证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 9 月 16 日 如何衡量居民增量资金入市热度和潜力？ ——A 股投资启示录（三十） 当前银行存款和理财产品收益率处于历史低位，而股票市场赚钱效应持续积累， A 股内在回报率持续提升，规模庞大的增量资金极有可能涌入股票和基金市场推 动 A 股迎来一轮大级别上行行情。基于此，我们构建了增量资金入市的潜力和热 度指标，目前来看潜力指标尚处于历史均值以下，热度指标处于均值+1 倍标准差 以下，距离历史高位仍有较大增长空间。当前融资余额持续增长、私募基金规模 持续攀升、个人投资者开户数活跃，成为当前增量资金入市的主要渠道。展望后 市，偏股公募基金有望继续接力，外资也有望继续净流入成为重要的增量资金来 源。参考前两轮牛市，估算潜在增量资金仍有 5.4 万亿元。 专题报告 相关报告 《重估 A 股的基本原理：权重 指数篇——A 股投资启示录 （二十九）》 《主力何在？增量资金属性 与市场主线风格——A 股投 资启示录（二十八）》 《静态投资框架十问——A 股投资启示录（二十七）》 《基于 FCF-ROE 和 DCF 定 价模型的策略框架——A 股 投资启示录（二十六）》 《定 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indices opened slightly higher on September 16, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly rising before experiencing a decline of approximately 0.57% during the session [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3856.45 points, down 0.10%, with a trading volume of about 633.3 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12971.80 points, down 0.26%, with a trading volume of approximately 848.5 billion yuan [2] Sector Performance - Sectors such as precious metals, coal, automotive parts, and tourism showed strong gains at the opening [1] - IT equipment, semiconductors, cloud gaming, and liquid cooling servers performed well initially, while sectors like non-ferrous metals, pork, and film exhibition faced weakness [1] - By midday, IT equipment, exoskeleton robots, and automotive thermal management led the gains, while non-ferrous metals, agriculture, and sodium batteries saw significant declines [1] Institutional Insights - Guojin Securities noted that the rise in A-shares in August was driven by three factors: global liquidity, resolution of long-term systemic risks, and sentiment catalysts from important festivals and meetings [3] - CITIC Securities highlighted the new development model for the energy storage industry following the release of Document No. 136 by the National Development and Reform Commission, indicating improved profitability for energy storage projects [3] - CICC pointed out the growth potential for indoor ski resorts as a new real estate category, addressing the supply-demand imbalance in China's skiing market [4] Policy Developments - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported progress in building livable and workable rural areas, with significant improvements in infrastructure and public services in rural areas [5] - The Ministry of Transport released new technical standards for hydrogen transportation, which will enhance safety and operational guidelines for hydrogen transport [6] - Policies aimed at expanding the "15-minute convenient living circle" in cities are set to be introduced, focusing on services for the elderly and children [8]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown strong momentum in August, driven by three main factors: global liquidity, resolution of systemic risks, and emotional catalysts at key moments [1][2] - The current market environment suggests a transition to a "slow train" led by fundamental revaluation, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][10] - Domestic funds have significant potential for reallocation, with household deposits amounting to 160-170 trillion yuan, compared to A-share market capitalization of just over 100 trillion yuan, indicating a high deposit-to-market ratio [3][4] Group 2 - External funds are influenced by U.S. dollar liquidity, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to increased global liquidity and support for A-shares [4][10] - Regulatory signals indicate a desire for long-term, value-oriented investment strategies, which may provide a supportive environment for the market [9][10] - The real estate market is undergoing adjustments, with signs of stabilization in lower-tier cities and potential recovery in consumer sentiment, which could positively impact overall economic conditions [19][26] Group 3 - Investment strategies should focus on high-dividend assets, physical assets, and technology sectors to navigate the current economic landscape characterized by stagflation [34][35] - The technology sector is seen as a key driver for overcoming economic stagnation, with a focus on companies that can lead future innovations [35][36] - Opportunities arising from China's economic transformation include overseas expansion, industrial upgrades, and consumption in lower-tier markets, which could yield significant returns for investors [36][37]

三大股指集体高开，截至发稿，沪指涨0.27%，深成指涨0.16%，创业板涨0.19%。 盘面上，早盘抖音概念活跃，省广集团封涨停，线上线下涨近9%；房地产板块盘初拉升，香江控股、荣盛发展涨停；黄金股开盘领涨，上海建工3连板。跌 幅方面，猪肉、影视院线、电池等板块走势不佳。 展望后市，国金证券研报表示，9月初A股一度小幅调整，可能是资金对时点的短期表达，然而A股的第三轮重估——一辆由基本面主导的"慢车"，已经渐行 渐近。 热门板块 1、抖音概念活跃 早盘抖音概念活跃，省广集团封涨停，线上线下涨近9%，蓝色光标、天龙集团、易点天下、引力传媒、遥望科技等跟涨。 点评：消息面上，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢15日傍晚在此间表示，中美双方就以合作方式妥善解决TikTok问题、减少投资障碍、促进有 关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。 点评：根据中指研究院不完全统计，今年以来，全国约190地出台房地产优化政策近440条。58安居客研究院院长张波在接受记者采访时表示，传统销售旺季 叠加支持政策密集发布，房地产市场潜在需求有望进一步释放，"金九银十"值得期待。 | | 房地产(01801180) | | | --- ...

9月16日，国金证券研报表示，A股的第三轮重估——一辆由基本面主导的"慢车"，已经渐行渐近。在 具体的投资方向上，建议关注三类资产：高股息资产、实物资产和黄金，以应对全球滞胀带来的不确定 性；科技板块；中国转型中独有的结构性机会，特别是在出海、产业升级和下沉消费领域具备独特竞争 力的优质企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guojin Securities indicates that the third round of revaluation for A-shares is approaching, driven by fundamental factors rather than short-term market reactions [1] Investment Recommendations - Existing investors should not rush to exit the market as the current rise is supported by global liquidity, domestic valuation recovery, and short-term catalysts [1] - New investors are advised to remain patient and wait for better entry points, as future market performance will rely more on fundamental improvements [1] - There is no need to panic in the face of market declines, as systemic risks are being resolved and the market bottom is rising with long-term capital entering [1] Investment Directions - Focus on three types of assets: high dividend stocks, physical assets, and gold to hedge against global stagflation uncertainties [1] - Pay attention to the technology sector to capture hopes of breaking stagnation [1] - Look for structural opportunities in China's transformation, particularly in high-quality companies in overseas expansion, industrial upgrading, and lower-tier consumption [1]

Market Overview - The market showed mixed performance yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing slight fluctuations while the ChiNext Index peaked and then retreated. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.28 trillion, a decrease of 245.8 billion from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.63%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.52% [1]. Investment Recommendations - Guotai Junan Securities indicated that the third round of revaluation for A-shares is approaching, driven by fundamental factors. They suggested three key strategies: existing investors should remain patient and not rush to exit, new investors should wait for better entry points, and there is no need to panic about potential market declines as systemic risks are gradually being resolved [1][2]. - The report highlighted three asset categories to focus on: 1) high-dividend assets, physical assets, and gold to mitigate uncertainties from global stagflation; 2) technology sector to capture hopes of breaking through economic stagnation; 3) unique structural opportunities in China's transformation, particularly for quality companies with competitive advantages in overseas expansion, industrial upgrading, and lower-tier consumption [2]. Policy Developments - Huatai Securities reported that recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration aim to deepen electricity market reforms. These include a special action plan for large-scale energy storage construction (2025-2027) and mechanisms to promote the consumption of renewable energy. These policies are expected to benefit the sustainability of energy storage and wind power orders [3]. Industry Insights - CICC expressed optimism about the development potential of leading indoor ski resort operators and related industry chain enterprises. The report noted a mismatch between the scarcity of quality ice and snow resources and the growing skiing population, indicating that indoor ski resorts can effectively address this issue and promote the popularity of skiing [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market is approaching its third round of revaluation, driven by fundamental factors, with recommendations for investors to focus on high dividend assets, technology sectors, and unique structural opportunities in China's transformation [2] - Recent policies from the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration aim to deepen electricity market reforms, benefiting the storage and wind power sectors [3] - The indoor skiing market is emerging as a new real estate category, addressing the supply-demand gap in China's skiing resources, with potential investment opportunities in leading indoor ski operators and related industries [4] Group 2 - The A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.23% and the ChiNext Index up 1.52%, amid a trading volume of 2.28 trillion yuan, a decrease of 245.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The gaming, pork, and automotive sectors showed strong gains, while precious metals and cultural media sectors faced declines [1] - The market's current upward trend is supported by global liquidity, long-term valuation recovery, and short-term catalysts, with a recommendation for investors to remain patient and wait for better entry points [2]

八月A股市场展现出的强劲势头令人印象深刻，九月伊始A股资金面一度降温，我们在前期报告 《当A 股长期估值修复遇到新一轮全球水牛》 中提出，前期A股的上涨主要源于三重因素叠加——全球流动 性水牛，长期系统性风险化解，以及重要时点的情绪催化剂。 水牛之后，一辆由基本面重估主导的A股"慢车"，正在渐行渐近。 如何搭上"慢车"？我们为投资者提 供 三个投资建议和配置方向 。 一、三个投资建议 （一）已在车上，不必急于下车 身处市场之中不必急于离场，因为无论是国内还是国外的资金，当前看都还有持续流入的潜力。 已在车上不急于下车，未上车可耐心等待，即使下跌不必担忧。配置方向上，关注滞胀中 的确定性、突破滞胀的科技、中国转型中的阿尔法。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人陈瀚学 国内资金，目前受关注的是居民存款是否会大规模"搬家"。 从存量看，A股总市值刚突破100万亿， 而居民存款高达160-170万亿，存款与市值的比率高达1.7，处于历史偏高水平。居民手中仍有大量资 金有待配置。从流量上看，尽管7月份金融数据显示居民存款有所减少，但主要是6月季末银行存款冲 量之后，存款回流理财产品，计入非银金融机构存款所致。目前为止，居民存款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that A-shares experienced a slight adjustment in early September, but a third round of revaluation driven by fundamentals is approaching [1] Investment Recommendations - For current investors, there is no need to rush to exit the market as the recent rise is supported by global liquidity, long-term valuation recovery, and short-term catalysts [1] - For potential investors, it is advised to remain patient and wait for a better entry point, as future market performance will depend on sustained economic improvement [1] - In the face of potential market declines, there is no need for panic, as systemic risks are gradually being resolved and the market bottom is rising with long-term capital entering [1] Suggested Investment Directions - Focus on three types of assets: 1) High dividend assets, physical assets, and gold to address uncertainties from global stagflation [1] 2) Technology sector to capture hopes of breaking through economic stagnation [1] 3) Unique structural opportunities in China's transformation, particularly high-quality companies with competitive advantages in overseas expansion, industrial upgrading, and lower-tier consumption [1]