 1830 [24][25] - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade in a range. With supply recovery and weak traditional demand, and some regions being strong, range trading is recommended [25] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With cost support and inventory transfer, the upside is limited, and shorting on rallies is recommended [26][27] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. With supply contraction and cost support, the downside may be limited [28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: They are expected to adjust in a range. With production reduction and consumption increase, short - term caution and long - term optimism are recommended [29] - **Apples**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With slow sales in the main production areas and price fluctuations [29] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to be weakly volatile. With the end of raw material acquisition in Xinjiang and stable market transactions [31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: They are expected to form a bottom in a range. With high supply pressure in the short - term and slow capacity reduction in the long - term, shorting on rallies and hedging on profits are recommended [31][33] - **Eggs**: They are expected to rebound from a low level. With low - level spot price increase and uncertain long - term supply, shorting should be cautious and hedging on rallies can be considered [33][34] - **Corn**: It is expected to correct from a high level. With short - term supply - demand balance and long - term supply being relatively loose, caution when chasing highs and hedging on rallies are recommended [35][36] - **Soybean Meal**: It is expected to trade at a low level. With short - term support and long - term pressure, shorting on rallies is recommended [37][38] - **Oils and Fats**: The rebound is limited. With different supply - demand situations for different varieties, short - term caution when chasing highs and spread trading are recommended [38][43]

Group 1 - The core event was the annual client appreciation meeting held by Caida Securities Shijiazhuang branch, attended by over 200 clients and industry experts to discuss investment strategies [1][3] - The meeting featured presentations from index researchers who provided insights into macroeconomic conditions and policy highlights, aiming to help clients grasp the "core investment password" [2][3] - A well-known private fund manager shared practical investment strategies, offering valuable insights that helped clients refine their investment approaches based on a clear understanding of macro trends [2][3] Group 2 - The management of Caida Securities Shijiazhuang branch emphasized a future focus on client needs, aiming to enhance service precision and professionalism to support clients in wealth growth [4]

Core Insights - The "2026 China Food and Beverage Industry Bulk Raw Material Futures Market Strategy Conference" was successfully held in Beijing, organized by COFCO Futures and the Golden Bridge Club, with over 240 participants from various sectors [1][2] - The conference focused on macroeconomic trends, industry developments, and supply chain dynamics, aiming to provide a high-quality platform for communication and collaboration within the industry [1] - Experts highlighted the need for companies to navigate uncertainties and seek opportunities amid global economic recovery and risks, emphasizing the importance of AI-driven productivity improvements for future economic growth [1] Industry Developments - Industry experts discussed market supply, price ranges, and procurement and hedging strategies for commodities such as sugar, corn starch, electrolytic aluminum, and coffee, providing insights for 2026 [2] - The successful execution of the conference is seen as a significant step in helping food and beverage companies clarify the core logic and technical trends of the bulk raw material market for 2026 [2] - COFCO Futures aims to deepen its derivative service capabilities to empower the development of the real economy and support the stability of food and beverage enterprises [2]

Economic Overview - The GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025 is 5.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year, with an expected annual growth rate of around 5% and a total economic output projected to reach 140 trillion yuan [3][5][6] - The industrial structure is continuously optimizing, with emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, biomedicine, and robotics flourishing and ranking among the world's leaders [6][8] Challenges in the Economy - There are significant issues such as insufficient effective demand, low price levels, difficulties faced by some enterprises, pressure on employment and resident income growth, and low growth rates in fiscal revenue and expenditure [7][8] - Investment has shown negative growth for several months, and overall consumption remains weak [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fluctuated around 0 for two consecutive years, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has experienced negative growth for three years [7] Policy Recommendations - The government is urged to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies, including maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels, and increasing central budget investments to support infrastructure projects [9][10] - A focus on income distribution reform is necessary, including increasing basic pensions for urban and rural residents, optimizing personal income tax policies, and improving the salaries of public sector employees to boost overall income [10][11] Financial Sector Reforms - Enhancing the vitality of the capital market requires reforms, including the establishment of a financial system that aligns with technological innovation [4][11] - Commercial banks are encouraged to better serve innovation by exploring pilot programs for investment and loan linkage, which involves deep adjustments to the financial system [4][11]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic analysis conference hosted by Peking University HSBC Business School focuses on the economic outlook for China and trade dynamics in Southeast Asia and the Middle East for the fourth quarter of 2025, aiming to provide forward-looking economic analysis and decision-making references [1]. Economic Outlook for China - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to be 5.1%, with a slowdown in economic growth in the fourth quarter attributed to fluctuating fiscal spending [4]. - Exports in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations due to China's transition of electromechanical products to higher-end segments of the global value chain, indicating sustainable high growth in future exports [4]. - The outlook for 2026 includes the potential end of the inverted interest rate spread between China and the U.S., which could benefit domestic asset prices, and opportunities for revitalizing real estate and local state-owned assets [4]. Economic Situation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area - The economic situation in the Greater Bay Area is characterized by stable industrial production, moderate recovery in exports, and pressure on domestic investment, with an expected growth rate of about 4.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5]. - External trade continues to grow, particularly in non-U.S. regions, although the decline in export price indices is squeezing profit margins for export companies [5]. - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline further, presenting a significant challenge, while strategies to expand domestic demand are anticipated to support consumption growth [5]. Southeast Asia Economic Dynamics - Private consumption in Southeast Asia remains robust, with moderate inflation and strong exports from countries like Vietnam and Singapore [5]. - The active trade between China and ASEAN, along with the signing of the upgraded version of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area agreement, is expected to inject strong momentum into regional economic integration [5]. - The economic growth rate in ASEAN is projected to continue leading globally, benefiting from the restructuring of global supply chains and accelerating renewable energy transitions over the next five years [5]. Economic Dynamics with the Middle East - The Middle East economy is experiencing moderate recovery, with an expected GDP growth rate of 2.7% for the year, driven primarily by non-oil sectors [6]. - Bilateral trade shows divergence, with significant increases in exports from China to Qatar and imports from Egypt [6]. - Future strategies for Chinese enterprises should focus on a diversified competitive landscape that includes stable oil and gas sectors, non-oil growth, and high-tech projects [6]. General Economic Trends - China's economy has crossed the L-shaped inflection point, entering a stable growth phase that aligns with the 2035 development goals [8]. - The shift towards new and improved economic development is changing the dynamics of equity and debt markets, suggesting a growing emphasis on equity market opportunities [8]. - Structural issues in the economy include the need for improved domestic consumption and the urgency of upgrading traditional industries, with new growth drivers emerging in high-tech and digital sectors [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company's stock price is influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions, industry development trends, and investor preferences and expectations [2] Group 1 - The company aims to optimize its operational management and improve its governance structure [2] - The company is focused on providing stable and long-term value returns to its shareholders [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment is neutral to bearish, with absolute prices strengthening this week, while the refined oil crack spread has significantly declined. Spot discounts and monthly spreads have strengthened simultaneously, continuing to trade on the European refinery restart, with some geopolitical premiums affecting absolute prices [1]. Geopolitical and Sanctions - Concerns over supply disruptions from Venezuela continue to be a major driver, with current exports around 800,000 barrels per day, primarily to China. The sentiment impact is more pronounced on domestic heavy crude components, and the Mars-WTI price spread has strengthened, reflecting concerns over heavy oil shortages. Some export destinations have shifted to "other," indicating a tendency for cargoes to be rerouted due to sanctions [1][9]. Macro Environment - Trading activity in Europe and the U.S. is expected to be subdued during the Christmas period, with potential for some positioning activity post-holiday. There is a slight recovery in risk appetite observed [3]. Downstream Demand - High profit margins have led to a significant return of European refineries, boosting the performance of the spot market. The U.S. refinery utilization rate has increased to 94.8% as of December 12, while China's main and local refinery utilization rates are at 79.1% and 56.22%, respectively [6][24]. Supply and Demand Balance - The OPEC production is projected to remain stable, with no unexpected increases. The overall production and export levels have not shown significant impact from geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela [2][10]. Refinery Trends - European refineries are experiencing a structural clearing trend, with a notable reduction in capacity due to various factors, including profitability issues and rising operational costs. Since 2000, European refining capacity has decreased by over 15%, with 34 refineries closed [14][15][20]. Price Dynamics - The crack spreads for gasoline have decreased, while the diesel market shows signs of easing tensions. The WTI and Brent futures have seen a reduction in net long positions, indicating a shift in market sentiment [31][44][47].