头图由AI生成 在当今社会，我们经常听到"性萧条"这个词。 有一些数据也确实很震惊。 比如，曾经的龙头ED药企卖不动了，去年全年其销量共8785.19万片，与2023年相比，每天少卖了近 36500片，销售额也从上一年的12.90亿元下降至去年的10.34亿元。 图 片来源于网络 避孕套也卖不出去了，据《2024年中国避孕套行业发展报告》统计，国内全渠道销售额从2023年的 187.86亿元降至2024年的156亿元，一年内跌幅达17%。杜蕾斯（Durex）天猫电商平台销量从2019年的 372.2万件降至2021年的84.2万件；截至2024年，其中国区线上市场份额已缩至29.3%。 什么意思？不同的经济状态，大家的行为也不同。 金融风险管理领域有一句名言，风险不会消失，只会转移。同样的，性需求也不会消失，只会转移。 虽然曾经的龙头ED药企销量下降，但是近年来的新锐品牌惯爱的销量连续两年突破1亿片，稳居他达拉 非市场前列，销量非常好。 线上线下复购率连续三年保持在行业高位，老客户复购率超过50%。 相应的，相关企业都在大规模注销。2020年-2024年间，全国有超过7.8万家避孕套相关企业倒闭，平均 每年注 ...

Core Viewpoint - The condom industry in China is experiencing a significant decline, with a market size projected at approximately 15.6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 17% decrease year-on-year and a 19.2% decline compared to 2019 [8][9]. Group 1: Market Trends - The traditional logic of relationships has shifted from a sequence of dating, buying a house, getting married, and having children to a focus on individual well-being first [14]. - The number of single individuals in China has reached 297 million, accounting for 20.7% of the population, with 92 million living alone [16]. - The decline in condom sales is attributed to a decrease in intimate relationships, as many young people are choosing to remain single or delay marriage due to economic pressures and lifestyle preferences [15][18]. Group 2: Emerging Markets - As condom sales decline, the market for sexual wellness products is experiencing robust growth, with a projected market size of 194.21 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase and over 60% growth since 2019 [22]. - The repurchase rate for adult products is high at 38%, with the average order frequency increasing from 2.1 times in 2021 to 5.3 times in 2024 [25]. - The demographic of consumers is shifting, with over 65% of purchases made by individuals born in the 1990s and 2000s, and female consumers accounting for 67% of sales in female-oriented products [25]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - The perception of sexual wellness products has evolved from being seen as taboo to being embraced as part of self-care and personal enjoyment [32]. - The shift from relationship-based intimacy to self-pleasure reflects a broader change in consumer values, emphasizing self-care and individual satisfaction over dependency on others [36][38]. - The decline in condom sales and the rise in sexual wellness products indicate a transformation in how intimacy and personal pleasure are perceived and consumed in modern society [26][32].

Core Viewpoint - The "Condom Paradox," which suggested that condom sales increase during economic downturns, has failed in recent years, with significant declines in sales observed globally and in China [4][5][6]. Industry Overview - The global largest condom manufacturer, Karex Berhad, experienced a 40% drop in sales in 2020, marking its first loss since its listing, contrary to earlier optimistic predictions [5][13]. - The Chinese condom market is projected to decline from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17% [5][16]. - The overall condom market in China has shrunk by 25% from 2020 to 2024, with an average annual decline of about 6% [16]. Market Dynamics - The condom industry is facing a comprehensive downturn, affecting upstream production, midstream brands, and downstream sales [8]. - Major brands like Durex have seen a drastic drop in sales, with Durex's online sales in China plummeting from 3.72 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021 [14]. - Over 78,000 condom-related companies have closed between 2020 and 2024, averaging 17,300 closures per year [15]. Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to a reduction in interpersonal interactions and a shift towards alternative contraceptive methods, such as subdermal implants and oral contraceptives, which have seen significant growth [19][20]. - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, impacting the demand for condoms in non-home settings [19]. - The economic pressures have led to a decrease in young people's willingness to invest in intimate relationships, further contributing to the decline in condom sales [23][25]. Emerging Trends - In contrast to the declining condom market, the adult products industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size surpassing 200 billion yuan in 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market [29][31]. - The adult products market has seen a 24% growth in the past five years, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards self-pleasure products [29]. - The rise of female consumers in the adult products market is notable, with 70% of late-night orders coming from women, reflecting a change in attitudes towards sexual wellness and self-exploration [46][47].

Core Insights - The condom industry in China is experiencing a significant decline, with the market size projected to be approximately 15.6 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 17% year-on-year decrease and a 19.2% drop compared to 2019 [3][6][12] - This decline is attributed to changing attitudes towards relationships and marriage among the younger generation, leading to a decrease in the need for condoms [4][5][6] Market Trends - The traditional pathway of relationships has shifted from "dating → buying a house → marriage → having children" to a focus on individual well-being first [5] - The number of single individuals in China has reached 297 million, accounting for 20.7% of the population, with 92 million living alone [6][7] - The active sexual life among the youngest demographic is reportedly the lowest, with a significant percentage of partnered individuals not engaging in sexual activity [7] Consumer Behavior - Economic pressures and lifestyle preferences are driving more young people to choose single living, with many prioritizing career and personal goals over relationships [9] - The rise of the adult product market is notable, with the market size expected to reach 194.21 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth and over 60% growth since 2019 [12][16] - The purchasing behavior for adult products has shifted from occasional purchases to regular stocking, with a 90-day repurchase rate of 38% [16] Product Evolution - Adult products are increasingly viewed as essential for self-care rather than taboo items, with a focus on aesthetics and personal enjoyment [18][21] - The distinction between condom sales and adult product sales highlights a shift from relationship-based consumption to individual pleasure and self-satisfaction [21]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon known as the "condom paradox," where condom sales typically increase during economic downturns, but recent trends show a significant decline in sales, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and desires amidst economic pressures [3][4][12]. Group 1: Condom Market Trends - The condom industry is experiencing a comprehensive decline across the supply chain, with upstream rubber supply shrinking, midstream brand performance dropping, and downstream sales remaining sluggish, indicating a harsh industry winter [5][6]. - Karex Berhad, the world's largest condom manufacturer, saw a 40% drop in sales from 2020 to 2022, leading to a shift in production towards medical gloves [8]. - In China, the total sales revenue of condoms is projected to decrease from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 17% decline [3][12]. Group 2: Brand Performance - Durex's sales in China plummeted from 3.72 million units in 2019 to 842,000 units in 2021, with its market share dropping to 29.3% by 2024 [9]. - Jissbon, another major brand, has also reported declining market share and sales since 2022, with over 78,000 condom-related companies shutting down between 2020 and 2024 [11]. - The overall condom market in China has contracted by 25% from 208 billion yuan in 2020 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, with an average annual decline of about 6% [11][12]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced hotel occupancy rates and the rise of alternative contraceptive methods, such as subdermal implants and oral contraceptives, which have seen significant growth [12][13]. - The economic pressures have led to a decrease in young people's willingness to invest in intimate relationships, as they prioritize financial stability over romantic engagements [13][14]. - The shift in consumer preferences is evident as the demand for sexual wellness products has increased, with the adult products market in China projected to exceed 200 billion yuan by 2024, significantly outpacing the condom market [19][20]. Group 4: Rise of Adult Products - The adult products industry has seen a remarkable growth rate of 24% over the past five years, with a market size that is over 13 times larger than that of condoms [19]. - The user base for adult products is increasingly female, with 70% of late-night orders coming from women, indicating a shift in consumer demographics and preferences [24]. - The marketing focus for adult products has transitioned from pleasing partners to self-acceptance and personal enjoyment, reflecting a broader cultural shift towards individual sexual empowerment [30].

Core Insights - The condom market is experiencing a significant decline in sales, while the sex toy market is booming, indicating a shift in consumer preferences and behaviors [2][12]. Industry Overview - Durex, a leading brand in the condom market, has seen its sales drop dramatically, with Tmall sales plummeting from 3.72 million units in 2019 to 840,000 units in 2021, a decrease of 77% [4]. - As of 2024, Durex's market share in China has shrunk to 29.3%, down from over 50% in 2019 [4]. - The overall condom industry is facing a "snowball effect" of business closures, with over 40,000 condom-related companies shutting down between 2020 and mid-2022, averaging more than 17,000 closures per year [9]. Market Dynamics - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, contributing to a decline in condom usage, which is often associated with temporary relationships [11]. - New contraceptive methods, such as subdermal implants and oral contraceptives, are becoming more popular, reducing the reliance on condoms [11]. Sex Toy Market Growth - The sex toy market in China surpassed 200 billion yuan in 2024, making it 13 times larger than the condom market [12]. - Online sales of sex toys are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 12.45% from 2022 to 2027, with a potential increase of approximately 13.4 billion USD [14]. - The repurchase rate for adult products is high, with a 38% rate reported over 90 days, and the average order frequency increasing from 2.1 times in 2021 to 5.3 times in 2024 [14]. Consumer Behavior Shift - The rise in sex toy sales reflects a broader change in consumer attitudes towards intimacy and personal pleasure, moving away from traditional relationships [16][20]. - The increasing number of single individuals in China, estimated at 297 million or 20.7% of the population, indicates a societal shift towards individualism in personal relationships [17]. - Consumers are prioritizing self-pleasure and autonomy over traditional romantic relationships, leading to a re-evaluation of intimacy and sexual experiences [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon known as the "condom paradox," which suggests that condom sales increase during economic downturns. However, recent trends show a significant decline in condom sales, contradicting this historical pattern, indicating a broader shift in consumer behavior and desires [4][5][14]. Group 1: Condom Market Decline - The condom industry is experiencing a comprehensive downturn, with upstream production, midstream brands, and downstream sales all shrinking. This indicates a significant industry-wide recession [6][10]. - Karex Berhad, the world's largest condom manufacturer, reported a 40% drop in sales from 2020 to 2022, leading to its first-ever loss since going public. The company had to pivot some production lines to medical gloves to cope with the crisis [9][12]. - In China, the total sales revenue of the condom market is projected to decline from 187.86 billion yuan in 2023 to 156 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 17% decrease [4][12]. Group 2: Changing Consumer Behavior - The decline in condom sales is attributed to a reduction in interpersonal interactions and a shift in sexual behavior, with many consumers opting for alternative contraceptive methods such as implants and oral pills, which have seen significant growth [13][14]. - The average hotel occupancy rate in China was only 58.8% in 2024, which has negatively impacted the demand for condoms typically used outside the home [12]. - The rise of single-person households, with over 297 million single individuals in China, reflects a cultural shift where many choose to prioritize personal fulfillment over traditional relationships [25][28]. Group 3: Growth of Adult Products - In contrast to the declining condom market, the adult products industry is booming, with the market size expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2024, making it over 13 times larger than the condom market [19][20]. - The adult products sector has seen a significant increase in consumer engagement, with a 90-day repurchase rate of 38% for adult products, indicating a strong shift in consumer preferences [21][22]. - The marketing focus for adult products has shifted from pleasing partners to self-acceptance and personal enjoyment, reflecting a broader societal change in attitudes towards sexuality [34][35].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of women's intimate health in China, driven by national policies and societal awareness, highlighting a shift towards comprehensive health services that encompass physical, psychological, and relational aspects [1][2][5]. User Perspectives - Women are experiencing a "cognitive awakening" regarding intimate health, shifting their focus from purely physiological issues to include psychological and relational dimensions, with 92.5% recognizing its significance [2][5]. - A significant portion of women (82.8%) report facing various intimate health issues, with gynecological infections and menstrual irregularities being the most common concerns across different age groups [48]. Industry Development Status: Demand Side - There is a need for continuous market education as 38.4% of women understand intimate health, but 60% still have limited awareness, indicating a gap that needs to be addressed [11]. - The demand for intimate health products is diversifying, with a growing emphasis on postpartum recovery and ovarian care, alongside a cautious consumer attitude towards efficacy and safety [11][14]. Industry Development Status: Supply Side - The market is witnessing a proliferation of intimate health institutions, but many face challenges such as inadequate service quality and compliance issues, leading to a potential phase of consolidation [14][17]. - The intimate health sector is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size exceeding 1 trillion by 2027 and 2 trillion by 2030 [17]. Market Segmentation - The "Yueji Girl" demographic, primarily unmarried women in first and new first-tier cities, shows a strong focus on self-care and intimate health awareness [20]. - The "Elegant Mom" group, consisting of married women in second and third-tier cities, faces increased pressure and health concerns post-childbirth, leading to a shift in their health priorities [23][28]. Consumer Behavior - Women are increasingly seeking intimate health products and services driven by health awareness and psychological needs, with a rational decision-making process that involves thorough research before purchase [60]. - Satisfaction levels with intimate health products are low, with only 24.5% expressing high satisfaction, particularly among women aged 36-55 who are more attuned to the value of these products [64]. Industry Trends - The intimate health market is evolving towards a more professional and differentiated landscape, with a focus on safety, efficacy, and consumer education as key drivers for sustainable growth [73]. - The liberation of women's needs is leading to the emergence of high-potential niche markets, particularly in areas like menopause management and pelvic health, which are expected to see significant growth [76].