Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil market has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the origin, but the export data is good, consumption is strong, and there are also the impacts of biodiesel policies. The U.S. soybean harvest is about to start, with high expected yields and a relatively loose global soybean supply, but the situation of China - U.S. trade negotiations needs attention. Rapeseed still has a high - yield expectation. Overall, the oil market is a mix of long and short factors, and further drivers are needed to guide prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9390.00 yuan/ton, a change of +22 yuan or +0.23% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8356.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9739.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.86%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 10.00, a change of +58.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton or +0.35%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 154.00, a change of +40.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.20%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 161.00, a change of +8.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - The C&F prices of U.S. Gulf, U.S. West, and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes for different regions (October shipment) remained unchanged. The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged. The C&F quotes of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseeds (November and January shipments) decreased by 10 dollars/ton and 1 dollar/ton respectively [2] - According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in August was 1.85 million tons [2] - This week, the international and domestic palm oil prices fluctuated downward, with the domestic decline greater than the international one. The price inversion of China's palm oil imports widened. The import CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil for October and November shipments decreased by 7 dollars/ton and 9 dollars/ton respectively, and the South China arrival duty - paid costs decreased by 70 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Externally, the weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather is gradually increasing. In the short term, Sino-US talks have intensified the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. Domestically, the domestic soybean complex has weakened due to Sino-US talks, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month contracts can open up upward space. The domestic rapeseed complex also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation provides high support for the far - month contracts, but short - term sentiment may suppress the market due to the negotiation expectation. The timing of going long depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - For soybean meal, the real - world pressure lies in the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic shifts to far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybeans in China is at a seasonal high, the oil mill crush volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory seasonally. In terms of demand, the physical inventory has increased seasonally, and consumption remains at a rigid - demand level due to high livestock inventories. The expected soybean arrivals are 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, a supply gap is expected after the first quarter of next year [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for soybean meal in the month is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.5% and a historical percentile of 19.8% over 3 years. The price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.4% and a historical percentile of 76.3% over 3 years [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise inventory to prevent inventory losses | M2601 | Sell | 25% | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance on the market to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising meal prices | M2601 | Buy | 50% | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise situation to prevent losses from imported inventory | M2601 | Sell | 50% | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3054 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2814 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3004 | - 18 | - 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2513 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2406 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2540 | - 10 | - 0.39% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1053 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1359 | 0.0324 | 0.46% | [7][9] 3.4 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 240 | 5 | | M05 - 09 | - 190 | 12 | | M09 - 01 | - 50 | - 17 | | RM01 - 05 | 107 | 18 | | RM05 - 09 | - 134 | - 8 | | RM09 - 01 | 27 | - 10 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 20 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 34 | 21 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2516 | - 8 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 3 | - 8 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 504 | 28 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 541 | - 1 | [10] 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4531.2634 | - 29.8378 | - 0.2236 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3992.81 | 19.18 | - 58.48 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 736.7908 | - 1.8538 | 68.0082 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 589.4934 | - 29.8378 | 424.5052 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 154.0428 | 0 | 0.4671 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 779 | 55 | 166 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 870 | 55 | 185 | [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key focus for the external market is the export of new - crop US soybeans to China due to the dry planting weather in the US. For the domestic soybean market, it's about whether the supply - demand gap in the far - month contracts will open up the upside space. The domestic rapeseed market still has long - position value after a short - term pullback due to China - Canada anti - dumping duties [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. For rapeseed meal, although the near - month is under spot pressure, the far - month still has long - position value considering potential supply shortages [5]. - The trading logic of domestic soybean meal is shifting to the far - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point in September. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3160, down 1 (-0.03%); soybean meal 05 is 2860, up 16 (0.56%); soybean meal 09 is 3116, up 3 (0.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2627, up 23 (0.88%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2517, up 12 (0.48%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2667, down 11 (-0.41%) [7]. 4. CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1033.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1865, unchanged (0%) [9]. 5. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spreads between soybean and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, M01 - 05 spread is 300, down 17 [10]. 6. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4884.6258 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and 0.0803 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import cost is 4061.54 yuan/ton, down 16.26 yuan/day and 56.14 yuan/week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 847.4358 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and down 133.8179 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import profit is 126.2342 yuan/ton, up 10.3514 yuan/day and 0.0394 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed for the futures and spot markets is also provided [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing a weak trend; the downside space of the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - term contracts; the rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the relief of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - term contracts under the supply - demand gap, and the export premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the price of the far - term contracts from the cost side [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean meal in the next month is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The outer - market US soybean planting weather is favorable and shows a weak trend; the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system have limited downside space, and the market is pricing the far - term supply - demand gap; the rapeseed system strengthens due to the relief of warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - Bullish factors: The basis has rebounded due to some oil mills' shutdowns, and the downside space for the subsequent spot - futures convergence of the 09 contract is limited. The soybean arrivals are expected to have a gap after December. The near - term rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal due to warehouse receipt issues, and the far - term rapeseed supply has uncertainties leading to accelerated marginal destocking [5][6]. 3.5 Oil Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3072 | 7 | 0.23% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2762 | 11 | 0.4% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3026 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2463 | 24 | 0.98% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2402 | 15 | 0.63% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2745 | 21 | 0.77% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 990.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1868 | 0.0026 | 0.04% | [6] 3.6 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 310 | - 4 | | M05 - 09 | - 264 | 8 | | M09 - 01 | - 46 | - 4 | | RM01 - 05 | 61 | 9 | | RM05 - 09 | - 343 | - 6 | | RM09 - 01 | 282 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2900 | - 30 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 126 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2562 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 162 | - 35 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 338 | - 30 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 281 | - 18 | [10] 3.7 Oil Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4655.5086 | 29.7162 | - 0.0771 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3970.92 | 8.71 | 38.09 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 756.9933 | 2.162 | 12.6856 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 724.9886 | 29.7162 | 136.5096 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 106.2403 | - 25.7061 | 0.5465 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 296 | 86 | 218 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 479 | 104 | 238 | [10]

Market Conditions Futures Market - The main continuous contract of DCE Soybean No. 1 futures fluctuated within a narrow range today, closing at 4117 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 111,267 lots and an open interest of 110,426 lots, a decrease of 10,173 lots [2]. - The closing prices of A2509, A2511, A2601, and A2603 contracts were 4117 yuan/ton, 4101 yuan/ton, 4095 yuan/ton, and 4084 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.22%, 0.22%, 0.07%, and 0.15% respectively [3]. Spot Market - Today's basis of Soybean No. 1 was -97 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to narrow. The total number of registered warehouse receipts for Soybean No. 1 was 13,688 lots, an increase of 286 lots from the previous trading day [5]. Influencing Factors Important Events - The average price of domestic soybeans was 4011 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day, and the spot price of soybeans has fluctuated up and down in recent days. The soybean inventory at major ports was 6.9117 million tons, up 0.81% from the previous day, and the port soybean inventory continued to accumulate [7][9]. Industry News - The decline of the near - month landed duty - paid price of imported soybeans has slowed down, and the price has stabilized with a slight increase. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4755.44 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3909.75 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3762.30 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall profit of enterprise crushing has maintained a stable and rising trend [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and the far - month contract prices are expected to receive marginal upward drivers with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.5%. For rapeseed meal, the range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1669 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2664 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about meal price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Trends - **Core Contradictions**: The external market is strong due to Sino - US talks, the domestic market follows positive spread logic, and the rapeseed sector is strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a fourth - quarter vessel - booking gap, and meal prices will inflect. The cost - end US soybeans have limited downside, and far - month prices may rise [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US talks support the US soybean market, bullish sentiment is strong in far - month contracts due to weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Spot - end supply pressure is reflected in the basis, and the market lacks short - selling pressure due to hedging position transfers [6]. - Near - month arrivals are sufficient (11.5 million tons in July, 11 million tons in August, 10 million tons in September), with a gap after December [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, near - month warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are signs of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks, but the market has already priced in this information [6]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: - Soybean meal futures: M01 closed at 3078, up 24 (0.79%); M05 at 2744, up 20 (0.73%); M09 at 3056, up 27 (0.89%) [7]. - Rapeseed meal futures: RM01 at 2394, up 7 (0.29%); RM05 at 2352, up 12 (0.51%); RM09 at 2722, up 3 (0.11%) [7]. - **CBOT and Exchange Rate**: CBOT yellow soybeans were at 1027.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB was at 7.1865, up 0.006 (0.08%) [10]. - **Price Spreads**: - Soybean meal spreads: M01 - 05 was 334, up 4; M05 - 09 was - 312, down 7; M09 - 01 was - 22, up 3 [11]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 was 42, down 5; RM05 - 09 was - 370, up 9; RM09 - 01 was 328, down 4 [11]. - Spot prices and basis: Soybean meal in Rizhao was 2880, up 30, with a basis of - 176, up 3; rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2655, up 22, with a basis of - 64, down 44 [11]. - Spot and futures spreads: The spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal was 225, up 30; the futures spread was 334, up 24 [11]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: - US Gulf soybean import cost (23%) was 4781.821 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import cost was 3935.15 yuan/ton, up 18.12 [12]. - US Gulf soybean import profit (23%) was - 873.261 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import profit was 129.2523 yuan/ton, up 2.8987 [12]. - Canadian rapeseed import profit: The import - on - paper profit was 305, down 80; the import - spot profit was 300, down 74 [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Different commodities show various import profit, price difference, and market trends, which are affected by factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and production and consumption patterns. Attention should be paid to policy changes and market dynamics for investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Metals - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For non - ferrous metals, understand logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence. Aluminum and zinc should end their reverse spreads, while for tin, with the smooth resumption of overseas and Myanmar mines and low LME inventory, pay attention to the positive spread. Nickel, zinc, copper, and aluminum all have negative import profits [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - term shipments and arrivals are increasing, iron - water production is fluctuating at a high level. Overseas macro has strong short - term disturbances, and the domestic macro is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term opportunities for internal - external spreads, with the core being to profit from the discount of Dalian iron ore futures. In the long run, the global balance sheet is slightly in surplus compared to China's [1] - **Precious Metals**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price of precious metals, causing the internal - external price ratio to decline rapidly. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, while India's Diwali supports gold consumption. The silver spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3] Energy - **SC**: The spot discount on arrival has weakened, and the internal - external spread has also weakened [1] - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external spread maintains a weak pattern and has been fluctuating recently [1] - **LU**: The internal - external spread has widened again, and domestic production in June is relatively high [1] - **PG**: Recently, FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased. The internal - external spread has decreased, especially PG - CP. FEI - MB has changed little, FEI - CP has declined, and CP - MB has increased [1] - **PX**: Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external spread has converged significantly, and the valuation is gradually neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Due to the trade war and sanctions, the internal and external cotton markets have gradually decoupled. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton due to high US tariffs on China. Now, after tariff cuts, Zhengzhou cotton is stronger. Continuously monitor subsequent tariff policy changes [2] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Oilseeds and oils have a high degree of import dependence. The international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports. Focus on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybean No. 1, in the context of a weak supply - demand pattern, it is expected to trade in a range, and the recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [6]. - For soybean No. 2, due to the seasonal supply glut in South America, it is under pressure to move, with a multi - and short - factors intertwined situation and an expected volatile movement [7]. - For soybean meal, given the ample supply, it is expected to trade weakly in a range, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies [8]. - For soybean oil, it is likely to maintain a weakly volatile trend, and the short - term strategy is to stay on the sidelines [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2507 contract fell 1.32% to close at 4117 yuan/ton. In the future, domestic soybeans are expected to trade in a range due to a weak supply - demand balance [6]. - **Soybean No. 2**: The main 2509 contract declined 0.34% to 3559 yuan/ton. The market focuses on US soybean planting weather, and South American supply is seasonally abundant, putting pressure on prices [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2509 contract rose 0.54% to 2968 yuan/ton. With increasing soybean arrivals and rising inventory, it is expected to trade weakly [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2509 contract dropped 1.75% to 7638 yuan/ton. Supply is increasing, and it is expected to trade weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Soybean No. 1 prices fell, soybean meal prices rose, and soybean oil prices declined this week [11][18][24]. - **Spread Changes**: The 9 - 1 spread of soybean meal widened, while that of soybean oil narrowed [30][33]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipt Changes**: The net position of soybean No. 1 futures increased, and warehouse receipts decreased; for soybean meal, both the net position and warehouse receipts decreased; for soybean oil, both the net position and warehouse receipts increased [42][49][56]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Price and Basis Changes**: The spot price of domestic soybeans remained flat, and the basis increased; the spot price of soybean meal fell, and the basis narrowed; the spot price of soybean oil decreased, and the basis remained unchanged [62][70][76]. - **Imported Bean Premium and Cost Changes**: The FOB premiums of US, Argentine, and Brazilian soybeans changed, and the arrival cost of imported soybeans decreased [80][86]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - **Supply - Side Changes**: The expected production of US soybeans in the new year decreased, and inventory decreased; the expected production of Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged, and inventory increased; the expected production of Argentine soybeans remained unchanged, and inventory increased [101][106][111]. - **Planting and Harvesting Progress**: The US soybean planting progress was fast, and the Argentine soybean harvesting progress exceeded 80% [115]. - **Export - Related Changes**: US soybean export inspection volume decreased, and export sales volume increased; Brazilian soybean exports are expected to increase [121][126]. 3.3.2 Domestic Industry - **Inventory Changes**: The soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased, soybean meal inventory increased, and soybean oil inventory increased month - on - month [130][134][138]. - **Oil Mill Operation**: The oil mill operating rate is expected to rise [142]. - **Import and Arrival Volume**: The month - on - month import volume of soybeans in April increased, and the expected arrival volume of soybeans in May increased month - on - month [148][152]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of domestic soybeans decreased, and the gross profit of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market increased [156]. 3.3.3 Substitute Products - **Price Changes**: The prices of palm oil and rapeseed oil rose; the price of rapeseed meal rose, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread decreased; the oil - meal ratio decreased [162][170][175]. - **Spread Changes**: The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil narrowed, and the rapeseed - soybean spread widened [166]. 3.3.4 Transaction Volume - The spot transaction volume of soybean meal and the terminal transaction volume of soybean oil increased [181]. 3.4 Downstream Conditions - **Price and Profit Changes**: The price of live pigs rose, and the price of piglets fell; the breeding profits of live pigs and poultry decreased [186][192]. - **Demand - Side Changes**: The monthly output of feed decreased month - on - month; the inventory of breeding sows and live pigs increased month - on - month; the domestic consumption of Chinese soybeans and soybean oil increased in the 2024/25 year [196][201][205]. 3.5 Options Market Based on the trend of soybean meal, which is expected to trade weakly in a range, one can consider buying at - the - money put options [213].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the import profit and internal - external price differences of various commodities on May 23, 2025, and analyzes the market trends and trading strategies of different industries [1]. - It emphasizes the importance of considering factors such as logistics margins, major importers, and resource dependence in the internal - external arbitrage of non - ferrous metals [1]. - It also points out that different industries are affected by various factors, including trade policies, seasonal patterns, and exchange rate fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products - Cotton: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the internal and external cotton markets are decoupling. Previously, US cotton was stronger than Zhengzhou cotton, but now the situation has reversed. Continuous attention to subsequent tariff policy changes is needed [1]. - Oilseeds and Oils: These commodities have a high import dependence, with smooth trade and logistics. The risks of the international industrial chain are transmitted to domestic terminals through basis contracts, and the focus is on the difference in internal and external supply - demand rhythms [1]. 3.2 Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore have increased, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. Overseas macro factors cause strong short - term disturbances, while the domestic macro situation is relatively stable. The ore price center has declined, and there are few short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - term, the global balance sheet shows a slight surplus compared to China's [1]. 3.3 Energy - SC: The on - shore spot discount has weakened, and the internal - external price difference has also weakened. - FU: In summer, the internal - external price difference maintains a weak pattern, and the internal - external spread of FU09 is compressing. - LU: The previous valuation has been realized, and the internal - external price difference is starting to decline. - PG: The external market shows that FEI and MB have declined, CP has increased, and the oil - gas ratio is oscillating. The internal - external price difference has significantly decreased, and FEI - MOPJ has slightly declined. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East have decreased [1]. 3.4 PX - Domestic PX production has declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has significantly converged, and the valuation is becoming neutral. It is advisable to wait and see [1]. 3.5 Precious Metals - For precious metals, the abnormal movement of the RMB exchange rate has supported the domestic price, causing the internal - external price ratio to quickly decline. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali festival in India, which supports gold consumption, also contribute to the decline of the internal - external price ratio. - The spot discount of silver has widened, and the import window has closed [1]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - Tin: As overseas mines and Burmese mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage. The LME inventory has been continuously low recently. - Zinc: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. 3.7 Exchange Rates - On May 23, 2025, the US dollar index, the Australian dollar against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Brazilian real showed different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and annual periods [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes import profits, internal - external price differences, and trading strategies across multiple industries including agriculture, energy, metals, and precious metals. It also considers the impacts of tariffs, supply - demand, and exchange rates on these factors [1][3]. Group 3: Industry - Specific Summaries Agriculture - **Cotton**: Due to trade wars, sanctions, and tariff policies, the relationship between domestic and foreign cotton markets has changed. After tariff cuts, the strength of Zhengzhou cotton and US cotton has reversed. Continued attention to tariff policy changes is recommended [1]. - **Oils and Oilseeds**: These commodities have a high import dependency. Their international supply - demand balance is transmitted to the domestic market through imports, and the focus should be on the difference in domestic and foreign supply - demand rhythms [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the shipping and arrival of iron ore are increasing, iron - water production is oscillating at a high level. With strong overseas macro - disturbances and relatively stable domestic macro - conditions, the ore price center has declined, and there are fewer short - term internal - external price difference opportunities. In the long - run, the global supply - demand balance is more surplus compared to the Chinese market [1]. Energy - **SC**: The internal - external price relationship is weakening. - **FU**: In summer, the internal - external relationship remains weak, and the internal - external price difference of FU09 is compressing. - **LU**: The external crack spread basis has rebounded, and with the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the internal - external relationship is strengthening. - **PG**: After tariff relaxation, the external price has risen. The internal - external price difference has decreased significantly [1]. - **PX**: Domestic PX operating rates have declined, and there are still some overseas maintenance. As TA restarts, the PX de - stocking rate is expected to increase. The current internal - external price difference has converged significantly, and the valuation is becoming neutral, so it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Metals - **Aluminum**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position to take profit. - **Tin**: As overseas and Myanmar mines resume production smoothly, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities. The LME inventory has been low recently. - **Zinc**: Close the internal - external reverse arbitrage position [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: The RMB exchange rate has an impact on the domestic price, and the internal - external price ratio has dropped rapidly. The end of the domestic consumption peak season and the Diwali - supported gold consumption in India have also contributed to this decline. - **Silver**: The spot discount has widened, and the import window is closed [3].