特朗普搞对等关税，全球经济集体滑坡，特别是印度，曾被美国吹上天的"下一个十年主角"，被一纸关税绊得摔了个正着。 但越南却爆了，这到底是新德里跌倒，胡志明市吃饱，还是美国在暗中调仓、扶一踩一？ 最近，越南公布了三季度GDP，亮瞎很多人的眼睛，过去十年，"中国制造备胎"基本在5-7%区间，这次却飙升8.23%。 第一，出口疯涨 今年第三季度，越南对美出口重新爆发，服装、家具、电子产品，越南几乎成了美国消费者的"隐形供应链"。 在美国消费品货架上，你能看到的"Made in Asia"，越来越多其实是"Made in越南。 第二，制造业变成越南的"压舱石" 2025年Q3，越南制造业产值增速超过10%。在全球制造业普遍萎靡的当下，这是极罕见的逆势飙车。 第三，外资涌入 FDI是越南经济的"核反应堆"，2025年承诺金额大涨45%，三星再扩产10亿美元，苹果供应链新进20家，日企重返电机、机械加工。 越南为什么能爆发？答案是美国帮他们打开了一个"天窗"。 外界都误解了那份"框架性关税协议"。大家以为特朗普对越南平均征20%关税，胡志明市会被打趴。真相完全相反。 因为协议有一句叫： "部分关键产品可获豁免。" 豁免的是 ...

#数据 中国9月单月以人民币计价的实际使用外资金额（FDI，商务部口径）增至6个月最高水平，同比增速转涨，增速达11.2%创半年高位。1-9月FDI规模为5737.5亿元，同比下降10.4%，延续2023年8月以来的累计跌势，但降幅为2024年1月以来最窄。 https://t.co/tBRHzYCv0V ...

Group 1 - India is perceived as both undervalued and overvalued, with significant potential for development following China due to demographic dividends, market prospects, and geopolitical factors [1] - The Indian stock market reached a peak of 84,000 points on June 22, 2025, but subsequently underperformed, with the Bombay 30 Index down 3.39% year-to-date as of September 8, 2025, lagging behind other markets by nearly 20% [5][8] - The Indian rupee depreciated nearly 3% against the dollar and over 5% against the yuan in 2025, marking it as one of the weakest currencies among major economies [12] Group 2 - A significant decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) was reported, with net FDI dropping 96.5% in the fiscal year 2025, from $10 billion to just $353 million, a historical low [19] - Despite an overall increase in foreign investment totaling $81 billion, the outflow of $49 billion from foreign investors was noted, with a withdrawal rate approaching 20% [21] - Indian companies are increasingly investing abroad, with outbound investments reaching $29 billion in the fiscal year 2025, up from $17 billion in 2024 [23] Group 3 - The U.S. government's changing stance, including potential tariffs of 50% on Indian goods, could reduce India's GDP growth to below 6% [31] - The manufacturing sector in India has been declining, with its GDP share falling to 12.5% in 2024, the lowest since 1967 [64] - The Indian manufacturing industry faces challenges in competitiveness due to high import tariffs on intermediate goods, which inflate local production costs [92] Group 4 - The IT services sector in India is experiencing significant job losses due to the rise of AI, with estimates suggesting that around 200,000 IT jobs were lost in the past year, potentially rising to 300,000 by 2025 [112] - The Indian stock market's IT sector has been the worst performer, reflecting the broader challenges faced by the industry [113] - The relationship between population and productivity in India is shifting, with the potential for a demographic burden rather than a demographic dividend [114]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Vietnamese economy, with a real GDP growth target of 8 percent for 2025, supported by increased domestic consumption and investment [7][30]. Core Insights - Vietnam's GDP growth accelerated to 6.9 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent in Q1-2024, driven by stronger domestic consumption and investment [2][14]. - Merchandise exports growth slowed to 10.6 percent in Q1-2025 from 16.8 percent in Q1-2024, influenced by high base effects and potential global demand slowdown [3][15]. - FDI new commitments declined by 9.2 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, while FDI disbursements remained resilient at $4.9 billion, reflecting a 7.1 percent increase year-on-year [3][21]. - Industrial production increased by 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2025, compared to 4.8 percent in March 2024, with significant contributions from apparel, electronics, and machinery [4][17]. - Retail sales surged by 10.8 percent year-on-year, marking the highest growth in nearly two years, supported by a 9.5 percent increase in average monthly income [4][23]. - Inflation rose to 3.1 percent year-on-year in March 2025, driven by food and housing prices, but remains below the State Bank of Vietnam's target of 5 percent for 2025 [5][25]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth - Real GDP growth reached 6.9 percent year-on-year in Q1-2025, up from 5.9 percent in Q1-2024, with consumption and investment growing by 7.4 percent and 7.2 percent respectively [14]. Trade and Investment - Merchandise exports grew by 10.6 percent in Q1-2025, down from 16.8 percent in Q1-2024, while imports increased by 16.9 percent year-on-year [3][15]. - The trade surplus decreased to $3.2 billion in Q1-2025 from $7.7 billion in Q1-2024 [15]. Industrial Production - Industrial production index rose by 8.6 percent year-on-year in March 2025, with the PMI indicating expansion at 50.5 [4][17]. Domestic Consumption - Retail sales of goods and services increased by 10.8 percent year-on-year, supported by rising average monthly income [4][23]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation increased to 3.1 percent year-on-year in March 2025, with the SBV raising the inflation target to 5 percent for 2025 [5][25]. Fiscal Performance - Revenue collection for Q1-2025 reached 36.7 percent of the annual plan, driven by increases in VAT and corporate income tax [6][30].