以下文章来源于叶檀财经 ，作者青城桢楠 叶檀财经 . 过去的财经女侠叶檀，现在的檀姐姐，手中无剑，心中有爱。 本文来自微信公众号： 叶檀财经 ，作者：青城桢楠，题图来自：视觉中国 印度是最容易被低估，也最容易被高估的国家。因为，都有足够的理由，无论人口红利、市场前景， 还是地缘因素，都让印度看起来像是中国之后最具发展潜力的国家。 但找到反证也轻而易举。正如剑桥大学经济学家琼·罗宾逊所言：你说的关于印度的任何真相，反过 来都同样成立。 一、美国红利不再，印度怎么 办？ 2025年4月之前，全世界都以为印度将成为中美这盘大棋最受益的国家。 除了股市表现不佳，印度在汇率市场同样遭遇困境。2025年，美元指数整体走弱，强势经济体的汇 率基本表现坚挺。黄金等美元映射商品，更是节节走高。 但印度卢比却逆势下跌，年内兑美元贬值接近3%，对人民币贬值更是超过5%。和股市一样，印度汇 率的表现是主要经济体里面的差生。 印度自己也这么认为。 看印度股市，2025年4月之后，是最先创出新高的。6月22日，印度孟买30指数，最高摸到84000点， 距离历史新高仅一步之遥。 同期，中国股市一片寂静，不少人担心贸易伤害。 龙象之间的交汇 ...

Group 1 - India is perceived as both undervalued and overvalued, with significant potential for development following China due to demographic dividends, market prospects, and geopolitical factors [1] - The Indian stock market reached a peak of 84,000 points on June 22, 2025, but subsequently underperformed, with the Bombay 30 Index down 3.39% year-to-date as of September 8, 2025, lagging behind other markets by nearly 20% [5][8] - The Indian rupee depreciated nearly 3% against the dollar and over 5% against the yuan in 2025, marking it as one of the weakest currencies among major economies [12] Group 2 - A significant decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) was reported, with net FDI dropping 96.5% in the fiscal year 2025, from $10 billion to just $353 million, a historical low [19] - Despite an overall increase in foreign investment totaling $81 billion, the outflow of $49 billion from foreign investors was noted, with a withdrawal rate approaching 20% [21] - Indian companies are increasingly investing abroad, with outbound investments reaching $29 billion in the fiscal year 2025, up from $17 billion in 2024 [23] Group 3 - The U.S. government's changing stance, including potential tariffs of 50% on Indian goods, could reduce India's GDP growth to below 6% [31] - The manufacturing sector in India has been declining, with its GDP share falling to 12.5% in 2024, the lowest since 1967 [64] - The Indian manufacturing industry faces challenges in competitiveness due to high import tariffs on intermediate goods, which inflate local production costs [92] Group 4 - The IT services sector in India is experiencing significant job losses due to the rise of AI, with estimates suggesting that around 200,000 IT jobs were lost in the past year, potentially rising to 300,000 by 2025 [112] - The Indian stock market's IT sector has been the worst performer, reflecting the broader challenges faced by the industry [113] - The relationship between population and productivity in India is shifting, with the potential for a demographic burden rather than a demographic dividend [114]

1 、 《 金价，继续狂飙 》摘要 ■ 在初期因流动性紧张导致黄金短线被动回调后，市场回归"避险逻辑"，推动金价再度上涨。 潜力的真实压力测试 。 4 、 《 黄金价格再创历史新高 》摘要 ■ 以"超硬材料"为例， 2024年9月、12月、2025年2月 三次政策发布即为明显波段上涨窗口。 ■ ■ 宇树科技表示并未参与此次比赛，视频中的G1机器人由 第三方客户购买后自主参赛 ，算法控制等 均由用户自行开发。 ■ 熊友军（北京具身中心）指出："中国已处于全球第一梯队"，但距离规模商业化仍有5~10年。 ■ 4月21日早盘， 黄金价格再度大涨，刷新历史新高 ，显示全球市场在高通胀、美元信用风险和地缘 冲突背景下对避险资产的强烈需求。 ■ 黄金已不再只是防御型资产，而成为主流资金布局的重要方向之一 ，尤其是亚洲央行和全球机构持 续加仓，推动金价节节攀升。 5、《 "出口管制"板块集体攀升 》摘要 ■ 中国在" 关键战略资源与高端材料领域 "逐步强化出口管制策略，以应对中美科技对抗的背景，并 催生出若干产业与资本市场的结构性机会 ，尤其是在"超硬材料、培育钻石、高纯石英、石墨"这四 大细分赛道。 ■ 2024年至今， ...