关于港股后市 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：李佛。 中信证券认为，港股方面，受益于内部的"十五五"催化以及外部主要经济体的"财政+货币"双宽松，港 股2026年有望迎来第二轮估值修复以及业绩进一步复苏的行情，建议关注科技、大医疗、资源品、必选 消费、造纸和航空板块。 招商证券认为，市场经历拔估值后，叠加宏观内需约束限制指数上行天花板，将进入由质量驱动的结构 性分化阶段。该机构建议双线并行，恒科反弹+增强哑铃：聚焦超跌反弹和成长，优先配置估值回归合 理的恒生科技指数(AI互联网龙头等)。哑铃增强：进攻端：有色金属(商品增强)+保险板块(权益Beta增 强)。防守端：高股息资产(固收增强)作为"压舱石"。 1月12日，恒生指数高开0.55%，恒生科技指数涨0.88%。盘面上，科网股活跃，美团、百度集团均涨超 2%;锂矿股强势，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业均涨超4%;贵金属板块再度走强，紫金矿业涨近3%，中国铝业涨 超2%。 浙商国际认为，港股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境有所回落，政策面重点关注新质生产力和扩大内 需，情绪面短期回暖。当下港股市场周月线级别趋势仍位于右侧区间，对于后续走势，即使短期行情有 波折，我们仍不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a strong upward trend, with a continuous rise for five months, despite underlying economic weaknesses [1][2]. Market Performance Review - In September, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline at the beginning, followed by a sustained rebound due to favorable factors such as the U.S. interest rate cut and significant inflows from the south. The Hang Seng Index reached a peak of over 27,000 points [2]. - The monthly performance of major indices as of the end of September was as follows: Hang Seng Composite Index +8.11%, Hang Seng Index +7.09%, and Hang Seng Tech Index +13.95% [2]. Macro Environment Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Economic data in August showed further weakening, indicating that the domestic economy is still in a bottoming phase [3]. - **Policy**: The policy stance has become more proactive to support economic stability and growth [3]. - **Capital**: There has been a significant acceleration of southbound capital inflows, and the external funding environment has improved, leading to increased investment in Hong Kong stocks [3]. - **Sentiment**: The strong market performance has driven bullish sentiment, although concerns about the fundamentals remain [3]. Market Outlook and Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market's fundamentals remain weak, but the capital environment is improving, and there is strong short-term bullish sentiment. The market trend has entered a right-side phase, and a cautious optimism is maintained for the short to medium term [4]. - Preferred sectors for investment include automobiles, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology, which are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support [4]. - Additionally, low-valuation state-owned enterprises with stable performance and dividends, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility stocks that benefit from the interest rate cut cycle, are also favored [4]. - Attention should be paid to potential impacts from the U.S.-China trade disputes, with a recommendation to avoid sectors and companies with significant exposure to U.S. business [4].

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance this week, driven by southbound capital, rising interest rate cut expectations, and technology sector strength, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by +4.07%, +3.82%, and +5.31% respectively [3][13] - Most primary industry sectors recorded gains, with the materials sector continuing to perform strongly, achieving a weekly increase of over 6%. The information technology sector, led by major tech companies like Alibaba and Tencent, also saw a weekly increase exceeding 6% [3][13] - As of the end of the week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stood at 82.57%, indicating a valuation level above the 5-year average [3] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment for the Hong Kong market remains closely tied to the performance of the Chinese economy, with over 80% of profits in the Hong Kong market coming from Chinese companies [39][41] - In August, China's exports in USD terms grew by 4.4% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.3%, both figures falling short of expectations [39][46] - The People's Bank of China is expected to conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 15, indicating ongoing monetary support [41] Sector Allocation Outlook - The report favors sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][46] - Low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks, are also highlighted as favorable [3][46] - Attention is drawn to potential impacts from the US-China trade disputes, with recommendations to avoid sectors and companies with significant exposure to the US market [3][46] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 3.81 billion HKD, a decrease from the previous week's 5.58 billion HKD, with 49 companies participating in buybacks [27][30] - Tencent Holdings led the buyback activity with 2.75 billion HKD, followed by HSBC Holdings with 490 million HKD [27][30] - The information technology and financial sectors saw the highest number of companies engaging in buybacks, with 12 and 9 companies respectively [30]