Summary of Dabeinong (002385.SZ) Earnings Review Company Overview - **Company**: Dabeinong (002385.SZ) - **Industry**: Agriculture in China - **Market Cap**: Rmb17.5 billion / $2.5 billion - **Enterprise Value**: Rmb25.8 billion / $3.6 billion - **Current Price**: Rmb4.23 - **12-Month Price Target**: Rmb8.00 - **Upside Potential**: 89.1% [1][2][6] Key Financial Highlights - **1H25A Net Profit**: Rmb235 million, EPS of Rmb0.055/share, compared to a loss of Rmb0.036/share in 1H24A [1] - **Recurring Net Profit**: Rmb196 million, versus a loss of Rmb244 million in 1H24A [1] - **Revenue Growth**: 4% YoY to Rmb13,559 million in 1H25A [40] - **Gross Profit**: Increased by 12% YoY to Rmb1,915 million [40] - **No Final Dividend Declared**: Consistent with the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates Revisions - **2025E Recurring Earnings**: Revised down by 25% due to lower hog pricing assumptions [2] - **2026E Recurring Earnings**: Revised down by 4% [2] - **2027E Recurring Earnings**: Revised down by 9% [2] Segment Performance - **Feed Operations**: Contributed 56% of total gross profit; gross profit per ton was Rmb417, down 10% YoY [23] - **Hog Farming**: Contributed 29% of total gross profit; total unit cost of market hog decreased by 16% YoY [26] - **Traditional Seeds**: Contributed 9% of total gross profit; driven by higher sales volume and unit gross profit [27] - **Biotech Seeds**: Expected to generate Rmb116 million in revenue in 2025E, with a potential increase to Rmb532 million in 2026E [21] Market Dynamics - **Hog Pricing Outlook**: Expected to improve to Rmb16.5/kg in 2026E, up from Rmb14.8/kg in 1H25A [20] - **Biotech Seed Penetration**: Anticipated to reach 7% in the 2024/25 planting season, lower than previous estimates [21] - **Traditional Seed Market**: Potential market gains in Southwestern regions due to product promotion [22] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - **Operating Cash Flow**: Turned positive in 1H25A, compared to negative Rmb190 million a year ago [34] - **Free Cash Flow**: Negative Rmb363 million in 1H25A, an improvement from negative Rmb593 million in 1H24A [34] - **Net Debt**: Rmb8.14 billion as of end of 1H25A, with net gearing at 93% [35][36] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Based on average near-term and long-term valuations, with a target price implying a P/E of 34x for 2025E [37] - **Key Risks**: Include uncertainty in hog prices, lower-than-expected feed consumption demand, and slower government plans for GM seed commercialization [38] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating on Dabeinong with a target price of Rmb8.00, reflecting strong potential upside based on market positioning and growth in biotech seeds [2][37]

Market Overview - The three major indices opened mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.03%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.17% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3380.21, with a decline of 0.01% and 741 gainers against 1107 losers [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index is at 10246.52, down 0.03%, with 745 gainers and 1668 losers [2] - The ChiNext Index is at 2052.00, up 0.17%, with 357 gainers and 855 losers [2] External Market - The US stock market has paused its rebound, with the S&P 500 down 0.39% to 5940.46, the Nasdaq down 0.38% to 19142.71, and the Dow Jones down 0.27% to 42677.24 [3] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.65%, with mixed performances from major Chinese tech stocks [3] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities highlights rapid progress in the AI industry chain, expecting continued upward trends due to ongoing iterations of AI models and technologies, benefiting software companies with data, customers, and scenarios [4] - Huatai Securities continues to recommend the pet sector, noting strong Q2 performance data and upcoming catalysts such as events and promotions [5] - Guotai Junan Securities reports high growth in feed production, with a 4.2% month-on-month increase and a 9.0% year-on-year increase in April 2025, driven by recovery in livestock and aquaculture [6] - Huatai Securities also recommends real estate stocks with a "three good" logic, focusing on companies with good credit, good cities, and good products, particularly in core cities [7]