来自北大汇丰智库的邹欣、程玉伟、蔡荣、朱兆一等专家对当前经济形势进行分析。对于当前宏观经济 形势，邹欣认为，今年财政支出力度前高后低是导致四季度经济增速放缓的主因之一，预计2025年仍能 实现5.1%的GDP增速。四季度出口超预期，得益于中国机电产品正向全球产业链价值链中高端转型， 未来技术领先、产品力强的机电产品的出口高增长具有可持续性。对2026年经济的展望：一是预计中美 利差倒挂有望结束，利好国内资产价格；二是可以重点挖掘房企和地方国资存量资产盘活的投资机会； 三是区域性的贸易摩擦仍将频繁发生，要以互利共赢的思路开拓海外市场。 深圳商报•读创客户端记者 刘娥 近日，由北京大学汇丰商学院主办、北大汇丰智库承办的北大汇丰智库宏观经济分析会（2025年第四季 度）举行。本次分析会聚焦2025年第四季度中国经济形势、东南亚和中东经贸动态，旨在通过深度研究 与多元观点交流，提供具有前瞻性的经济分析与决策参考。 预计2025年仍能实现5.1%的GDP增速 左至右：邹欣、程玉伟、蔡荣、朱兆一 对于2025年第四季度粤港澳大湾区经济形势，程玉伟分析指出，湾区经济呈现"工业生产企稳、出口温 和回升、内需投资承压"的态势， ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月29日，恒申新材在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司股价受宏观经济形势、行 业发展趋势、投资者偏好和预期等多重因素影响。公司将通过优化经营管理工作，完善治理结构，为股 东带来稳定、长期的价值回报。 ...

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 核心观点：中性偏空本周绝对价格走强，成品油裂解价差回落明显，现货贴水和月差同步走强，继续交 易欧洲炼厂复工，绝对价格方面有部分地缘溢价加持。 地缘端继续炒作，主要仍在于委内瑞拉的断供担忧，就量级而言，委内瑞拉目前出口为80万桶日左右， 主要目的地还是发往中国，因此受情绪影响冲击，国内重质组分情绪表现更为明显，美国方面Mars- WTI价差走强，也在一定程度上体现出重质油紧缺的担忧，出口方面部分目的地转为other，也说明出当 下因制裁而导致的货物转移倾向，委内浮仓方面仍保持中性，后续出口有进一步转移至浮仓的倾向。 宏观方面，当下正处于圣诞节期间，欧美交易较为冷淡，圣诞节后有部分建仓行情值得关注，阶段性风 险偏好有所回暖。基本面方面，欧洲炼厂近期回归明显，高采买需求也传递至月差端，我们梳理了欧洲 炼厂的整体结构性出清的情况，规模较小、装置复杂程度低、居于内陆且净出口石油产品的炼厂出清的 概率最大，定性而言后续随着俄乌冲突的缓和，欧洲炼厂面对俄罗斯炼厂的影响更大，成品油相对于原 油端的价格弹性也将进一步放大。 欧佩克产量：中性 OPEC叫停2026年增产，委 ...

人民财讯12月15日电，2025年12月9日，财政部部长蓝佛安会见了来京出席"1+10"对话会的世界银行行 长彭安杰，就宏观经济形势、中国与世界银行合作等双方共同关心的议题交换了意见。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Citi Private Bank's Global Investment Committee has increased its allocation to U.S. large-cap stocks and gold while reducing exposure to Asian emerging market stocks outside of China and high-yield bonds in developed markets [1][2][3] - The adjustments are expected to align with the improving macroeconomic outlook while maintaining a diversified investment portfolio [1] - Citi Private Bank emphasizes a preference for high-quality companies with strong fundamentals and growth prospects, focusing on large-cap stocks due to their robust balance sheets and diversified supply chains [2] Group 2 - In fixed income, Citi has reduced its holdings in developed market high-yield bonds, preferring to shift risk exposure to the stock market instead [3] - The bank anticipates that ongoing monetary easing, deficit spending, and tariff effects will continue to push inflation higher, despite the Federal Reserve's dovish stance [3] - Citi expects global economic expansion to continue, supported by loose monetary policy and stable economic activity, with nominal growth projected for 2026 [3][4] Group 3 - The U.S. tax reform and government spending commitments are expected to boost consumer and business spending and investment [4] - Citi forecasts that financial deregulation and a loose liquidity environment will promote healthy growth in leverage ratios by 2026 [4]

12月11日，"花旗私人银行"官方微信平台最新发布的首席投资官周报透露，本周，花旗财富全球投资委 员会召开会议，增持了美国大盘股和黄金，减持了中国以外的亚洲新兴市场股票以及发达市场高收益债 券。 减持发达市场高收益债券 固定收益方面，美联储今年已降息75个基点以支持劳动力市场，但通胀率仍高于目标水平。花旗方面预 计，宽松的货币政策、赤字支出以及不断进行的关税传导效应，将进一步推高通胀。 花旗团队指出，尽管即将上任的美联储主席预计将持鸽派立场，美国及全球长期债券收益率却持续攀 升。这一市场动态印证了其维持略短于基准久期的偏好。 在信贷配置方面，花旗专注于优化债券组合的整体质量，减持了发达市场高收益债券。该团队倾向于将 风险敞口转移至股票市场，而非利差已接近历史低位的低质量债券。同时，利用这部分仓位进一步增持 了黄金。鉴于当前收益率面临上行压力，花旗私人银行认为，黄金作为投资组合的风险对冲工具和长期 债券的有效替代品，表现持续强劲。 花旗预计，在政策宽松和全球经济活动温和改善的推动下，全球经济将持续扩张。在美国，最新政府数 据显示，尽管招聘增速有所放缓，但裁员人数仍维持在低位。全球范围内，尽管通胀水平仍高于目标， ...

来源：滚动播报 该资产管理公司在一份报告中称，在数据走软和财政紧张的背景下，美国国债面临更大的不确定性，这 促使东方汇理资产管理缩减美国久期。该公司称："东方汇理资产管理已缩减美国久期敞口，原因是宏 观经济形势好坏参半——消费减弱、劳动力市场走软。"该公司称，东方汇理资产管理还认为存在风 险，即市场可能会考验美联储的独立性，从而可能导致政策失误。 ...

新华财经纽约12月9日电（记者刘亚南）由于投资者在美联储议息会议前保持谨慎，纽约股市三大股指9 日开盘时涨跌不一，盘中维持分化走势，整体窄幅波动，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌不一。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌179.03点，收于47560.29点，跌幅为0.38%；标 准普尔500种股票指数下跌6.00点，收于6840.51点，跌幅为0.09%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨30.582点，收 于23576.486点，涨幅为0.13%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块六涨五跌。能源板块和必需消费品板块分别以0.69%和0.38%涨幅领 涨，医疗板块和工业板块分别以0.98%和0.73%跌幅领跌。 美国劳工部当天上午发布的职位空缺及劳动力流动调查报告（JOLTS）显示，美国2025年10月职位空缺 数量为767万个，高于市场预期的720万个和9月份的765.8万个。 美国总统特朗普8日在接受美国《政治报》专访时表示，是否支持降息将是其对下一任美联储主席的试 金石。 特朗普在今年早些时候多次要求美联储把基准利率降至2%以下，而经过美联储下半年两次降息后，联 邦基金利率目标区间目前为3.75%至4%。 ...

Donaldson Company, Inc. (NYSE:DCI) reported upbeat first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Thursday.Sales rose 3.9% year over year (Y/Y) to $935.4 million, beating the consensus of $922.9 million, led by favorable currency translation and volume growth. GAAP net earnings increased to $113.9 million (or 97 cents per share) from $99.0 million (or 81 cents per share) in the prior year. The company reported adjusted EPS of 94 cents, beating the consensus of 92 cents.Donaldson raised its fiscal 2026 guidance for ad ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In December 2025, the fundamentals of polyolefins remain weak, and the boost from fundamentals to polyolefins may still be limited. Future focus should be on the macro - level. If macro - level policies are positive, polyolefins have the opportunity to rebound [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - level Domestic - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 was 8.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of the previous month. New RMB loans in October were 220 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 280 billion. In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The ex - factory price of industrial producers decreased 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; it changed from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month [8]. - From January to October 2025, national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%, and the sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 788.53 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43 [10][12]. International - Affected by the U.S. government shutdown, the U.S. CPI for October 2025 was not released on time. The CPI in September rose 0.1% from the previous month to 3%. The eurozone's CPI in October 2025 decreased 0.1% from the previous month to 2.1%. Both U.S. and European inflation have dropped to relatively low levels, which is conducive to further interest rate cuts to boost the economy [13]. - After the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, it may further cut interest rates in December due to concerns about weak employment. The eurozone's main refinancing rate has dropped to 2.15% [15]. - High tariffs and high interest rates still have a certain negative impact on the U.S. economy, but the U.S. economy remains resilient. In October, the U.S. manufacturing PMI decreased 0.4 percentage points from the previous month to 48.7%, while the service industry PMI rose 2.4 percentage points to 52.4% [16]. Fundamentals PE - In November 2025, the production and capacity utilization rate of polyethylene increased. The capacity utilization rate was 83.31%, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous period, and the output was 2.8866 million tons, up 0.1 percentage points. The increase in output was mainly due to a 13.35% decrease in maintenance volume and the commissioning of a new device at Guangxi Petrochemical [19]. - In November 2025, the overall downstream operating rate of polyethylene was 44.59%, a decrease of 0.33% from the previous month. The fundamentals of PE packaging film declined month - on - month, with the operating rate dropping 1.56% month - on - month. The overall operating rate of agricultural film increased 7.9% month - on - month [20]. - In November 2025, the social inventory of polyethylene decreased. At the end of the month, the social sample warehouse inventory was 471,100 tons, a decrease of 56,300 tons from the previous month. Low prices drove sales and increased the frequency of terminal purchases [24]. PP - In November 2025, the total production of polypropylene in China was 3.4694 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%. Although a new 400,000 - ton/year device at Guangxi Petrochemical Phase II was put into operation, the total production decreased slightly due to one less day in the month [27]. - In November 2025, the estimated consumption of polypropylene in China was 3.4894 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.48%. The average downstream operating rate was 53.30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%, mainly driven by e - commerce promotions and new energy vehicle promotion policies [30]. - At the end of November 2025, the inventory of polypropylene production enterprises was 546,300 tons, a decrease of 8.2% from the end of the previous month. The inventory of polypropylene traders was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 6.16% from the end of the previous month [33]. Market Outlook PE - In December 2025, the supply pressure of polyethylene is expected to remain. The demand for agricultural film will enter the off - season, the operating rate of the packaging industry may continue to decline, and the infrastructure demand in the pipe industry will decrease. The cost support will further weaken, and the market price may hover at a low level [6][35]. PP - In December 2025, although imports will continue to decrease, the supply pressure of polypropylene will increase as the maintenance plan of domestic polypropylene devices is basically over. The increase in festival - related orders is limited, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to intensify [6][37].