2025 年金融市场改革通过基准指引强化市场约束，推动基金从规模导 向转变为利益导向，ETF 追涨现象明显，IPO 节奏偏紧，减持处于低位， 明年关注高景气出口链、周期股和消费反转领域。 十五五，攻坚牛——2026 年度策略 20251217 摘要 中国经济在"十五"期间有望突破美国 GDP 的 70%，工业增加值已达 美国的 1.6 倍，得益于研发投入和工业体系建设，打破"日本化"叙事， 展示高质量发展基础。 美国面临债务加剧和财政赤字挑战，长期经济潜在增长率或仅为 1.2%，政府债务率上升引发对美债安全性的担忧，促使海外投资者减少 美债配置，央行增持黄金。 未来五年，中国投资机会集中在产业升级、科技创新和消费提升领域， 高比例研发投入和完整工业体系为应对外部技术封锁提供坚实基础。 中国将通过优化提升传统产业，培育量子科技、生物制造、氢能与核聚 变、脑机接口等新兴产业，并强化基础设施建设，以适应新的发展阶段 需求。 中国出口份额不断创新高，对美依赖度已降至 10%以下，通过多元化策 略保障出口韧性，贸易顺差持续扩大，竞争力显著增强。 为应对消费疲软，中国将提高居民消费率作为主要目标，优化"两新" 政策，加强 ...

All right, I want to start off with some of the news of this morning. We're seeing oil prices move higher on sanctions on Venezuela and also potential sanctions on Russia. Uh, does this idea of the potential for oil to move higher, at least we're seeing that move this morning, does it change your view of any sectors or the markets in general.>> Sure. Look, I mean, oil prices has so far not contributed to the inflation pressures in the US, which obviously helped the Fed cut rates. This is a key indicator tha ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the increasing scrutiny on the authenticity of R&D expenditures by IPO companies, particularly in the context of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's regulatory measures to ensure compliance with the standards for technology innovation enterprises [1][3][7]. Group 1: Regulatory Focus on R&D Expenditures - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange has intensified its oversight on IPO companies regarding R&D investments, highlighting that inflated R&D figures can lead to severe penalties [1][3]. - There have been instances where IPO companies and intermediaries faced sanctions for providing misleading R&D data, including inflated personnel numbers and non-compliant salary calculations [3][4]. - The exchange has issued guidelines requiring companies to accurately account for R&D expenditures and has called for a thorough review of R&D internal controls [4][5]. Group 2: Specific Regulatory Requirements - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange mandates that sponsoring institutions conduct targeted audits of R&D expenditures, assessing risks associated with inflated reporting [4][5]. - The internal control systems for R&D must align with the actual circumstances of the issuer to ensure accurate accounting of R&D investments [5]. - The exchange emphasizes the need for clear differentiation between R&D activities and other operational activities, focusing on accurate recognition of R&D personnel and expenses [5][6]. Group 3: Importance of Proportional Regulation - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange aims to implement a "strict yet flexible" regulatory approach, considering the severity and duration of violations when determining penalties [7][8]. - For minor infractions, the exchange may adopt a more lenient stance, allowing for self-regulatory measures and encouraging companies to rectify issues without severe penalties [7][8]. - The exchange has indicated that it will provide verbal warnings and reminders to intermediaries regarding the importance of maintaining accurate R&D expenditure records [8].

Group 1 - The core focus is on the strong performance of newly listed companies in the US IPO market, which has significantly outperformed major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, with a weighted average increase of 41% in 2025 [1] - Companies that raised over $1 billion in their IPOs have seen an average surge of 77%, indicating a preference for scale and liquidity among investors [1] - Notable performers include Circle (CRCL.US) with a 324% increase, CoreWeave (CRWV.US) with over 233%, and Bullish (BLSH.US) with an 83% rise since their listings [1] Group 2 - In 2023, companies have raised $32 billion in the US exchanges, marking a strong rebound after market uncertainties caused by tariffs in April [2] - September 2023 was the busiest month for IPOs since 2021, driven by a general market uptrend that encouraged a wave of new issuances [2] Group 3 - Factors contributing to the strong IPO performance include inflows into stock funds, the presence of cornerstone investors, and the initial size and valuation of offerings [6] - The IPO market is expanding beyond just cryptocurrency and AI, with companies from fintech, defense, aerospace, education, and software sectors also going public [6] Group 4 - ETFs focused on IPOs, such as Renaissance IPO ETF and First Trust US Equity Opportunities ETF, have outperformed the S&P 500, with increases of 16% and 37% respectively [7] - Despite the strong performance, the inflows into these ETFs remain below pre-pandemic peaks, indicating a cautious recovery in investor sentiment [7] - The reversal in fund flows for First Trust's FPX in 2025, attracting $70 million after four years of outflows, still falls short of the $145.5 million attracted in the year before the pandemic [7]

Group 1 - 1stdibs (NASDAQ: DIBS) has performed very poorly post-IPO, indicating challenges in its market performance [1] Group 2 - The research firm Goulart's Restaurant Stocks focuses on the U.S. restaurant industry, covering various segments from quick-service to fine dining [2] - The firm employs advanced financial modeling and sector-specific KPIs to uncover hidden value in public equities, particularly in micro and small caps [2] - The founder has a strong academic background with an MBA in Controllership and Accounting Forensics and experience in restaurant operations [2]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has decided to temporarily suspend IPOs, but is implementing a pre-review mechanism for high-quality technology companies, indicating a cautious approach rather than a full opening of the IPO market [1] - The CSRC's actions can be seen as a signal to further support IPOs after encouraging mergers and acquisitions, suggesting a positive market sentiment and potential for a bull market [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3362 points after a day of weak trading and a significant drop in trading volume to approximately 1.2 trillion [3] - There is a noticeable shift in market dynamics, with previously strong sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and digital currencies experiencing declines, while underperforming sectors like humanoid robots saw a rebound [3] Group 3 - Over 4000 stocks in the A-share market declined, with a significant increase in selling pressure as the market showed weak performance, leading to a closing volume exceeding 56 billion [5] - The lack of strong buying support during the market's decline suggests that large funds are not currently inclined to intervene, which could lead to further downward pressure if the market continues to fall [5] Group 4 - The Shanghai Composite Index is at a critical turning point, with the 3330 to 3350 point range being particularly sensitive; if this range is breached, it could lead to more severe declines [6] - Historical patterns suggest that if the index can maintain this range, there may be potential for recovery, although current market conditions make predictions uncertain [6] Group 5 - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.79%, while the ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite Indexes dropped by over 1% [7]