[Table_Page] 金融工程|量化投资专题 2026 年 3 月 3 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 港股通成分股调入调出效应与预测 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： | [分析师： Table_Author]陈原文 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260517080003 | | 0755-82797057 | | chenyuanwen@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 安宁宁 | | SAC 执证号：S0260512020003 | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | 0755-23948352 | | anningning@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，陈原文并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 | | 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 金融工程:成长质量选股探讨 | 2026-02-13 | | --- | --- | | 基于卷积神经网络的指数轮 | 2026-02-13 | | 动策略:行业主题轮动研究报 | | | 告 | | | 业绩预告与行业表现呈现分 | 2026 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略点评 策略点评 20260302 科技阵痛与地缘阴霾交织，静待"两会"破 局之机——港股周观点 [Table_Summary] ◼ 一、本周回顾（2026/2/23-2/27）：全球主要市场涨跌互现，韩国综指、日 经 225 指数涨幅居前，印度 SENSEX30、恒生科技指数跌幅居前。恒生科 技下跌1.4%，恒指上涨0.8%，恒生国企下跌1.1%。行业上，原材料业（4.8%）、 金融业（2.9%）、地产建筑业（2.8%）领涨；医疗保健业（-5%）、非必需 性消费（-1.8%）领跌。 本周港股表现分化。美股围绕英伟达财报和"HALO"交易，市场对 AI 支 出的担忧持续，谨慎对待轻资产"代码"叙事。在地缘风险持续上升和中东 冲突的背景下，重资产特性的企业和实物资产在近期成为共识的避险选择， 原材料、能源、工业等中上游行业获得资金青睐。 南向资金减速流入。港股通净流入 67 亿元，港股成交额占比降至本周 32%。 净流入：资讯科技业、非必需性消费、地产建筑业；净流出：电讯业、公用 事业。净买入 TOP：美团、小米集团、腾讯。 本周内地投向中国香港市场的 ETF（港股通+QDII）净流入 ...

智通财经2月27日讯（编辑 冯轶）今日港股2月行情正式收官。据Wind数据显示，2月南向资金累计净流入约905.75亿港元，为近3个月以来的单月新高。 需要指出的是，考虑到春节假期影响，本月港股通仅有14个交易日，日均流入达64.69亿港元，环比1月增长近9成，实际呈现爆发式流入。 其中，有5个交易日单日净买入规模超过百亿，且频频刷新阶段性纪录。 可以看到，尽管港股大市行情2月震荡走弱，但在恒指中枢下移过程中，南向资金仍在主动加仓。 | | 南向资金2月流向 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 所属行业 | 净买卖金额(亿) | 占行业总市值 | | 资讯科技业 | 393.72 | -1.1 | | 非必需性消费 | 211.96 | -1.04 | | 地产建筑业 | 99.4 | 0.35 | | 要鄙亦 | 97.62 | 0.95 | | 能源业 | 61.57 | 0.75 | | 必用事业 | 26.96 | 50'0 | | 工业 | 26.06 | 0.46 | | 医疗保健业 | 18.04 | -0.5. | | 综合企业 | 1.82 | 0.01 | | 必需性消费 ...

从行业板块方面看，马年春节以来，港股市场行业板块普遍上涨，电讯业、能源业、工业领涨市场，分 别累计上涨2.62%、2.48%、2.43%，原材料业累计涨幅超1%，资讯科技业、金融业、非必需性消费等 小幅上涨；而必需性消费、综合企业、医疗保健业下跌。 个股方面，整个港股市场马年春节以来近半数股票上涨，大昌微线集团累计涨幅超100%，玖源集团、 普天通信集团、亚博科技控股等累计涨幅超50%，中国信息科技、迅策、智谱等累计涨幅超20%。 ● 本报记者 刘英杰 马年春节开市以来，港股市场震荡调整，科技新势力表现活跃，半导体板块上涨趋势明显。 分析人士认为，随着AI大模型加速落地、人形机器人产业不断催化，叠加上市公司业绩披露期渐近， 中国资产有望持续获得投资者关注。尽管短期市场有所波动，但在估值优势、产业趋势与资金流向等多 重积极因素共振下，港股春季行情有望渐次展开。 指数震荡分化 马年春节开市以来（2月20日至2月24日）的三个交易日，港股市场主要股指震荡，恒生指数累计下跌 0.43%，恒生中国企业指数累计下跌0.69%，恒生科技指数累计下跌1.80%。但从2026年1月以来，港股 三大指数仅恒生科技指数累计下跌超4 ...

董事会认为，公司获纳入恒生综合指数及上述指数的成份股反映市场对集团的积极业务表现、投资价值 及发展潜力的进一步认可。预期公司的公众知名度将得到提升， H股的交易流动性亦将得到改善，从而 为集团提供更多业务发展及合作可能性。 迅策(03317)公布，公司已获恒生指数有限公司选择及将被纳入下列指数的成份股：恒生综合指数、恒 生综合行业指数 — 资讯科技业、恒生综合中小型股指数、恒生综合小型股指数、恒生资讯科技业(可投 资)指数、恒生港股通资讯科技业指数、恒生港股通软件主题指数 、恒生港股通软件及半导体指数，自 2026年3月9日起生效。 ...

董事会认为，公司获纳入恒生综合指数及上述指数的成份股反映市场对集团的积极业务表现、投资价值 及发展潜力的进一步认可。预期公司的公众知名度将得到提升， H股的交易流动性亦将得到改善，从而 为集团提供更多业务发展及合作可能性。 智通财经APP讯，迅策(03317)公布，公司已获恒生指数有限公司选择及将被纳入下列指数的成份股：恒 生综合指数、恒生综合行业指数 — 资讯科技业、恒生综合中小型股指数、恒生综合小型股指数、恒生 资讯科技业(可投资)指数、恒生港股通资讯科技业指数、恒生港股通软件主题指数 、恒生港股通软件及 半导体指数，自2026年3月9日起生效。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Xunce Technology Co., Ltd. has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, marking a significant milestone in its capital market journey and enhancing its investor base and liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Xunce Technology is recognized as a leading real-time data infrastructure and analytics solution provider in China, serving various industries including finance, urban management, and telecommunications [3][4]. - The company has established a strong customer base, including top asset managers and major telecommunications operators in China [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Recognition - Xunce Technology is often compared to Palantir, as it offers a comprehensive data processing solution that spans data acquisition, cleaning, standardization, real-time computation, and model optimization [4]. - The company ranks first in the real-time data infrastructure and analytics market within China's asset management sector and fourth overall in the real-time data market [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The company’s VOne platform boasts millisecond-level data processing capabilities and can connect to over 1,000 external data sources, ensuring 100% data consistency and traceability [5]. - Xunce Technology is integrating large language models into its VOne platform, enhancing user interaction with data analysis through features like "Chat with Data" [5]. Group 4: Investment Potential - The investment value of core technology companies, including Xunce Technology, is gaining recognition amid China's push for technological self-reliance [6]. - Analysts have noted that Xunce Technology's real-time data platform is crucial for businesses facing challenges related to data dispersion and real-time processing [7]. - Deutsche Bank has initiated coverage on Xunce Technology, positioning it as a leader in real-time data infrastructure and analytics solutions, with a target price of 85 HKD, indicating potential upside from its current price [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent influx of southbound capital into the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector, indicates a potential bottoming out despite ongoing market adjustments [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Inflow Trends - Southbound capital has seen a significant net inflow of 637 billion HKD over seven trading days, with notable daily net purchases exceeding 100 billion HKD [1][2]. - The primary sectors attracting this capital include information technology (71.24 billion HKD), financial services (60.84 billion HKD), non-essential consumer goods (51.41 billion HKD), and real estate (41.46 billion HKD) [2]. - Major stocks receiving substantial inflows include Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group, with net purchases of 60.77 billion HKD and 31.05 billion HKD, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Analysts suggest that the current valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is approximately 22.13 times earnings, which is at a historical low of 24.31% [6]. - Despite the influx of southbound capital, there remains a prevailing cautious sentiment in the market, as evidenced by a net outflow of 18.87 billion HKD on February 9 [5][6]. - The overall market is perceived to be in a deep value zone, with some analysts indicating that the market requires additional conditions to confirm a bottom [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are focusing on a balanced approach, emphasizing both growth and value sectors, particularly in technology and high-dividend assets [7][8]. - Analysts recommend a selective investment strategy, highlighting opportunities in AI-related sectors, high-quality dividend stocks, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8]. - The importance of stock selection is increasing, with suggestions to adopt a phased investment approach while monitoring policy changes and global liquidity [8].

当港股市场，尤其是科技板块迎来阶段性调整时，一股"热钱"却汹涌南下。 Wind数据显示，截至2月6日的7个交易日内，南向资金连续净流入，累计达637亿港元。其中，2月4日至2月6日连续三个交易日单日净买入额 均超百亿港元，2月5日更是录得250亿港元。近期，南向资金大手笔"抄底"科技与金融龙头，引发市场高度关注。 21世纪经济报道特约记者 庞华玮 在港股持续调整之时，近期南向资金超600亿港元的逆势涌入成为最瞩目的信号，港股市场底部之争再起。 格上基金研究员关晓敏指出，1月中旬以来恒生科技指数震荡下跌，2月初加速探底，而南向资金正是在加速下跌时期逆势大幅净流入。这一行 为表明南向资金对当前港股估值水平的认可。 从资金流向的结构来看，布局方向集中且明确。上一周（2月2日至2月6日，下同），南向资金净买入前四大行业分别为资讯科技业（71.24亿 港元）、金融业（60.84亿港元）、非必需性消费（51.41亿港元）和地产建筑业（41.46亿港元）。 个股方面，腾讯控股、小米集团-W分别获净买入60.77亿港元、31.05亿港元，成为最受青睐的对象。贝壳-W、工商银行、招商银行、华润置 地、美团-W等个股也获得了超过 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market experienced its worst weekly performance since November 2025, with the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 6.5% and the Hang Seng Index down by 3.0% due to concerns over global tech stock capital expenditure and changes in tax cost expectations in China [1][2] - The report highlights that despite a significant inflow of southbound funds amounting to 56 billion HKD, the overall trading volume decreased, indicating a prevailing cautious sentiment in the market [1][2] - The report notes that the inflow of funds into ETFs targeting the Hong Kong market accelerated, reaching a total scale of 423.24 billion HKD, with a net inflow of 46.7 billion HKD into Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs [2] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the short-term challenges for the Hong Kong stock market are not yet fully resolved, and ongoing observation of overseas risks and domestic AI developments is necessary [2][4] - It is suggested that if domestic AI developments exceed expectations around the Chinese New Year, the Hong Kong stock market may experience a rally alongside the A-share market [2][4] - The report warns that the high volatility risks for the Hang Seng Technology Index remain, and a defensive strategy is recommended in the short term while monitoring potential offensive opportunities [4]