Wall Street analysts forecast that Moody's (MCO) will report quarterly earnings of $3.42 per share in its upcoming release, pointing to a year-over-year increase of 4.3%. It is anticipated that revenues will amount to $1.85 billion, exhibiting an increase of 1.8% compared to the year-ago quarter.Over the last 30 days, there has been an upward revision of 1.5% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, leading to its current level. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their ...

Summary of S&P Global Q1 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: S&P Global - **Industry**: Financial Services and Market Intelligence Key Financial Highlights - **Total Revenue**: Increased by 8% year-over-year, with subscription products growing by 7% [2] - **Adjusted Diluted EPS**: Grew by 9% [2] - **Margin Expansion**: Achieved 240 basis points year-over-year, with trailing 12-month margins at a record 49.3% [8] - **Capital Allocation**: Returned over $900 million to shareholders through dividends and repurchases in Q1 [2] Strategic Developments - **Divestiture**: Signed an agreement to divest the Ostra joint venture to KKR, expected to close in the second half of 2025 [2] - **Separation of Mobility Division**: Announced intent to spin off the mobility division into a standalone public company, expected to be tax-free and completed within 12 to 18 months [2][9] Market Insights - **Bills Issuance**: Increased by 9% year-over-year in Q1, driven by structured finance and bank loans [3] - **Market Volatility**: Anticipated to suppress issuance volumes, particularly in high-yield markets, with expectations of a double-digit decline in Q2 [6] - **Macroeconomic Conditions**: Noted unpredictable market movements, geopolitical risks, and regulatory fluidity impacting customer behavior and decision-making [3] Business Segment Performance - **Market Intelligence**: Revenue increased by 5%, with strong demand for data analytics and insights products [12] - **Ratings Division**: Revenue grew by 8%, with transaction revenue up by 7% due to heightened refinancing activity [13] - **Commodity Insights**: Revenue increased by 9%, benefiting from strong demand during periods of volatility [14] - **Mobility Division**: Revenue grew by 9%, with dealer revenue up by 11% driven by products like Carfax [15] - **S&P Dow Jones Indices**: Revenue increased by 15%, primarily due to growth in asset-linked fees [16] Customer Engagement and Market Trends - **Increased Engagement**: Noted a significant uptick in platform usage across various divisions, indicating strong customer engagement [3][27] - **Subscription Resilience**: Approximately 75% of total revenue is recurring, providing stability during market fluctuations [5] - **Vendor Consolidation**: Customers are increasingly consolidating vendors, which S&P Global aims to capitalize on [27] Guidance and Outlook - **Revenue Growth Expectations**: Total revenue growth projected in the range of 4% to 6% for 2025, with adjusted margins between 48.5% and 49.5% [16] - **Billed Issuance**: Expected to be flat year-over-year, with potential for opportunistic issuance in the second half of 2025 [22] - **Focus on Innovation**: Continued commitment to innovation in data, benchmarks, and AI to enhance customer value [7] Additional Considerations - **Long-term Growth Confidence**: Despite near-term headwinds, management remains optimistic about long-term growth, particularly in the mobility sector due to trends in EV transition and used car markets [10] - **Cost Management**: Emphasis on managing expenses and maintaining margins amidst market volatility [21] This summary encapsulates the key points from the S&P Global Q1 2025 earnings call, highlighting financial performance, strategic initiatives, market insights, and future outlook.

Key Takeaways Moody's has completed the full acquisition of ICR Chile, after taking a minority stake in 2019. The deal aligns ICR with Moody's Local, enhancing service depth in Chile's domestic credit market. The acquisition will not materially impact Moody's financial results for 2025.Moody's Corporation (MCO) has fully acquired ICR Chile, strengthening its presence in Latin America’s domestic credit markets. The terms of the deal have not been disclosed and the transaction will not have a material impac ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Over the last five years, Moody's has achieved a top-line growth of 8% CAGR, with EPS also growing at 8%. In the last two years, revenue has grown at 14% and EPS at 21%, indicating strong operating leverage [3][4][7]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The analytics business has seen a growth in ARR of 9% to 10% over the last few years, although it has decelerated somewhat in recent quarters [53]. - The KYC segment has experienced high teens ARR growth, driven by recent AI initiatives [59]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Approximately half of Moody's revenues come from outside the United States, with significant investments in domestic markets in regions like Africa and Latin America [12][14]. - The private credit market is currently valued at around $2 trillion, with expectations for growth to $10 trillion or more, presenting substantial opportunities for Moody's [38][39]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - Moody's is focusing on integrating AI into its offerings, enhancing its data and analytics capabilities, and expanding its presence in private credit and KYC solutions [4][60]. - The company aims to maintain its competitive position by leveraging proprietary data and analytics, particularly in the insurance and banking sectors [10][11]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while there are headwinds from elevated treasuries and trade policy uncertainty, there are signs of recovery in the issuance markets [22][23]. - The demand for independent credit assessments is expected to increase, especially during credit cycles, reinforcing the need for Moody's services [48]. Other Important Information - Moody's has made significant acquisitions to enhance its capabilities, including investments in companies like Predicate and Cape, which are expected to drive growth in the insurance sector [72][74]. - The company is exploring new revenue models, including consumption-based pricing for certain content sets, to improve operating leverage [76]. Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the long-term margin targets for MA? - Management indicated a medium-term target for MA margins in the mid-30s, with potential for further upside as the business scales and integrates technology [75]. Question: How does AI impact M&A direction? - The company is considering investments in analytics businesses that align with the future of B2B software and AI, balancing current business needs with future opportunities [78][79]. Question: What opportunities does private credit present? - The growth of private credit into retail markets is seen as a significant opportunity for Moody's, as it will likely require more ratings and assessments [81][82].

财政部回应称，去年四季度以来，中国政府实施一揽子宏观经济调控政策，经济指标回升向好，市场预期和信心稳定，债务中长期可持续性增 强，穆迪作出维持中国主权信用评级稳定的决定，是对中国经济向好前景的正面反映。 当日，美元指数盘中跳水至98.6921，创三周新低。受此影响，在岸、离岸人民币汇率双双上扬，离岸人民币（CNH）一度升破7.17关口，最高触 及7.16155元，创2024年12月以来新高，且自上个月以来，离岸人民币在1个多月内跌幅超2500个基点。市场分析认为，自穆迪下调美国信用评级 后，市场对美国双赤字担忧加深，美联储官员谨慎言论打压市场情绪，预计政策暂停将延续至7月会议，美元开启新一轮跌势。此外，美联储最新 会议纪要释放"鹰派观望"信号，降息预期推迟至9月，美国4月耐用品订单数据不及预期，也导致美元短期获利回吐。 机构方面，高盛外汇策略团队指出，若美元指数持续回落，人民币短期或测试7.15阻力位，但下半年走势仍需观察中美货币政策分化程度。近 期，中国央行通过逆回购、MLF等工具维持流动性宽松，叠加稳增长政策提振市场信心，中美利差预期收窄，部分做空人民币的套利资金加速离 场。中金公司表示，企业结汇需求季节 ...

Market Reaction to Moody's Downgrade - The Nasdaq and other major US indices experienced a decline of over 1% following Moody's downgrade of US debt due to the rising budget deficit, but stocks rebounded quickly, indicating a bullish market sentiment [2][9] - The swift recovery from bad news suggests that if negative news cannot significantly impact stock prices, the market may perform even better in the absence of news [2][9] Historical Precedents and Current Trends - A comparison of the current Nasdaq performance with the late 1990s shows a close correlation, with the Nasdaq rising 74.18% over 617 days, while the 90s example rose 93.42% in the same timeframe, indicating a potential continuation of growth in the tech sector [3][5] - The performance of individual AI companies such as Broadcom, Microsoft, and CoreWeave suggests that the growth phase in the AI sector may just be beginning [5] S&P 500 Index Performance - The S&P 500 Index surged over 19% in just 27 days following improved trade relations between the US and China, which is significantly higher than the historical average return of approximately 10% [6] - Historical data indicates that since 1950, the S&P 500 Index has been higher one year later 100% of the time when it gains more than 19% in 27 trading days, suggesting a strong likelihood of continued upward movement [7]

时差艺术：减持数据公布当日，穆迪将美国评级从AAA砍至AA1，三大机构集体亮红灯。 当全球还在围观美联储加息缩表时，中国悄然完成了一场教科书级的金融突袭——3月单月抛售276亿美元长期美债，直接改写全球债主排 名。这一刀砍得精准：英国被动接盘成为美国第二大债主，而中国持仓降至7654亿，却将"金融核弹"的引信攥得更紧。这绝非普通的外汇 操作，而是踩着特朗普关税大棒的节奏，在美国经济命脉上埋下定时炸弹。 美债神话的崩塌前夜 美债曾是全球资本的"避险天堂"，但特朗普政府亲手砸碎了这块金字招牌。2016年白宫抛出"百年美债"构想时，市场已嗅到赖账气息； 2024年4月"对等关税"政策落地，60国遭殃，美债利率应声飙破5%。中国此时连续7个月减持，堪称神级预判： 黄金储备暴增至7377万盎司，外汇储备中美元占比缩水； "抛长买短"战术：减持长期债规避暴跌风险，增持短期债掌握谈判筹码； 特朗普的"自杀式冒险" 当美国政府忙着用关税大棒敲打全球时，中国早已在棋盘外另起炉灶： 稀土反制：一纸出口管制令，直接掐住美国F-35战机与新能源产业的咽喉； 本币结算突围：与沙特、阿联酋达成800亿能源大单，数字人民币结算石油的传闻甚 ...

金十数据5月19日讯，穆迪评级将美国评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，导致长期国债收益率上升，30年期国债收 益率突破了5%的关键水平。KBC分析师在一份报告中表示，评级下调立即引发了长期收益率的膝跳反 应。不过，他们说，考虑到美国政府的预算状况，下调评级决定并不令人意外。此举"在很大程度上是 象征性的，因为另外两家评级机构此前已经下调了评级。" 穆迪下调美国评级，30年期美国国债收益率升至5%以上 ...

【资讯导读】 ·穆迪将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1 ·美国与欧盟启动贸易谈判旨在减轻特朗普关税政策的影响 ·特朗普在社交平台敦促美联储降息，严厉批评美联储主席鲍威尔行动迟缓，认为尽早降息对经济更有 利。 ·由于共和党内部成本分歧，特朗普税收法案未能通过众议院小组委员会审议，强硬保守派寻求进一步 削减医疗补助。 ·美联储计划未来几年裁员10%，并提供年长员工延迟辞职选项。马斯克此前曾称美联储"人员臃肿得离 谱"。 ·亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克预计2025年可能进行一次降息，今年经济增长或在0.5%至1%之间，但不会 陷入衰退。 ·3月日本增持美国国债至11308亿美元，中国减持至7654亿美元。英国增持至7793亿美元，成为第二大 持有国。海外净流入美国证券和银行现金流总额为2543亿美元。 ·欧洲央行管委温施指出，可能需将利率下调至2%以下以应对增长和通胀的下行风险。 ·特朗普在社交平台敦促美联储降息批评鲍威尔行动迟缓 ·特朗普税收法案未能通过众议院小组委员会审议 【市场资讯】 ·国际信用评级机构穆迪将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，因债务和利率支付比例增加，并将展望 调整为"稳定"。至此，美国被 ...

First Quarter 2025 Financial Results May 1, 2025 Commercial in Confidence Disclaimer This presentation contains statements that are not purely historical but are forward-looking statements, including statements regarding expectations, hopes, intentions or strategies regarding the future. Forward-looking statements are based on Dun & Bradstreet's management's beliefs, as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, them. Forward-looking statements can be identified by words such as "a ...