Core Viewpoint - The 23rd China International Wine Expo was successfully held from October 17 to 19, showcasing a variety of Qingdao Beer products and new offerings, emphasizing a health-conscious approach to beer consumption [1] Product Highlights - Qingdao Beer introduced key products aligned with modern consumer trends, particularly highlighting "Qingdao Beer Light Dry," which focuses on low calories, low sugar, and high quality to cater to health-conscious consumers [2] - The "Qingdao Beer Light Dry" contains only 29 calories per 100ml and has a sugar content as low as 0.1g, promoting a lighter drinking experience [4] - The 0.0% alcohol white beer from Qingdao Beer won a gold medal at the 2025 Beer World Cup, utilizing advanced vacuum distillation technology to maintain the original flavor while reducing alcohol content to less than 0.05% [6] Awards and Recognition - Qingdao Beer showcased a full array of products at the expo, including award-winning items such as classic 1903, pure draft, white beer, and various high-end specialty beers, all of which have received gold medals in domestic and international competitions [10] Consumer Engagement - The expo featured interactive activities that combined "wine experience" with "fun interaction," enhancing audience participation and adding joy to consumers' quality of life [12]

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer Museum achieved a total visitor count of over 15 million since its opening, generating at least 700 million yuan in ticket revenue, despite its annual revenue being negligible compared to the main business of Qingdao Beer [1][2] - The beer industry is facing a downturn, with Qingdao Beer reporting a revenue decline of 5.3% in 2024, totaling 32.138 billion yuan, while net profit increased by only 1.81% [4][5] - The company has been diversifying into non-core areas such as cultural IPs and high-end products, which do not directly contribute to beer sales, as a response to the stagnant beer market [3][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, Qingdao Beer’s revenue decreased by 5.3% compared to the previous year, marking a rare occurrence in its nearly 30-year history [4] - The company’s net profit for 2024 was 4.345 billion yuan, showing a modest increase of 1.81% [4] - Revenue from various regions, including Shandong and South China, also saw declines, with some areas experiencing drops as high as 24.2% [4] Market Trends - The beer industry has been in decline since 2017, with production levels dropping from a peak of 44.015 million kiloliters in 2017 to around 35 million kiloliters in recent years [6] - Capital market predictions for Qingdao Beer have been pessimistic, with forecasts for revenue and net profit being downgraded by Citibank [5] - The overall beer market is characterized by intense competition and a lack of differentiation among brands, leading to a focus on channel capabilities rather than product attributes [14][15] Strategic Initiatives - Qingdao Beer has launched several high-end products, including "One World Legend," priced comparably to premium liquors, as part of its strategy to target the high-end market [9][10] - The company is also investing in cultural initiatives and experiences, such as the Qingdao Beer Museum, to enhance brand visibility and cultural significance [1][13] - Despite the challenges, Qingdao Beer continues to explore diverse business avenues to maintain engagement with consumers and strengthen its market position [7][17]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer [1][6]. Core Views - Qingdao Beer, established in 1903, is a leading domestic beer producer with a strong brand value of 264.675 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the top beer brand in China for 21 consecutive years [5][9]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development and has seen a stable beer demand, with a projected revenue growth driven by cost advantages from raw material price declines [5][21]. - The report forecasts steady revenue growth and profit release, with expected net profits of 4.8 billion, 5.1 billion, and 5.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 6%, and 6% [5][47]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Brand and Management - Qingdao Beer has a stable management structure and has undergone leadership changes that are expected to drive growth [9][13]. - The company has 57 wholly-owned and controlled breweries and exports to 120 countries, focusing on brand optimization and market expansion [5][9]. Section 2: Market Trends and Cost Advantages - The beer market in China is stabilizing, with production levels expected to remain between 35-36 million kiloliters from 2021 to 2024 [5][21]. - The average price of beer in the industry has increased by 13.3% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a trend towards premiumization [21][23]. - Raw material costs have generally declined since 2022, providing a cost advantage for beer companies [25][27]. Section 3: Product Structure and Efficiency - Qingdao Beer is implementing a "1+1" brand strategy, focusing on its main brand and a secondary brand to enhance market presence [29]. - The company has seen a significant increase in the sales of mid-to-high-end products, which accounted for 41.8% of total sales in 2024, up 6.6 percentage points from 2021 [30]. - Operational efficiency has improved, with a 76.2% capacity utilization rate in 2024, up 4.7 percentage points from 2017 [39][40]. Section 4: Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects revenues of 33.6 billion, 34.7 billion, and 35.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 4%, 3%, and 3% [47]. - The expected gross margins are forecasted to be 41.2%, 41.5%, and 41.7% for the same years, reflecting improvements due to product mix optimization [47].

Core Insights - Qingdao Beer has been recognized as one of the first "Chinese Consumer Brands" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, highlighting its commitment to quality and consumer satisfaction [1] - The brand's unique "digital end-to-end quality management model" has allowed it to create products that exceed consumer expectations, reinforcing its strong market presence [1][6] Product Strategy - Qingdao Beer has developed a diverse product matrix consisting of 9 major series and over 70 products, catering to various consumer preferences and age groups [3] - The company has introduced innovative products such as the A6 and A3 from the upgraded Aogute series, as well as unique offerings like Nikashi White Beer and non-alcoholic White Beer, enhancing its product differentiation [5] Quality Management - The company emphasizes a rigorous quality control process, involving over 1,800 quality inspection projects and meticulous selection of ingredients, ensuring high standards in every bottle [7] - Qingdao Beer has integrated traditional craftsmanship with modern technology, digitizing quality management practices to preserve the expertise of its artisans [9] Consumer Engagement - Qingdao Beer has successfully positioned itself as a brand that resonates with younger consumers by creating products that align with their emotional and experiential values [10] - The brand has engaged in various marketing initiatives, including collaborations with sports events and the creation of themed products, to enhance its connection with consumers [12] Market Positioning - Qingdao Beer is seen as a leader in the Chinese beer industry, continuously innovating and adapting to market changes while maintaining a focus on quality [5][6] - The brand's ability to blend tradition with modern consumer trends has solidified its reputation as both a classic and trendy choice in the beverage market [10]

Core Viewpoint - Qingdao Beer Company demonstrated resilience in its financial performance amidst a slowing consumer recovery and increasing industry competition, achieving a revenue of 32.138 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 5.30%, while net profit grew by 1.81% to 4.345 billion yuan, marking five consecutive years of profit growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Qingdao Beer reported a revenue of 32.138 billion yuan, down 5.30% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 1.81% to 4.345 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company achieved a gross margin increase of 1.57 percentage points to 40.23% and a net margin increase of 1.16 percentage points to 13.98% in 2024 [2]. - Operating cash flow significantly improved, reaching 5.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.58% [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The growth in net profit is attributed to the company's focus on high-end product strategies, with mid-to-high-end product sales reaching 3.154 million kiloliters, accounting for 41.8% of total sales [3]. - The introduction of innovative products like the A series of "Aogute" and "Nikaqi White Beer" has diversified the product line and contributed to profit growth [3]. - The company accelerated its digital transformation, with online product sales increasing by 21% in 2024, marking 12 consecutive years of growth [3]. Market Expansion - Qingdao Beer is strengthening its presence in traditional markets while actively expanding online channels and new retail models to enhance brand loyalty [4]. - Despite a decline in total sales, the main brand's sales reached 4.34 million kiloliters, maintaining a leading market share [4]. - The company is also expanding its international market presence, distributing products in over 120 countries and regions, enhancing brand recognition through international exhibitions and tasting events [4]. Sustainability Efforts - Qingdao Beer has been recognized as the first "Sustainable Lighthouse Factory" in the global food and beverage industry, with 23 factories awarded national green factory status [5]. - The company is integrating industrial internet and IoT technologies to optimize supply chain efficiency and promote energy-saving initiatives, contributing to its ESG performance [5]. - The company aims to leverage its brand, quality, and distribution network to expand market presence and enhance operational and profitability capabilities [5].