Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is that the external market of US soybeans is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention is paid to whether the ending inventory in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the tariff implementation, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and long-term weakness. [4] - The current focus of rapeseed meal futures trading is that the supply and demand will remain weak in the fourth quarter. After the Chinese government's decision to resume group tours to Canada on November 3rd, there is an additional expectation of negotiations. Considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal remains high, limiting the rebound space. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. [3] 2. Hedging Strategy Table - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] - For feed mills with low regular inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] 3. Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3054, down 9 (-0.29%); soybean meal 05 is 2836, up 7 (0.25%); soybean meal 09 is 2952, up 9 (0.31%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2500, down 27 (-1.07%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2421, down 7 (-0.29%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2494, down 2 (-0.08%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1127.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1232, up 0.0018 (0.03%). [7][10] 4. Price Spreads and Import Costs/Profits - The price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, along with the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [11] - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are presented, including daily and weekly changes. [11] 5. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors include that the Brazilian export premium supports the far-month contract prices from the cost side, the external market strengthens under the background of US soybean procurement, and the pressure on the near-month contracts is relieved during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts. [9] - Bearish factors include that the current near-month supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills remains high, Brazilian planting is progressing smoothly with a high-yield expectation in South America, and the far-month supply gap is filled under the background of China-US negotiations. [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Views - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the context of China - US negotiations. With the expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in, the ending inventory remains at around 300 million bushels, and the price oscillation range moves up slightly. There is limited upward drive due to the smooth planting of Brazilian soybeans. The inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by the high near - month inventory. Buying US soybeans will bring a downward drive for the far - month, but the cost support moves up during the outer - market rebound, so the decline is also limited. The inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations. It shows slightly stronger in the short - term due to the approaching of the warrant cancellation month, but chasing long is not advisable. The timing of going long after November depends on subsequent warrant changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price prediction for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.2%. For rapeseed meal, it is 2250 - 2750, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.8% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about high imports and low prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3] Core Contradictions - Outer - market US soybeans are export - demand - driven. Inner - market soybean meal's rebound is limited by high near - month inventory, and buying US soybeans will affect far - month prices. Inner - market rapeseed meal is affected by China - Canada negotiations and warrant cancellation [4] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The outer - market strengthens continuously when buying US soybeans. The pressure on the near - month contract is relieved as it enters the warrant cancellation month [5][6] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - The current near - month supply shows high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, and soybean meal will continue the seasonal inventory accumulation. The smooth planting in Brazil and the repair of the far - month supply gap under China - US negotiations are negative factors [6][9] Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3021, up 27 (0.9%); soybean meal 05 is 2813, up 14 (0.5%); soybean meal 09 is 2930, up 12 (0.41%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2388, down 13 (- 0.54%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2342, up 7 (0.3%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2432, up 3 (0.12%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1115, up 8 (0.72%); the offshore RMB is 7.122, up 0.0089 (0.13%) [7][10] Price Spreads - For soybean meal, M01 - 05 spread is 208, up 13; M05 - 09 is - 117, up 2; M09 - 01 is - 91, down 15. For rapeseed meal, RM01 - 05 spread is 46, down 20; RM05 - 09 is - 90, up 4; RM09 - 01 is 44, up 16. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 3020, up 20; the basis is - 1, down 7. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2450, unchanged; the basis is 62, up 13. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 570, up 20; the futures spread is 633, up 40 [11] Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4727.8317 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import cost is 4062.33 yuan/ton, up 20.17. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 852.6667 yuan/ton, down 41.7099; the Brazilian soybean import profit is - 43.7567 yuan/ton, down 15.4341. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the futures market is 497 yuan/ton, down 92; in the spot market, it is 765 yuan/ton, down 92 [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The outer - market US soybeans are mainly driven by export demand under the background of China - US negotiations. The expectation of Chinese procurement of US soybeans will drive the rebound of US soybeans, but the rebound is limited without actual policies or orders. Brazil's soybean planting progress is improving, and there are no major yield issues for the new crop. The upward space of the inner - market soybean series is limited by high near - month inventory, but there is also support below. The inner - market rapeseed series should focus on China - Canada relations and is affected by supply restoration expectations and soybean meal [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - In the near - month, the high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills, the increase in oil mill crushing volume, and the resumption of seasonal inventory accumulation of soybean meal are negative factors. The increase in warehouse receipt pressure and the expectation of China - US and China - Canada negotiations also put downward pressure on the meal market [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.1%. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 18.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 38.2% [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory, they can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to prevent inventory losses [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short M2601 soybean meal futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of various soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided. For example, the closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, down 1 with a 0.03% decline [7]. 3.4 Bean - Rapeseed Meal Spread and Import Cost and Profit - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The import costs and profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, and the import profits of Canadian rapeseed are also given. For example, the import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4430.9578 yuan/ton, up 19.2789 yuan/ton [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The current focus of the meal futures market is on the export demand of US soybeans under the context of China-US negotiations. The US government subsidizes farmers with tariff revenues, but the market expects the price to remain in a narrow range at the bottom until actual Chinese purchase orders are placed. The suspension of the US Department of Agriculture and the October USDA report are also points of concern. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is improving, and there are no major issues with the new crop. The upside of the domestic soybean complex is limited by high inventories in the near term, and the market is expected to rebound with reduced sensitivity and amplitude. The domestic rapeseed complex is mainly influenced by the results of China-Canada negotiations and the supply recovery expectations and soybean meal prices [4]. - There is still a bullish sentiment for the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side [5]. - The near - month supply is under pressure as the port and oil mill inventories of imported soybeans in China are high, the oil mill crushing volume is rising, and the soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The rapeseed meal follows the decline of soybean meal but is slightly stronger. The rising warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal also dominates the near - month supply pressure narrative on the market [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 13.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.9%. The forecast for rapeseed meal is 2350 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.5% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventories, to prevent inventory losses, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3300 - 3400 with a 25% hedging ratio [3]. - Feed mills with low procurement inventories can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) at 3100 - 3200 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 2932, up 10 (0.34%); soybean meal 05 is 2746, down 8 (-0.29%); soybean meal 09 is 2858, down 10 (-0.35%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2392, up 1 (0.04%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2315, down 13 (-0.56%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2403, down 11 (-0.46%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1007, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1241, unchanged (0%) [7]. 4. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 168, unchanged; RM01 - 05 is 63, down 38; M05 - 09 is -114, down 6; RM05 - 09 is -86, down 5; M09 - 01 is -54, up 22; RM09 - 01 is 23, up 43. The soybean meal spot price in Rizhao is 2990, unchanged, and the basis is 68, up 60. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian is 2520, down 30, and the basis is 129, up 14. The soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 470, up 60, and the futures spread is 531, unchanged [9]. 5. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4373.7225 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 0.0402 weekly. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3897.84 yuan/ton, down 2.21 daily and 22.69 weekly. The profit of US Gulf soybean imports (23%) is -544.0825 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 58.5843 weekly. The profit of Brazilian soybean imports is 89.1616 yuan/ton, up 54.7861 daily and 0.8951 weekly. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 972 yuan/ton, up 29 daily and 9 weekly, and the spot profit is 1205 yuan/ton, up 40 daily and 45 weekly [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil market has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the origin, but the export data is good, consumption is strong, and there are also the impacts of biodiesel policies. The U.S. soybean harvest is about to start, with high expected yields and a relatively loose global soybean supply, but the situation of China - U.S. trade negotiations needs attention. Rapeseed still has a high - yield expectation. Overall, the oil market is a mix of long and short factors, and further drivers are needed to guide prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9390.00 yuan/ton, a change of +22 yuan or +0.23% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8356.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9739.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.86%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 10.00, a change of +58.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton or +0.35%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 154.00, a change of +40.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.20%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 161.00, a change of +8.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - The C&F prices of U.S. Gulf, U.S. West, and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes for different regions (October shipment) remained unchanged. The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged. The C&F quotes of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseeds (November and January shipments) decreased by 10 dollars/ton and 1 dollar/ton respectively [2] - According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in August was 1.85 million tons [2] - This week, the international and domestic palm oil prices fluctuated downward, with the domestic decline greater than the international one. The price inversion of China's palm oil imports widened. The import CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil for October and November shipments decreased by 7 dollars/ton and 9 dollars/ton respectively, and the South China arrival duty - paid costs decreased by 70 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Externally, the weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather is gradually increasing. In the short term, Sino-US talks have intensified the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. Domestically, the domestic soybean complex has weakened due to Sino-US talks, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month contracts can open up upward space. The domestic rapeseed complex also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation provides high support for the far - month contracts, but short - term sentiment may suppress the market due to the negotiation expectation. The timing of going long depends on subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - For soybean meal, the real - world pressure lies in the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic shifts to far - month contracts, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybeans in China is at a seasonal high, the oil mill crush volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues to accumulate inventory seasonally. In terms of demand, the physical inventory has increased seasonally, and consumption remains at a rigid - demand level due to high livestock inventories. The expected soybean arrivals are 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, a supply gap is expected after the first quarter of next year [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for soybean meal in the month is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.5% and a historical percentile of 19.8% over 3 years. The price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.4% and a historical percentile of 76.3% over 3 years [3]. 3.2 Oilseed Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise inventory to prevent inventory losses | M2601 | Sell | 25% | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance on the market to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to rising meal prices | M2601 | Buy | 50% | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs according to enterprise situation to prevent losses from imported inventory | M2601 | Sell | 50% | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Oilseed Futures Prices | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3054 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2814 | 0 | 0% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3004 | - 18 | - 0.6% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2513 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2406 | 0 | 0% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2540 | - 10 | - 0.39% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 1053 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1359 | 0.0324 | 0.46% | [7][9] 3.4 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 240 | 5 | | M05 - 09 | - 190 | 12 | | M09 - 01 | - 50 | - 17 | | RM01 - 05 | 107 | 18 | | RM05 - 09 | - 134 | - 8 | | RM09 - 01 | 27 | - 10 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 3020 | 20 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 34 | 21 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2516 | - 8 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | 3 | - 8 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 504 | 28 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 541 | - 1 | [10] 3.5 Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4531.2634 | - 29.8378 | - 0.2236 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3992.81 | 19.18 | - 58.48 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 736.7908 | - 1.8538 | 68.0082 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 589.4934 | - 29.8378 | 424.5052 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 154.0428 | 0 | 0.4671 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 779 | 55 | 166 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 870 | 55 | 185 | [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The key focus for the external market is the export of new - crop US soybeans to China due to the dry planting weather in the US. For the domestic soybean market, it's about whether the supply - demand gap in the far - month contracts will open up the upside space. The domestic rapeseed market still has long - position value after a short - term pullback due to China - Canada anti - dumping duties [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month contracts due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices from the cost side. For rapeseed meal, although the near - month is under spot pressure, the far - month still has long - position value considering potential supply shortages [5]. - The trading logic of domestic soybean meal is shifting to the far - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point in September. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oilseed Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. For rapeseed meal, the price range is 2450 - 2750, with a volatility of 12.7% and a historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 2. Oilseed Hedging Strategy - Traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low prices can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3. Oilseed Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3160, down 1 (-0.03%); soybean meal 05 is 2860, up 16 (0.56%); soybean meal 09 is 3116, up 3 (0.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2627, up 23 (0.88%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2517, up 12 (0.48%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2667, down 11 (-0.41%) [7]. 4. CBOT and Exchange Rate - The price of CBOT yellow soybeans is 1033.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1865, unchanged (0%) [9]. 5. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - The spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as the spot prices and basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian, and the spreads between soybean and rapeseed meal are provided. For example, M01 - 05 spread is 300, down 17 [10]. 6. Oilseed Import Costs and Crushing Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4884.6258 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and 0.0803 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import cost is 4061.54 yuan/ton, down 16.26 yuan/day and 56.14 yuan/week. The import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 847.4358 yuan/ton, up 10.1611 yuan/day and down 133.8179 yuan/week. The Brazilian soybean import profit is 126.2342 yuan/ton, up 10.3514 yuan/day and 0.0394 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed for the futures and spot markets is also provided [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing a weak trend; the downside space of the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - term contracts; the rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the relief of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - term contracts under the supply - demand gap, and the export premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the price of the far - term contracts from the cost side [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean meal in the next month is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The outer - market US soybean planting weather is favorable and shows a weak trend; the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system have limited downside space, and the market is pricing the far - term supply - demand gap; the rapeseed system strengthens due to the relief of warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - Bullish factors: The basis has rebounded due to some oil mills' shutdowns, and the downside space for the subsequent spot - futures convergence of the 09 contract is limited. The soybean arrivals are expected to have a gap after December. The near - term rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal due to warehouse receipt issues, and the far - term rapeseed supply has uncertainties leading to accelerated marginal destocking [5][6]. 3.5 Oil Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3072 | 7 | 0.23% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2762 | 11 | 0.4% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3026 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2463 | 24 | 0.98% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2402 | 15 | 0.63% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2745 | 21 | 0.77% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 990.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1868 | 0.0026 | 0.04% | [6] 3.6 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 310 | - 4 | | M05 - 09 | - 264 | 8 | | M09 - 01 | - 46 | - 4 | | RM01 - 05 | 61 | 9 | | RM05 - 09 | - 343 | - 6 | | RM09 - 01 | 282 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2900 | - 30 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 126 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2562 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 162 | - 35 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 338 | - 30 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 281 | - 18 | [10] 3.7 Oil Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4655.5086 | 29.7162 | - 0.0771 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3970.92 | 8.71 | 38.09 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 756.9933 | 2.162 | 12.6856 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 724.9886 | 29.7162 | 136.5096 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 106.2403 | - 25.7061 | 0.5465 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 296 | 86 | 218 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 479 | 104 | 238 | [10]

Market Conditions Futures Market - The main continuous contract of DCE Soybean No. 1 futures fluctuated within a narrow range today, closing at 4117 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 111,267 lots and an open interest of 110,426 lots, a decrease of 10,173 lots [2]. - The closing prices of A2509, A2511, A2601, and A2603 contracts were 4117 yuan/ton, 4101 yuan/ton, 4095 yuan/ton, and 4084 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.22%, 0.22%, 0.07%, and 0.15% respectively [3]. Spot Market - Today's basis of Soybean No. 1 was -97 yuan/ton, and the basis continued to narrow. The total number of registered warehouse receipts for Soybean No. 1 was 13,688 lots, an increase of 286 lots from the previous trading day [5]. Influencing Factors Important Events - The average price of domestic soybeans was 4011 yuan/ton, up 0.22% from the previous day, and the spot price of soybeans has fluctuated up and down in recent days. The soybean inventory at major ports was 6.9117 million tons, up 0.81% from the previous day, and the port soybean inventory continued to accumulate [7][9]. Industry News - The decline of the near - month landed duty - paid price of imported soybeans has slowed down, and the price has stabilized with a slight increase. The near - month landed duty - paid price of US Gulf soybeans was 4755.44 yuan/ton, that of Brazilian soybeans was 3909.75 yuan/ton, and that of Argentine soybeans was 3762.30 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall profit of enterprise crushing has maintained a stable and rising trend [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The external market strengthened under the expectation of Sino-US talks, and the domestic market followed the positive spread logic. The rapeseed sector was relatively strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is still a gap in fourth - quarter vessel bookings, and the overall meal prices will reach an inflection point this year. From a valuation perspective, the downside space of US soybeans at the cost end is limited, and the far - month contract prices are expected to receive marginal upward drivers with the expected resilience of Brazilian premiums [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.5%. For rapeseed meal, the range is 2450 - 2750, with a current volatility of 0.1669 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.2664 [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - For traders with high protein inventory worried about meal price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits [3]. - Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures (M2509) at 2850 - 3000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs [3]. - Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal selling prices can short soybean meal futures (M2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Market Trends - **Core Contradictions**: The external market is strong due to Sino - US talks, the domestic market follows positive spread logic, and the rapeseed sector is strong due to short - term supply - demand mismatch. There is a fourth - quarter vessel - booking gap, and meal prices will inflect. The cost - end US soybeans have limited downside, and far - month prices may rise [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US talks support the US soybean market, bullish sentiment is strong in far - month contracts due to weather speculation, and Brazilian export premiums support far - month contract prices [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: - Spot - end supply pressure is reflected in the basis, and the market lacks short - selling pressure due to hedging position transfers [6]. - Near - month arrivals are sufficient (11.5 million tons in July, 11 million tons in August, 10 million tons in September), with a gap after December [6]. - Rapeseed meal inventory is increasing slightly, near - month warehouse receipt pressure is easing, and there are signs of Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian talks, but the market has already priced in this information [6]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: - Soybean meal futures: M01 closed at 3078, up 24 (0.79%); M05 at 2744, up 20 (0.73%); M09 at 3056, up 27 (0.89%) [7]. - Rapeseed meal futures: RM01 at 2394, up 7 (0.29%); RM05 at 2352, up 12 (0.51%); RM09 at 2722, up 3 (0.11%) [7]. - **CBOT and Exchange Rate**: CBOT yellow soybeans were at 1027.25, unchanged (0%), and the offshore RMB was at 7.1865, up 0.006 (0.08%) [10]. - **Price Spreads**: - Soybean meal spreads: M01 - 05 was 334, up 4; M05 - 09 was - 312, down 7; M09 - 01 was - 22, up 3 [11]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 was 42, down 5; RM05 - 09 was - 370, up 9; RM09 - 01 was 328, down 4 [11]. - Spot prices and basis: Soybean meal in Rizhao was 2880, up 30, with a basis of - 176, up 3; rapeseed meal in Fujian was 2655, up 22, with a basis of - 64, down 44 [11]. - Spot and futures spreads: The spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal was 225, up 30; the futures spread was 334, up 24 [11]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: - US Gulf soybean import cost (23%) was 4781.821 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import cost was 3935.15 yuan/ton, up 18.12 [12]. - US Gulf soybean import profit (23%) was - 873.261 yuan/ton, up 12.1422; Brazilian soybean import profit was 129.2523 yuan/ton, up 2.8987 [12]. - Canadian rapeseed import profit: The import - on - paper profit was 305, down 80; the import - spot profit was 300, down 74 [12].