浙商国际发布研报称，回顾9月港股市场走势，市场振荡向上加速上涨，连续5个月收涨。整体来看，港 股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境进一步改善，政策面巩固经济稳增长，情绪面短期做多情绪浓重。当 下港股市场周月线级别趋势已进入右侧区间，对于后续走势，即使短期行情有波折，仍不建议悲观。对 于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。板块配置方面，看好行业相对景气且受益于政策利好的汽 车、新消费、创新药、科技等。 从各个角度简要总结当下市场环境。基本面：8月经济数据整体表现进一步走弱，国内经济仍处于筑底 期；政策面：政策基调强调更加积极有为，以巩固经济稳增长的基础；资金面：内部南向资金加速流 入，外部资金环境进一步改善，更多资金开始介入港股；情绪面：市场强势表现驱动看多情绪，但市场 对于基本面的担忧仍在。 2025年10月港股市场展望及配置策略 港股市场基本面仍偏弱，资金面环境进一步改善，政策面巩固经济稳增长，情绪面短期做多情绪浓重。 当下港股市场周月线级别趋势已进入右侧区间，对于后续走势，即使短期行情有波折，仍不建议悲观。 对于中短期市场走势继续保持谨慎乐观的态度。板块配置方面，看好行业相对景气且受益于政策利好的 汽车、新消 ...

Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance this week, driven by southbound capital, rising interest rate cut expectations, and technology sector strength, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by +4.07%, +3.82%, and +5.31% respectively [3][13] - Most primary industry sectors recorded gains, with the materials sector continuing to perform strongly, achieving a weekly increase of over 6%. The information technology sector, led by major tech companies like Alibaba and Tencent, also saw a weekly increase exceeding 6% [3][13] - As of the end of the week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile for the Hang Seng Composite Index stood at 82.57%, indicating a valuation level above the 5-year average [3] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment for the Hong Kong market remains closely tied to the performance of the Chinese economy, with over 80% of profits in the Hong Kong market coming from Chinese companies [39][41] - In August, China's exports in USD terms grew by 4.4% year-on-year, while imports increased by 1.3%, both figures falling short of expectations [39][46] - The People's Bank of China is expected to conduct a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on September 15, indicating ongoing monetary support [41] Sector Allocation Outlook - The report favors sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][46] - Low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks, are also highlighted as favorable [3][46] - Attention is drawn to potential impacts from the US-China trade disputes, with recommendations to avoid sectors and companies with significant exposure to the US market [3][46] Buyback Statistics - The total buyback amount for the week was 3.81 billion HKD, a decrease from the previous week's 5.58 billion HKD, with 49 companies participating in buybacks [27][30] - Tencent Holdings led the buyback activity with 2.75 billion HKD, followed by HSBC Holdings with 490 million HKD [27][30] - The information technology and financial sectors saw the highest number of companies engaging in buybacks, with 12 and 9 companies respectively [30]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index is expected to continue rising as uncertainties diminish following the disclosure of half-year data [1] - The relaxation of US chip export controls has led to a significant rebound in technology stocks, with Alibaba experiencing a five-day consecutive increase [1] - Analysts believe that the overall market outlook is positive due to favorable expectations for China's economy and the impact of relaxed US chip export restrictions on AI development and the chip supply chain [1] Group 2 - The upcoming half-year report disclosures will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of the upward trend in the market, particularly in the AI sector [2] - China's GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year exceeded market expectations, with a smaller-than-expected negative impact from tariffs on economic growth [2] - Analysts suggest that the second half may see a shift towards fiscal stimulus and measures to boost consumption, while maintaining a stable RMB [2] Group 3 - Weak inflation in June may lead to improved PPI in the second half, with a focus on addressing low-price competition among enterprises [3] - Investment opportunities are seen in sectors benefiting from policy support, such as automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3] - Caution is advised regarding potential impacts from US-China trade disputes, particularly for sectors with significant exposure to the US market [3]

Group 1: Impact of "Anti-Inner-Loop" Policy on the Market - The "Anti-Inner-Loop" policy has gained significant attention from the central government, particularly in industries facing overcapacity, as highlighted in the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1, 2025 [2][11] - Following the policy announcement, sectors such as photovoltaic and cement have taken measures to reduce production and optimize industry structure, leading to a strong market response with noticeable capital inflow [2][11] - The policy aims to enhance supply structure, stabilize market expectations, and improve overall industry efficiency and competitiveness [11][12] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The current market is in a volatile phase, with investment hotspots concentrated in technology, military industry, and state-owned enterprises, benefiting from stable policies and capital inflow from U.S. markets [5][16] - The technology sector is expected to be a key focus in July, supported by reduced policy uncertainty and domestic planning emphasizing technology [16][17] - The military sector is anticipated to perform well due to increased defense budgets and upcoming high-profile military events [17] - State-owned enterprises and public utilities are seen as having good allocation value in the third quarter, given the weakening internal dynamics of real estate and strict regulatory measures [18] Group 3: Market Overview and Trends - The market has shown a trend of oscillating upward, with major indices such as the Wind All A, CSI 300, and CSI 2000 rising by 1.22%, 1.54%, and 0.59% respectively [8][21] - The steel, banking, and building materials sectors have led the market, indicating a recovery in activity levels [21][23] - The average turnover rate for the entire market has increased, reflecting a rise in trading activity [27][28]