证券研究报告 中航证券研究所发布 投资评级 增持 维持评级 行业走势图 20% 100/ -10% -20% 2025年07月12日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 社会服务行业·周观点 暑期档升温在即,内容供给与政策刺激共振修复 多地发放电影消费券,文旅融合创新消费场。7月9日至10日,浙江、 湖北、广西三地相继启动电影消费券发放计划,构建地方版"观影 +消费"补贴体系。其中浙江省以3,680万元发放总额创历史新高, 覆盖2025年暑期至2026年春节档,设置20/40/60元三档满减优惠, 并创新性推出与文旅资源联动的观影套餐,涵盖全省60余家景区的 门票减免、66元餐饮套餐等多重权益。广西则推出"购票返券+美 食联动"等多种组合玩法,覆盖近300家影院。我们认为,电影消费 券正在从"短期补贴"向"场景融合"演进,有望推动影院客流恢 复与产业链多元增收。 类型片布局丰富,国产动画与现实题材表现亮眼。截至目前,2025 年暑期档已定档影片超60部,国产影片类型多元化趋势明显。主旋 律大片《东极岛》《731》《南京照相馆》聚焦抗战胜利80周年纪念 主题,瞄准核心观影人群;现实题材《长安的荔枝》与悬疑片《恶 ...

Core Insights - The animated film "Ne Zha" has achieved significant box office success, becoming the highest-grossing film in Chinese history with a domestic box office exceeding 154 billion yuan and a global total surpassing 159 billion yuan [1][3] - The film has set multiple records, including the highest number of viewers in Chinese cinema history, ranking fifth in global box office, and being the top animated film worldwide [3] - The film's release has contributed to a growing domestic film market, with the first half of 2025 seeing a box office of 292.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.91% [5] Industry Trends - The summer film season is heating up, with 101 films scheduled for release, including 36 dramas and 20 animated films, indicating a diverse offering for audiences [5][6] - Upcoming films include historical dramas and popular adaptations, which are expected to attract significant viewership [6] - The domestic film market continues to thrive, with 25 films surpassing 100 million yuan in box office, of which 16 are domestic productions [5]

暑期档前战已经彻底打响，不过从细节来看，今年暑期档有些特殊。 从往年暑期档来看，正值娱乐商业大片发挥价值的时刻，尤其是作为暑期档这种强娱乐、强爆米花的属性，商业片支撑市场是常规的商业逻辑。然而今年 有所不同，或许是恰逢抗战胜利80周年的重大节点，今年暑期档的种子选手，恰好都是抗战题材。 今年暑期档有所不同 作为暑期档来说，它的特点在于周期长空间大，能够包容太多的种子项目，同时类型更加多元，尤其是配合着学生的放假，整体的类型方向更接近合家 欢。但从近年市场表现来看，市场并未被类型所局限，各种类型的影片接踵而至，均取得了优异的成绩。 纵观近年暑期档市场表现，2017年《战狼2》横空出世；2018年《我不是药神》、《西虹市首富》双雄称霸；《哪吒》制霸2019年暑期档；2020年的《八 佰》成为影院开门后的救世主；2022年沈腾开启救市模式，拿出30亿+《独行月球》；2023年百花齐放，最终冠军被《孤注一掷》斩获；2023年沈腾再度 奉献《抓娃娃》。 作为整个暑期档的最巅峰，2023年是绕不开的话题，陈思诚《消失的她》、王宝强《八角笼中》、大鹏《热烈》、乌尔善《封神》、国漫动画《长安三万 里》；申奥《孤注一掷》，这一 ...

Group 1 - The summer film season of 2025 is approaching, with films entering a concentrated scheduling period, and the market is expected to improve marginally due to quality supply [1][2][3] - The summer season is one of the most important periods for films, lasting from June to August, and historically contributes significantly to annual box office revenue, accounting for 28% to 34% of total box office in the past three years [1][2] - As of June 10, 2025, a total of 69 films have been scheduled for release, indicating room for growth compared to previous years, with notable films set to release in June, July, and August [2] Group 2 - Current market expectations are low, but there is optimism for marginal improvement in the overall market driven by supply, despite a decline in market heat since Q2 due to a lack of major releases [3] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a surge in viewership driven by "Nezha 2," but the absence of major films in Q2 has led to decreased market enthusiasm [3]

从目前已定档影片和一些已经锁定暑期档的影片来看，2025年暑期档票房上限还是相对较高的，档期内几部头部作品《酱园弄·悬案》《731》《东极岛》 中，前者为过去两年暑期档表现都很好的悬疑犯罪题材，后两者为战争题材，创作视角相较过往历史战争片也有所创新，若口碑表现稳定，票房是值得期 待的。 当然，今年暑期档能否成为电影市场走出低迷的转折点，也要看《长安的荔枝》《聊斋：兰若寺》《浪浪山小妖怪》《恶意》等国产中等体量影片以及 《新·驯龙高手》《侏罗纪世界：重生》等好莱坞经典IP的发挥。 2024年，暑期档失意的一个重要原因在于头部票房影片数量与中等体量票房影片数量的双线失守。2025年暑期档，国产中等体量影片和好莱坞经典IP虽然 数量优势有限，但其中国产中等体量影片都颇具创新精神，热门好莱坞经典IP也仍存在稀缺性，这或许会成为破局希望。 "三巨头"浮出水面 随着端午档的结束与《酱园弄·悬案》的定档，2025年暑期档逐渐热闹了起来。 目前，暑期档已定档的影片中灯塔与猫眼专业版双平台想看人数超过10万的影片有四部，其中包含两部国产电影《酱园弄·悬案》《731》，单平台想看过 人数超过10万的为《长安的荔枝》。 2025年 ...

战争片《731》与《坪石先生》分别从侵华日军暴行与知识分子命运切入，前者通过姜武饰演的小人物 呈现历史血痕，后者借甘小二的镜头聚焦战时文化坚守。 喜剧板块则呈现类型融合趋势。《长安的荔枝》为大鹏自导自演的古装喜剧新作，《分手清单》是田羽 生将爱情与喜剧熔于一炉的续作。 进口影片在2025年暑期档以10余部佳作形成有力补充，进口片主打经典IP。5月30日上映的《碟中谍8： 最终清算》成为档期开篇之作。 【深圳商报讯】（记者祁琦）2025年暑期档（6月1日至8月31日）开启大幕，目前已有50余部风格迥异 的影片定档，满足不同观众的观影需求。国产影片凭借多元类型占据主力，进口大片则以经典IP强势回 归，共同构建起影坛盛夏的多元生态。 国产片在2025年暑期档以剧情片为核心，衍生出多种类型融合的佳作。爱情片方面，《恋曲尘封》以蒋 雯丽与黄轩诠释的一段"错位"的初恋，奏响了尘封的恋曲；家庭片《好好说再见》讲述身患绝症的应诺 在女儿与父亲的陪伴下，从容地走完人生最后一程的故事。 陈可辛执导的《酱园弄·悬案》堪称暑期档重头戏，该片是系列电影《酱园弄》的上部，改编自民国四 大奇案之一的酱园弄杀夫案，章子怡携手王传君、易烊千玺 ...

Group 1 - The total box office for the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival period reached 445 million yuan, showing a significant increase from 383 million yuan in the previous year [1][2] - The top three films during the Dragon Boat Festival were "Mission: Impossible 8: Final Reckoning" with 222 million yuan, "Time Traveler" with 76.37 million yuan, and "Doraemon: Nobita's Painting Adventure" with 66.91 million yuan [2][3] - The Dragon Boat Festival coincided with the "June 1" Children's Day, leading to a high proportion of family audiences, marking the highest multi-viewing ratio since 2016 [3] Group 2 - The 2025 summer film season has officially started, with 55 films scheduled for release, featuring a rich variety of domestic films primarily in comedy, fantasy, and animation genres [4] - Anticipated films include the war historical film "731," the adaptation of Ma Boyong's novel "Lychee of Chang'an," and the animated series derivative "Little Monsters of Langlang Mountain" [4] - Companies involved in the production of these films include Maoyan Entertainment and Wanda Pictures, indicating strong industry participation in the upcoming summer season [4]

截至2025年5月21日14点，中国电影（600977）年度票房268.29亿元。其中，现象级动画电影《哪吒之魔童闹海》（简称《哪吒2》）凭 借超强市场号召力，以超154亿元的票房成绩占据年度票房总量的57%，成为支撑大盘的核心力量。除《哪吒2》一骑绝尘外，春节档上 映的《唐探1900》斩获36.12亿元票房，《封神第二部：战火西岐》以12.39亿元紧随其后。 在电影行业的版图上，电影节与电影市场大盘的表现，常常像是两条看似平行却又紧密关联的轨迹。一边是戛纳电影节如火如荼地进 行，紧接着6月的上海国际电影节、7月的First青年电影展也备受瞩目，电影人们在这些光影盛会中交流、展示作品，闪耀着艺术的光 芒；另一边，电影市场的大盘却时常陷入低迷，2025年的5月，除周末和节假日，日均票房在2000万元上下徘徊，新片老片仿佛都被一 层"无人问津"的阴霾笼罩。这种强烈的反差，不禁让人对即将到来的暑期档充满了疑问：大盘能热起来吗？ 春节档后的电影 至今没有一部突破5亿元 证明电影还活着 与国内电影市场的遇冷形成鲜明对比的是，各大电影节的火热氛围。 然而春节档的热闹过后，市场热度逐渐消退，再未出现一部票房突破10亿元的新 ...

Group 1 - Domestic box office reached 26.8 billion yuan as of May 18, with six of the top ten films coming from the Spring Festival period, indicating a weak performance post-Spring Festival [1] - The upcoming summer and National Day holidays face increased market pressure, but there are expectations for a recovery in performance with several high-potential films set to release [1][2] - A total of 15 films are anticipated to achieve box office revenues of 1 billion yuan or more in the second half of the year, covering various genres including history, war, suspense, fantasy, animation, and period dramas [1] Group 2 - "Liao Zhai: Lan Ruo Si" is backed by four listed companies and produced by a well-established animation studio, which has previously released successful films [1][2] - The animation industry is seeing a shift with companies like Pursuit Animation planning to increase their output from one film per year to two by 2026, reflecting growing market demand [2] - The number of film registrations decreased in 2025, with only 449 films registered in the first quarter, indicating potential content supply shortages in the near future [3] Group 3 - Film companies are increasingly focusing on nurturing young talent in directing and screenwriting to diversify the market and stimulate innovation [3] - There is a pressing need for the film industry to develop a more industrialized production system and reduce costs while exploring opportunities in derivative markets to expand revenue [3]