Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices support the firmness of the oil and fat market, and the prices of the three major oils were volatile yesterday. The data from shipping survey agencies shows that the recent exports of Malaysian palm oil have increased month - on - month, and the international crude oil has risen by about 3%, providing strong support for oil and fat prices [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 9,270.00 yuan/ton, a change of +32 yuan or +0.35% compared with the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,326.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68.00 yuan or +0.82%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,330.00 yuan/ton, a change of +4.00 yuan or +0.04% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,190.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.11%, with a spot basis of P05 - 80.00, a change of -22.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,620.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan/ton or +0.94%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 294.00, a change of +12.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,160.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and a spot basis of OI05 + 830.00, a change of -4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop C&F Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 545 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 553 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 482 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 476 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton [2] Imported Soybean Premium Quotes - The premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 243 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel. The premium of US West Coast soybeans (February shipment) was 228 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel. The premium of Brazilian port soybeans (February shipment) was 160 cents/bushel, with no change [2] C&F Prices of Imported Oils - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (March shipment) was 1,202 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 29 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (May shipment) was 1,137 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,040 US dollars/ton, with no change. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1,020 US dollars/ton, with no change [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core View - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday due to the adjustment of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, which suppressed part of the global oil consumption, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern and putting downward pressure on oil prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8578.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan or 1.94% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2605 contract closed at 7938.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62.00 yuan or 0.78%; the rapeseed oil 2605 contract closed at 8828.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121.00 yuan or 1.35% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8580.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.72%, with a spot basis of P05 + 2.00, an increase of 20.00 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.83%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 392.00, a decrease of 8.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9680.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.72%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 852.00, an increase of 51.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Import Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 521 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 527 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1193 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1126 dollars/ton, an increase of 11 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1050 dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1030 dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 469 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 463 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 446 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton [2] Import Premiums - The import premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import premium of US West Coast soybeans (February shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import premium of Brazilian port soybeans (February shipment) was 172 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel [2] Export Volume - According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15 was 690,642 tons, a 17.53% increase compared to the same period last month [2] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy is "Neutral" [4] Group 6: Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources mainly from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Oilseed Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: December 9, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Wandong (Investment Consulting License Number: Z0022725) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans focus on whether the yield of 53 bushels per acre in the December supply - demand report will continue to be reduced. The US claims 12 million tons of Chinese purchases, but less than 40% has been completed, and the completion date may be postponed. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the US soybean price will fluctuate around the cost - line. The inner - market soybean meal lacks a unilateral driver and will follow the outer - market in the short - term. In the medium - term, the shipping schedule of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and the scale of the state reserve release will determine the supply in the first quarter. [4] - Recently, US soybeans have fallen below key levels, and the inner - market has followed suit with a larger decline due to the news of state reserve release. The profit of soybean purchases has decreased. The scale of the state reserve release is estimated to be between 5 - 6 million tons, and a weekly release of 500,000 tons may continue until the end of February. When trading the profit of US soybean purchases, the supply scale should be used to judge the trend. [4] - Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand. The rapeseed inventory and crushing have been exhausted, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also declining rapidly. However, due to the expected arrival of Australian rapeseed and subsequent imports, the supply is expected to recover, so the rapeseed meal market is weak. Currently in the off - season of aquatic consumption, the demand growth is limited, and the rapeseed meal inventory is expected to rise. [4][5] - The cost of previous soybean purchases supports the near - month contracts, and the outer - market balance sheet valuation range is moving up. However, the current high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China, the smooth planting in Brazil, and the expected South American bumper harvest are suppressing the far - month prices. The supply gap in the far - month is expected to be filled under the background of China - US trade talks. [8][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Forecast | Commodity | Price Range (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal | 2800 - 3300 | 8.5% | 3.1% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2250 - 2750 | 9.8% | 0.9% | [3] | 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | High protein inventory, worried about the decline in meal prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to inventory | M2605 | Sell | 25% | 2850 - 2900 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2605 | Buy | 50% | 2700 - 2750 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs according to the situation | M2605 | Sell | 50% | 2850 - 2950 | [3] | 3. Oilseed Futures Prices | Commodity | Closing Price | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3008 | - 22 | - 0.73% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2763 | - 15 | - 0.54% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 2936 | - 9 | - 0.31% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2397 | - 25 | - 1.03% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2317 | - 25 | - 1.07% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2446 | - 18 | - 0.73% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1093.75 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.0723 | 0.0036 | 0.05% | [9] | 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Price Spreads | Spread | Price | Today's Change | Spread | Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 252 | 37 | RM01 - 05 | 20 | - 7 | | M05 - 09 | - 115 | - 3 | RM05 - 09 | - 69 | 0 | | M09 - 01 | - 100 | - 5 | RM09 - 01 | 49 | 7 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 0 | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | 199 | 12 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2580 | 0 | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 38 | 35 | | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 640 | 20 | Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 436 | - 8 | [10] | 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4716.1059 | - 40.415 | 0.0773 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3763.46 | - 32.42 | - 73.19 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 766.8465 | - 2.2244 | 6.6552 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 1011.6253 | - 40.415 | - 138.5985 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 67.7677 | 0.2112 | - 0.708 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 687 | - 51 | 23 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 913 | - 55 | 13 | [11] |

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is that the external market of US soybeans is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention is paid to whether the ending inventory in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the tariff implementation, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and long-term weakness. [4] - The current focus of rapeseed meal futures trading is that the supply and demand will remain weak in the fourth quarter. After the Chinese government's decision to resume group tours to Canada on November 3rd, there is an additional expectation of negotiations. Considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal remains high, limiting the rebound space. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. [3] 2. Hedging Strategy Table - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] - For feed mills with low regular inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] 3. Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3054, down 9 (-0.29%); soybean meal 05 is 2836, up 7 (0.25%); soybean meal 09 is 2952, up 9 (0.31%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2500, down 27 (-1.07%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2421, down 7 (-0.29%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2494, down 2 (-0.08%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1127.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1232, up 0.0018 (0.03%). [7][10] 4. Price Spreads and Import Costs/Profits - The price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, along with the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [11] - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are presented, including daily and weekly changes. [11] 5. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors include that the Brazilian export premium supports the far-month contract prices from the cost side, the external market strengthens under the background of US soybean procurement, and the pressure on the near-month contracts is relieved during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts. [9] - Bearish factors include that the current near-month supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills remains high, Brazilian planting is progressing smoothly with a high-yield expectation in South America, and the far-month supply gap is filled under the background of China-US negotiations. [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the context of China - US negotiations. With the expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in, the ending inventory remains at around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range moves up slightly. There is limited upward drive due to the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by the high near - month inventory. Buying US soybeans will bring a downward drive for the far - month, but the cost support moves up during the outer - market rebound, so the decline is also limited. The inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations. It shows slightly stronger in the short - term due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, but chasing long is not advisable. The timing of going long after November depends on subsequent warrant changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price prediction for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.2%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2250 - 2750, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about high imports and low prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3] Core Contradictions - Outer - market US soybeans are export - demand - driven. Inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by high near - month inventory, and buying US soybeans will affect far - month prices. Inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations and warrant cancellation [4] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The outer - market strengthens continuously when buying US soybeans. The pressure on the near - month contract is relieved as it enters the warrant cancellation month [5][6] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The current near - month supply shows high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation. The smooth planting in Brazil and the repair of the far - month supply gap under China - US negotiations are negative factors [6][9] Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3021, up 27 (0.9%); soybean meal 05 is 2813, up 14 (0.5%); soybean meal 09 is 2930, up 12 (0.41%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2388, down 13 (- 0.54%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2342, up 7 (0.3%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2432, up 3 (0.12%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1115, up 8 (0.72%); the offshore RMB is 7.122, up 0.0089 (0.13%) [7][10] Price Spreads - For soybean meal, M01 - 05 spread is 208, up 13; M05 - 09 is - 117, up 2; M09 - 01 is - 91, down 15. For rapeseed meal, RM01 - 05 spread is 46, down 20; RM05 - 09 is - 90, up 4; RM09 - 01 is 44, up 16. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3020, up 20; the basis is - 1, down 7. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2450, unchanged; the basis is 62, up 13. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 570, up 20; the futures spread is 633, up 40 [11] Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4727.8317 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import cost is 4062.33 yuan/ton, up 20.17. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 852.6667 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import profit is - 43.7567 yuan/ton, down 15.4341. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 497 yuan/ton, down 92; in the spot market, it is 765 yuan/ton, down 92 [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the background of China - US negotiations. The expectation of Chinese procurement of US soybeans will drive the rebound of US soybeans, but the rebound is limited without actual policies or orders. Brazil's soybean planting progress is improving, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upward space of the inner - market soybean series is limited by high near - month inventory, but there is also support below. The inner - market rapeseed series should focus on China - Canada relations and is affected by supply restoration expectations and soybean meal [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - In the near - month, the high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, the increase in oil mill crushing volume, and the resumption of seasonal inventory accumulation of soybean meal are negative factors. The increase in warehouse receipt pressure and the expectation of China - US and China - Canada negotiations also put downward pressure on the meal market [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.1%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 18.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.2% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to prevent inventory losses [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, down 1 with a 0.03% decline [7]. 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread and Import Cost and Profit - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The import costs and profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, and the import profits of Canadian rapeseed are also given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4430.9578 yuan/ton, up 19.2789 yuan/ton [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The current focus of the meal futures market is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of China-US negotiations. The US government subsidizes farmers with tariff revenues, but the market expects the price to remain in a narrow range at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders are placed. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report are also points of concern. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is limited by high inventories in the near term, and the market is expected to rebound with reduced sensitivity and amplitude. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly influenced by the results of China-Canada negotiations and the supply recovery expectations and soybean meal prices [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - The near - month supply is under pressure as the port and oil mill inventories of imported soybeans in China are high, the oil mill crushing volume is rising, and the soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The rapeseed meal follows the decline of soybean meal but is slightly stronger. The rising warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal also dominates the near - month supply pressure narrative on the market [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.9%. The forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.5% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventories, to prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. - Feed mills with low procurement inventories can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, up 10 (0.34%); soybean meal 05 is 2746, down 8 (-0.29%); soybean meal 09 is 2858, down 10 (-0.35%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2392, up 1 (0.04%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2315, down 13 (-0.56%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2403, down 11 (-0.46%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1007, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1241, unchanged (0%) [7]. 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 168, unchanged; RM01 - 05 is 63, down 38; M05 - 09 is -114, down 6; RM05 - 09 is -86, down 5; M09 - 01 is -54, up 22; RM09 - 01 is 23, up 43. The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2990, unchanged, and the basis is 68, up 60. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2520, down 30, and the basis is 129, up 14. The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 470, up 60, and the futures spread is 531, unchanged [9]. 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4373.7225 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.0402 weekly. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3897.84 yuan/ton, down 2.21 daily and 22.69 weekly. The profit of US Gulf soybean imports (23%) is -544.0825 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 58.5843 weekly. The profit of Brazilian soybean imports is 89.1616 yuan/ton, up 54.7861 daily and 0.8951 weekly. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 972 yuan/ton, up 29 daily and 9 weekly, and the spot profit is 1205 yuan/ton, up 40 daily and 45 weekly [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil market has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the origin, but the export data is good, consumption is strong, and there are also the impacts of biodiesel policies. The U.S. soybean harvest is about to start, with high expected yields and a relatively loose global soybean supply, but the situation of China - U.S. trade negotiations needs attention. Rapeseed still has a high - yield expectation. Overall, the oil market is a mix of long and short factors, and further drivers are needed to guide prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9390.00 yuan/ton, a change of +22 yuan or +0.23% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8356.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9739.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.86%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 10.00, a change of +58.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton or +0.35%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 154.00, a change of +40.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.20%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 161.00, a change of +8.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - The C&F prices of U.S. Gulf, U.S. West, and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes for different regions (October shipment) remained unchanged. The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged. The C&F quotes of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseeds (November and January shipments) decreased by 10 dollars/ton and 1 dollar/ton respectively [2] - According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in August was 1.85 million tons [2] - This week, the international and domestic palm oil prices fluctuated downward, with the domestic decline greater than the international one. The price inversion of China's palm oil imports widened. The import CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil for October and November shipments decreased by 7 dollars/ton and 9 dollars/ton respectively, and the South China arrival duty - paid costs decreased by 70 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Externally, the weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather is gradually increasing. In the short term, Sino-US talks have intensified the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. Domestically, the domestic soybean complex has weakened due to Sino-US talks, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month contracts can open up upward space. The domestic rapeseed complex also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation provides high support for the far - month contracts, but short - term sentiment may suppress the market due to the negotiation expectation. The timing of going long depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - For soybean meal, the real - world pressure lies in the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic shifts to far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybeans in China is at a seasonal high, the oil mill crush volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory seasonally. In terms of demand, the physical inventory has increased seasonally, and consumption remains at a rigid - demand level due to high livestock inventories. The expected soybean arrivals are 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, a supply gap is expected after the first quarter of next year [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for soybean meal in the month is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.5% and a historical percentile of 19.8% over 3 years. The price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.4% and a historical percentile of 76.3% over 3 years [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise inventory to prevent inventory losses | M2601 | Sell | 25% | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance on the market to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising meal prices | M2601 | Buy | 50% | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise situation to prevent losses from imported inventory | M2601 | Sell | 50% | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3054 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2814 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3004 | - 18 | - 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2513 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2406 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2540 | - 10 | - 0.39% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1053 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1359 | 0.0324 | 0.46% | [7][9] 3.4 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 240 | 5 | | M05 - 09 | - 190 | 12 | | M09 - 01 | - 50 | - 17 | | RM01 - 05 | 107 | 18 | | RM05 - 09 | - 134 | - 8 | | RM09 - 01 | 27 | - 10 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 20 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 34 | 21 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2516 | - 8 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 3 | - 8 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 504 | 28 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 541 | - 1 | [10] 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4531.2634 | - 29.8378 | - 0.2236 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3992.81 | 19.18 | - 58.48 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 736.7908 | - 1.8538 | 68.0082 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 589.4934 | - 29.8378 | 424.5052 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 154.0428 | 0 | 0.4671 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 779 | 55 | 166 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 870 | 55 | 185 | [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key focus for the external market is the export of new - crop US soybeans to China due to the dry planting weather in the US. For the domestic soybean market, it's about whether the supply - demand gap in the far - month contracts will open up the upside space. The domestic rapeseed market still has long - position value after a short - term pullback due to China - Canada anti - dumping duties [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. For rapeseed meal, although the near - month is under spot pressure, the far - month still has long - position value considering potential supply shortages [5]. - The trading logic of domestic soybean meal is shifting to the far - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point in September. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3160, down 1 (-0.03%); soybean meal 05 is 2860, up 16 (0.56%); soybean meal 09 is 3116, up 3 (0.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2627, up 23 (0.88%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2517, up 12 (0.48%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2667, down 11 (-0.41%) [7]. 4. CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1033.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1865, unchanged (0%) [9]. 5. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spreads between soybean and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, M01 - 05 spread is 300, down 17 [10]. 6. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4884.6258 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and 0.0803 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import cost is 4061.54 yuan/ton, down 16.26 yuan/day and 56.14 yuan/week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 847.4358 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and down 133.8179 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import profit is 126.2342 yuan/ton, up 10.3514 yuan/day and 0.0394 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed for the futures and spot markets is also provided [11].