摘要 2025 年消费市场呈现结构性机会，内需成为经济转型关键。消费者行 为从温饱型向娱乐型转变，为市场带来新的投资机会，社零总额达 50 万亿，主要集中在商品和餐饮消费，展现出强劲的韧性。 服务性消费潜力巨大，政策支持增加假期，提升居民消费能力。老龄化 加速，60 后人群对医疗康养需求旺盛，银发经济成为增长引擎，资本市 场应重点关注服务性消费领域。 出行产业链中，免税、酒店、景区和 OTA 值得关注。OTA 平台因供应 链修复业绩超预期，免税行业受益于高端消费回暖，酒店行业因供给侧 改善具备投资潜力，2026 年旅游出行行业景气度较高。 四波人口红利（50 后、60 后、90 后、10 后）带来新机遇，分别对应 医疗康养、银发经济、单身经济和亲子教育。60 后对健康养老产品需求 旺盛，90 后推动体育及个护产品需求，10 后带动教育及亲子产业发展。 技术应用推动新兴产品供给与需求良性循环，如"首发经济"通过创新 产品吸引消费者。海南免税政策持续发力，岛民免税消费潜力释放，国 货引入免税店带来增长，黄金和手机等品类结构调整助力销售增长。 Q&A 2026 年投资策略：重视服务消费布局元年 20260105 2 ...

编辑 ｜ 张一弛 来源｜ 金错刀（ID： ijincuodao ） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 科技商业观察家。爆品战略提出者。 以下文章来源于金错刀 ，作者江源 金错刀 . 不仅是一场技术革命， 更是一场认知革命。 文 ｜ 江源 2026年第一场翻身仗，竟然是昔日"国民下饭菜"干出来的。 被嘲"躺平"的老干妈突然逆袭，回归营收巅峰54亿，找到了独属自己的发展style。 连在国内憋屈多年的乌江榨菜，也在海外找到一席之地——东亚和东南亚市场就狂销超800万，狠狠拿捏了老外。 相比之下，同样是曾经的国民下饭菜——腐乳却没有得到泼天的好运，反而存在感还变得越来越低。 "一块腐乳半碗饭"，这是老一辈人最熟悉的吃法。但在2026年的今天，这句老话正在失去市场。 "年轻人宁愿花20元买一杯奶茶，也不愿花10元买一瓶腐乳。"一位超市导购曾袒露。 更为骨感的是赤裸裸的财报数字。腐乳行业的"晴雨表"已经亮起红灯：北交所"腐乳第一股"朱老六2025上半年营收同比下降1.45%，主力产品腐乳营收下 降4.65%；另一家挂牌企业咸亨股份腐乳营收也下降2.78%。 一场围绕"腐乳"的冰火两重天，彻底揭开了这个百年传统行业的遮羞布。 北方 ...

来源：李迅雷金融与投资 引 言 东风浩荡满眼春。2025年，A股市场走出三年调整后的复苏行情，沪指从年内低位起步，一度在下半年冲破4000点大关，全年涨幅约18.41%，而科创板与 创业板指涨幅更是分别录得46.30%、49.57%。这轮复苏行情的独特之处在于：推动估值重估的不是盈利改善或流动性泛滥，而是国家制度层面风险偏好 的深刻变化。 2026年是美国中期选举的关键年份。根据2025年末的多项民调，特朗普政府的支持率已跌至36%-41%的"危险区间"，多数民众对生活成本和物价的容忍度 已达极限。基于中期选举压力，特朗普的核心动机或将从"治国"转向"政治自救"。 25年伊始，我们关于资本市场的"铁与火之歌"的十大猜想中，亦大部分得到了验证。如，黄金的大级别趋势将进一步强化；"铁"（红利/建筑/银行）： 银 行板块PB修复显著，化债驱动建筑蓝筹估值重构；"火"（硬科技/AI）： 科技板块成为全年核心引擎，尤其是AI硬件和机器人产业链。 那么，展望2026年，骏马扬蹄，东风正劲，资本市场仍或将有哪些"预期差"？基于政策逻辑演绎及市场博弈分析，放开脑洞，本文尝试进行猜想。 猜想一——中美关系： 特朗普"政治自救" ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to continue its recovery in 2026, driven by changes in risk appetite at the institutional level rather than just profit improvements or liquidity increases [1] Group 1: Market Recovery and Trends - The A-share market experienced a recovery in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising approximately 18.41%, while the STAR Market and ChiNext recorded gains of 46.30% and 49.57% respectively [1] - The recovery is characterized by a significant change in risk appetite at the institutional level, which is seen as a fundamental driver of valuation reassessment [1] Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - The political dynamics in the U.S., particularly under Trump's administration, may exacerbate the "East rises, West declines" narrative, with potential for two key windows of easing in U.S.-China relations [2][3] - The first window could occur with high-level visits early in the year, while the second may arise as the midterm elections approach, necessitating compromises in trade [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair in May 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for market liquidity and policy direction [7][8] - The first phase of the nomination process may lead to speculation about aggressive rate cuts, impacting risk assets positively [11] Group 4: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy in 2026 may see a marginal increase in deficit rates, but the focus will shift towards targeted investments rather than broad-based infrastructure spending [12][13] - Monetary policy is expected to face dual constraints, balancing liquidity needs with maintaining a strong RMB to uphold national credit asset pricing [13] Group 5: Capital Market Management - A-shares are likely to benefit from capital market policies aimed at managing expectations, with a focus on long-term funds supporting the market [14][15] - The tightening of IPO approvals and regulations on share reductions will create a "healthy" slow bull market framework [16] Group 6: Global Technology Trends - The global technology sector, particularly AI, is expected to continue its upward trajectory, but with increased volatility and a shift towards application-based investments [20][21] - The Nasdaq 100 index is projected to maintain an upward trend, but with significant fluctuations influenced by U.S. political dynamics [25] Group 7: Domestic Technology Developments - The investment logic in AI is shifting from foundational computing power to application deployment, with a focus on domestic sectors that can match U.S. advancements [26][27] - Key areas of growth include humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and upstream materials, driven by domestic supply chain advantages [28] Group 8: Gold and Commodities - Gold prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical risks and declining monetary credibility, with a focus on strategic resources like copper and other metals [34][37] - The demand for commodities will be driven by supply constraints and strategic needs, particularly in the context of global supply chain restructuring [37] Group 9: New Consumption Trends - The demographic shift towards lower birth rates and an increase in single-person households is reshaping consumption patterns, emphasizing emotional value over traditional family-oriented spending [38][39] - New consumption categories, such as pet-related products and AI companions, are anticipated to see significant growth as consumer preferences evolve [39]

（转载请注明出处：微信公众号 lixunlei0722 ） 引 言 东风浩荡满眼春。2025年，A股市场走出三年调整后的复苏行情,沪指从年内低位起步,一度在下半年冲破 4000点大关,全年涨幅约18.41%，而科创板与创业板指涨幅更是分别录得46.30%、49.57%。这轮复苏行 情的独特之处在于：推动估值重估的不是盈利改善或流动性泛滥,而是国家制度层面风险偏好的深刻变化。 25年伊始，我们关于资本市场的"铁与火之歌"的十大猜想中，亦大部分得到了验证。如，黄金的大级别趋 势将进一步强化；"铁"（红利/建筑/银行）： 银行板块PB修复显著，化债驱动建筑蓝筹估值重 构；"火"（硬科技/AI）： 科技板块成为全年核心引擎，尤其是AI硬件和机器人产业链。 那么，展望2026年，骏马扬蹄，东风正劲，资本市场仍或将有哪些"预期差"？基于政策逻辑演绎及市场博 弈分析，放开脑洞，本文尝试进行猜想。 猜想一——中美关系： 特朗普"政治自救"或加大"东升西降"趋势，注意两个缓和窗口 2026年是美国中期选举的关键年份。根据2025年末的多项民调，特朗普政府的支持率已跌至36%-41% 的"危险区间"，多数民众对生活成本和物价的容 ...

经济学家任泽平发文，提出未来十年中国经济的十大趋势。1. 2035年中国经济规模将超过美国，成为世 界第一大经济体，全球经济、贸易、科技、地缘秩序重新洗牌，未来十年将是大国博弈的关键期。2. 人 工智能的超级应用大爆发，成为经济的新增长点，引领新一轮康波周期，成为新一代年轻人人生逆袭和 财富逆袭的机会。3. 生命科学取得重大突破，在AI的助力下创新药研发势如破竹，人的寿命被大幅提 高到120岁，60岁被称为银发青年。4. 人形机器人在社会上到处都是，替代人类的简单重复劳动，人类 解放出来从事创造、社交、情感活动。5. 自动驾驶势不可挡，燃油车彻底被淘汰，自动驾驶将是城市交 通拥堵、空气污染和安全出行的终极解决方案。6. 新型绿色能源体系诞生，光伏、风电和可控核聚变彻 底替代煤电，能源供应体系转型为"分布式发电+储能"，地球温室效应极大改善。7. 后房地产时代到 来，市场二八分化，20%人口流入地区的房价有望触底甚至创新高，80%人口流出地区的房价漫长阴 跌。8. 人口老龄化、少子化、不婚化到来，银发经济、宠物经济、单身经济、情绪消费崛起，机器人和 AI助手越来越走进人类生活，成为每个人的伙伴、甚至恋人和伴侣。 ...

核心发现 用户变化 中国移动互联网流量 丨季度报告 核心摘要： 本报告利用艾瑞咨询UserTracker多平台网民行为监测数据库等产品数据及桌面研究，综合分析了2025年 移动互联网的用户变化、行业流量变化、APP流量变化。报告指出，2025年第三季度，移动互联网流量小 幅增长，用户行为向低频深用变迁。在用户结构方面，用户性别、年龄结构稳定，中高线未婚群体驱动增 长，用户触媒偏好呈现年龄和城市级别差异。在行业方面，美食外卖巨头大战落幕，短期流量激增后续增长 乏力；旅游出行需求持续释放，使用时长增长亮眼；人工智能流量增长迅猛，语言模型用户规模爆发增长； 游戏服务流量整体下滑，行业存量竞争加剧。APP方面，2025年9月MAU（月活跃设备数）亿级以上的 APP复合增长前三名为：铁路12306、豆包、全民K歌；MAU达5000万级以上的APP复合增长前三名是： 腾讯元宝、汽水音乐、转转。 移动互联网流量小幅增长，用户行为向低频深用变迁 ：2025Q3中国移动互联网月独立设备数增至 14.52亿，环比Q2增长0.83%；用户单日使用次数为59.8次，环比Q2下降2.9%；时长为282.9分钟， 环比Q2增长2.3%， ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the mobile internet industry in China. Core Insights - The mobile internet traffic in China has shown steady growth, with the number of monthly active devices reaching 1.452 billion by the end of Q3 2025. User engagement metrics indicate a shift from "high-frequency shallow use" to "low-frequency deep use," with daily effective usage time per device increasing from 272.4 minutes to 282.9 minutes, while the number of daily usage instances decreased from 65.1 to 59.8 [10][14]. Summary by Sections 01 Overview - The mobile internet traffic in China has experienced slight growth, with a monthly active device count of 1.452 billion as of Q3 2025. User stickiness remains stable, with daily effective usage time per device increasing to 282.9 minutes, while the frequency of usage has decreased [10][14]. 02 Segmentation - The report highlights that the user demographics are stable, with unmarried users making up 32.7% of the mobile internet population, reflecting the influence of the single economy on traffic growth. Users aged 35 and below account for 49.1%, and there is a notable increase in users from second-tier cities and above [17][18]. - Short video content continues to dominate user attention, with significant growth in daily usage time for travel and communication services, indicating a strong demand for immersive and personalized digital experiences [20][21]. - The top sectors in the mobile internet include communication and chat services, e-commerce, and aggregated information, with communication services achieving a penetration rate of 89.0%. The artificial intelligence sector has shown remarkable growth at 59.3% year-on-year [26][28]. - User engagement in high-frequency applications such as communication and short video services has increased, while sectors like social networking and aggregated information have seen declines, indicating a shift in user preferences towards high-quality content and innovative services [31][32]. 03 Value Rankings - The report does not provide a specific value ranking for the mobile internet industry in China.

Group 1 - The proportion of single-person households increased from 8.30% in 2000 to 25.39% in 2020, while two-person households rose from 17.05% to 29.68%, indicating a shift towards childless families becoming the mainstream, with single populations reaching 240 million [1] - The traditional role of marriage is evolving from a necessity for survival to a financial burden, leading to a complete rewrite of ordinary people's financial logic influenced by income, employment, marriage, and family dynamics [1] - The old wealth paradigms have been disrupted, and new capital opportunities are emerging in the market [1] Group 2 - In 2025, Hangzhou experienced a significant decline in the real estate market, with the once-popular Regal International facing vacancies and landlords willing to accept lower rents and flexible payment options [2][4] - The hourly wage for e-commerce live streamers dropped from 160 yuan to 80 yuan, reflecting a shift in the job market as many graduates compete for these positions [2] Group 3 - The e-commerce penetration rate in China has declined from 27.6% in 2023 to 25%, marking the first continuous drop in the history of Chinese e-commerce [5] - The current economic climate indicates a transition from material consumption to emotional consumption, suggesting potential new opportunities for the real economy [5][6] - The decline in consumer interest in traditional e-commerce is attributed to the saturation of material goods in households, leading to a shift in purchasing behavior [8] Group 4 - The pet market in China is projected to reach 300 billion yuan, with the number of pets surpassing that of children under four years old, indicating a shift in consumer priorities [10] - The rise of emotional consumption is evident in various sectors, including outdoor sports and wellness products, which are gaining popularity among younger consumers [10][12] - The changing social structure, characterized by declining birth and marriage rates, is reshaping consumer behavior towards individual and emotional needs rather than traditional family-oriented spending [13][14] Group 5 - The elderly population in China is expected to exceed 300 million by 2024, leading to an increase in solitary living situations and a growing market for products catering to emotional well-being [15] - The shift from traditional family spending to individual consumption reflects a broader societal change where personal satisfaction takes precedence over collective family needs [15][16] - The evolution of consumer preferences indicates a move towards experiences and emotional fulfillment rather than mere material acquisition, highlighting a maturation of the Chinese consumer market [16][19]

Group 1 - The article discusses the decline in sexual activity and related product sales among younger generations, highlighting a significant drop in condom sales from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17% [8][12] - The largest condom manufacturer, "Kang Le," reported a 40% drop in sales over two years, leading them to pivot to manufacturing rubber gloves [15][13] - Durex's sales in China fell sharply, with online sales dropping from 3.722 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021, and its market share in China reduced to 29.3% by 2024 [16][18] Group 2 - The article attributes the decline in sexual activity to high costs associated with dating, including financial, time, and emotional investments, making casual relationships less appealing [26][30] - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, contributing to decreased condom sales, as nearly half of condom usage occurs outside the home [29] - The article draws parallels with Japan's "low desire society," where similar trends have been observed, indicating a broader cultural shift [24][26] Group 3 - Despite the decline in traditional sexual products, there is a rise in alternative forms of companionship and self-fulfillment, such as pet ownership and hobbies, with the pet market expected to grow significantly [44][42] - The Chinese market for sexual wellness products is projected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [48][50] - The article suggests that the demand for intimacy and connection is evolving, leading to new business opportunities in various sectors, including emotional support services and single-person living arrangements [41][51]