Q&A 今年港股市场的表现如何？未来可能会有怎样的走势？ 今年（2025 年）港股市场表现强劲，恒生指数涨幅已接近 30%。尽管如此， 距离历史前高仍有约 30%的空间。历史数据显示，港股在美联储政策相对宽松 时期（如降息或低利率时期）更容易突破历史前高。目前，美联储可能在 9 月 份进一步降息，今年内降息两次的概率较高。这将降低美国无风险利率，吸引 更多海外资金流入港股市场，从宏观角度来看，这对港股是利好消息。 多数行业估值水平仍低于历史中位数 ——港股牛市观察 20250826 摘要 美联储降息预期利好港股：预计 9 月可能降息，年内降息两次概率较高， 降低美国无风险利率，吸引海外资金流入，为港股提供流动性支持。 港股行业表现分化：医疗保健和非必须消费行业交易活跃度显著上升， 金融业交易量在 7 月达到高峰后回落。多数行业估值低于历史 50%分位 数，股息率维持较高水平。 美联储政策影响：香港作为开放金融中心，受美国货币政策影响显著。 美联储宽松政策有助于外资流入，提升港股市场流动性，历史数据显示 降息周期港股更易突破前高。 美联储未来动向：市场预期美联储 9 月降息概率超过 80%，年底前或有 两次及以 ...

张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 王德健 研究助理 wangdejian@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 流动性改善支持港股补涨，关注创新药与互联网机会 ——港股市场策略周报（0825） 近期流动性叙事的改善，或足以支持港股的补涨。业绩方面，港股目前业绩预 喜率为 2022 年以来新高。展望后市，我们仍然对港股保持乐观态度，方向上建 议聚焦与 A 股存在差异化的行业，节奏上建议先创新药、再互联网，最后新消 费。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《港股 IPO 的抽水效应如何—— 港股系列研究报告（1）》 2. 《港股市场流动性跟踪框架—— 港股系列研究报告（2）》 ❑ 港股观点更新：流动性叙事的改变，或足以支持港股补涨。近期 Hibor 利率 快速上行后逐步稳定、鲍威尔表态显著转鸽，内外流动性的变化均指向一个 结论：港股流动性趋紧的叙事已经得到了边际改善。我们认为，流动性叙事 的改善已经足 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant increase in share buybacks in 2023, indicating that companies are taking advantage of historically low valuations and improving their capital structures [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Trends - From January 1 to July 31, 2023, 212 Hong Kong-listed companies repurchased a total of 4.611 billion shares, amounting to HKD 104.7 billion [1]. - The healthcare, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors have the highest number of companies participating in buybacks, reflecting a broadening of market confidence [1]. - Tencent Holdings led the buyback activity with a total repurchase amount of HKD 40.043 billion, accounting for 38.25% of the total buyback value in the market [2]. Group 2: Tencent Holdings Buyback Details - Tencent has consistently increased its buyback amounts over the years, with HKD 25.99 billion in 2021, HKD 337.94 billion in 2022, and HKD 494.33 billion in 2023 [3]. - In the first seven months of 2023, Tencent repurchased 8.884 million shares, with an average daily buyback amount exceeding HKD 600 million [2][3]. - The monthly buyback amounts exceeded HKD 10 billion in five months, with the highest in June at HKD 20.834 billion [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's upcoming reform in June 2024 will allow companies to hold repurchased shares as treasury stock, which is expected to enhance buyback activity and efficiency [3]. - The total buyback amount for the second half of 2023 is projected to remain around HKD 100 billion, similar to the first half [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant inflow of capital into the Hong Kong technology sector, driven by mainland investors seeking opportunities in undervalued assets [4][6][11]. - The southbound capital has net bought approximately 840 billion HKD in Hong Kong stocks in just seven months of 2025, surpassing the total for the entire previous year and setting a historical record since the launch of the Stock Connect [4][6]. - The Hong Kong Technology Index is noted for its broader coverage of sectors, including electric vehicles and innovative pharmaceuticals, which may provide better performance potential compared to the Hang Seng Technology Index [7][9]. Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology 50 ETF (159750) has seen significant capital inflows, with 150.7 million HKD net bought yesterday and an additional 36 million HKD today, indicating strong investor interest in low-cost entry points [1][10]. - The performance of the Hong Kong Technology Index has outpaced the Hang Seng Technology Index over various time frames, with returns of 30.94%, 57.40%, and 95.02% over the past year, two years, and ten years, respectively [9][11]. - The article suggests that the Hong Kong Technology sector is becoming an important outlet for mainland funds seeking allocation opportunities, especially given its relatively low valuations and potential for earnings recovery [6][12].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in the second half of 2025, predicting a potential upward trend for the Hang Seng Index, which is expected to reach 27,500 points by the end of December 2025, based on a forecasted P/E ratio of 12.2 times [2][30] - The Chinese decision-makers are expected to implement incremental policies to strengthen domestic circulation, promote supply-side reforms, and expand domestic consumption demand [2][30] - The report highlights attractive valuation levels in the current Hong Kong stock market, suggesting that the market is currently in a historically lower valuation range compared to previous years [2][31] Group 2: Sector Performance - In the first half of 2025, the Hong Kong stock market outperformed other major global markets, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 20.0% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 18.68% [3][4] - The healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors showed strong performance, with respective increases of 47.7%, 45.6%, and 29.8% [4][7] - The report notes that the premium of A-shares over H-shares has decreased, indicating a narrowing gap in valuations between the two markets [4][16] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in areas such as supply-side reform, infrastructure development, and consumer-driven companies, particularly those with low valuations and high dividend yields [2][30] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading consumer companies and domestic brands that are benefiting from accelerated domestic substitution processes [2][30] - The ongoing infrastructure projects, such as the construction of the largest hydropower station in China, are expected to benefit related sectors, including construction, machinery, and materials [2][38] Group 4: Capital Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong capital market remains liquid, with significant inflows from southbound trading, which accounted for 22.1% of total market turnover by June 30, 2025 [17][23] - The report indicates that the IPO financing amount in Hong Kong reached $141 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 695% year-on-year increase, positioning Hong Kong as the top global IPO market [17][23] - The report also highlights the impact of geopolitical risks on market sentiment, noting that companies with mainland backgrounds dominate the Hong Kong market, comprising 80.97% of total market capitalization [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the proportion of actively managed equity funds holding Hong Kong stocks has reached a historical high, driven by a significant increase in global interest in Chinese assets [1][3]. - As of the end of Q2, the total market value of Hong Kong stocks held by public funds reached 734.3 billion yuan, a 12.8% increase from the previous quarter, with the proportion of public fund holdings in Hong Kong stocks rising from 36.9% to 39.8% [2]. - The actively managed equity funds specifically increased their holdings in the healthcare and financial sectors while reducing exposure in information technology and discretionary consumer sectors [2]. Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index has seen a year-to-date increase of nearly 27%, making it the best-performing major index globally, with fund managers expressing optimism about the market's future [4]. - Fund managers are particularly optimistic about structural opportunities in various sectors, including new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and traditional industries like "AI+", overseas expansion, and smart manufacturing [4]. - The increasing allocation of public funds to Hong Kong stocks reflects a growing attractiveness of the market, with over 50% of public funds now having the ability to invest in Hong Kong stocks as of Q2 2025 [3].

Group 1 - A-shares have shown a structural market characteristic, with strong performance in consumer sectors such as food and beverage, and retail, as well as certain technology sectors like AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][4] - The top five performing industries in A-shares include agriculture, media, food and beverage, electrical equipment, and retail, indicating a growing interest in agricultural assets and a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The bottom five performing industries in A-shares are electronics, steel, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and storage chips, with the decline in non-ferrous metals linked to proposed US tariffs on copper [2] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare sector has seen a rise due to active innovative drug concepts, despite potential US tariffs on pharmaceuticals [3] - The top three performing industries in Hong Kong include healthcare, industrial, and energy, while the bottom three are materials, information technology, and real estate, reflecting external pressures from US tariff policies and global tech supply-demand imbalances [3] - The current market characteristics indicate that A-shares are driven by policy and sectoral improvements, while Hong Kong stocks are more influenced by external factors such as US tariffs and global technology cycles [4] Group 3 - Short-term market hotspots are concentrated around policy-driven sectors and improving industry conditions, with a focus on performance in the upcoming earnings reports [4] - The breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points is expected to further boost market confidence, with potential policy signals from the July Politburo meeting influencing capital flows [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the transformation of asset and funding structures in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to enhance trading activity and liquidity, leading to long-term growth opportunities for capital market institutions with high business exposure and competitive advantages [1]. Group 1: Changes in Assets - The "A+H" listing and potential return of Chinese concept stocks are expected to inject quality assets into the Hong Kong market, enhancing valuation and trading turnover [3]. - The market is witnessing an increase in new economy companies, with their market capitalization share projected to rise from 27% in 2015 to 51% by the end of 2024, and trading volume share from 30% to 59% [21][24]. - The average turnover rate for new economy stocks is estimated to be 1.3 times that of traditional assets, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.3 times higher than traditional sectors [25][28]. Group 2: Changes in Funding - The influx of southbound capital and increased retail trading are expected to drive the turnover rate higher, with southbound trading turnover averaging 2.4 times that of non-southbound trading [4][30]. - The share of southbound capital in the Hong Kong market has increased from 1.8% in March 2017 to 12.0% by June 2025, indicating a growing trend in high-frequency trading [30][31]. - Retail investor participation is on the rise, with internet brokerage firms' market share increasing from 4.5% in 2023 to 5.1% in 2025, suggesting a shift towards more active trading behavior among individual investors [36][41]. Group 3: Market Liquidity and Valuation - The average daily trading volume (ADT) in the Hong Kong market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% over the next decade, driven by both asset and funding transformations [41]. - The total market capitalization is expected to increase due to both existing companies' performance and new listings, with a historical average of IPO financing accounting for 1.9% of the total market capitalization [6][12]. - The article highlights that the ongoing optimization of listing mechanisms and the influx of new economy companies will further support the upward movement of the valuation and trading activity in the Hong Kong market [21][24].

Group 1: Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant pullback this week due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and the Hong Kong dollar approaching the weak side guarantee, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index declining by -1.70%, -1.52%, and -2.03% respectively [3][13] - Most primary industry sectors saw declines, with the healthcare sector experiencing a substantial drop of nearly 8%, the largest among all sectors, while only the information technology sector saw a slight increase of 0.2% [3][13] - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile of the Hang Seng Composite Index rose to 72%, exceeding the 5-year average [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment indicates that economic activity data for May continued to weaken, with consumption performance exceeding expectations mainly due to shopping festival timing and subsidies, raising questions about sustainability [3][48] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained the benchmark interest rate, aligning with expectations, but conveyed a hawkish tone emphasizing the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [3][46] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][48] - It also highlights the importance of low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks that are relatively independent and benefit from the interest rate cut cycle [3][48] Group 4: Buyback Statistics - The buyback market showed improvement this week, with 55 companies participating, up from 53 the previous week, and total buyback amounts reaching 6.61 billion HKD, a significant increase from 3.96 billion HKD last week [3][27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with 2.5 billion HKD, followed by Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) with 1.57 billion HKD, and AIA Group (1299.HK) with 1.15 billion HKD [3][27] Group 5: Southbound Capital Flow - The top net buying companies through the Southbound Stock Connect included China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy of 3.48 billion HKD, Meituan-W (3690.HK) with 2.49 billion HKD, and China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) with 2.23 billion HKD [3][34] - Conversely, the top net selling companies included Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with a net sell of 4.81 billion HKD and Alibaba-W (9988.HK) with 4.38 billion HKD [3][35]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has outperformed major global markets since 2025, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both showing over 21% cumulative gains as of June 11, 2023 [1] - The net inflow of southbound funds has exceeded 670 billion HKD this year, setting a historical record for the same period, significantly boosting the market's performance [1] - Nearly 80% of the stocks in the Hang Seng Index have risen, with BYD leading the charge with over 60% growth [1] Sector Performance - The healthcare, materials, and information technology sectors have led the market, with gains of 50.54%, 36.41%, and 28.32% respectively [1] - The financial and discretionary consumer sectors have also recorded gains exceeding 22% [1] Investment Outlook - Analysts from CICC highlight structural advantages in the Chinese macro and market environment, such as stable dividend returns and growth lines in new consumption, AI technology, and innovative pharmaceuticals, making Hong Kong stocks more attractive compared to other markets [3] - Multiple brokerage firms maintain an optimistic outlook for the second half of the year, with expectations of a rebound in valuations and earnings in the fourth quarter [3] - Predictions suggest that southbound capital inflows could reach between 200 billion to 300 billion HKD in the second half, with total annual inflows potentially exceeding 1 trillion HKD [3] Investment Recommendations - CICC recommends focusing on stable returns (like deposits, government bonds, and dividend assets) and growth returns (such as technology, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals) [4] - Huatai Securities identifies consumption and technology as key investment themes, favoring internet consumption, pharmaceuticals, personal care products, and hard tech sectors [4] - The primary market for Hong Kong stocks is showing signs of recovery, with opportunities in the brokerage sector due to increased demand for cross-border wealth management [4]