下游 AI 供应链与上游电子布材料更新 20250824 摘要 AI 算力需求激增，微软和谷歌等公司的数据显示算力需求高速增长，推 动 AI 投资逻辑完善。四大云厂商预计在 2026 年资本开支达 4,700 亿美 元，全球总资本开支预计 2027 年达 1 万亿美元，同比增速约 30%，欧 洲和中东主权 AI 投资亦显著。 英伟达 ASIC 需求强劲，预计 2026 年出货量达 100 万片，2027 年达 140-150 万片。若英伟达 2026 年营收达 3,000 亿美元，净利润率 55%，则净利润达 1,650 亿美元，对应市值目标约 5 万亿美元。博通等 ASIC 厂商亦受益，预计收入 800 多亿，净利润 400 多亿，对应市值目 标约 1.6 万亿。 AI PCB 市场需求旺盛，预计 2026 年达 700 亿人民币，供给约 600 多 亿人民币，市场紧缺。单 GPU 的 PCB 价值量在 200-350 美元之间。 ASIC 芯片数量增加带动 PCB 需求增长，交换机端口升级至 1.6T，价值 提升约 9 倍。 正交背板技术是 AI PCB 市场未来发展重点，采用马九树脂材料、Q 布 和五代 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics of electronic fabrics and copper foil materials, particularly in relation to major players like Google and AWS [1][2][19]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **NV Product Developments**: - The GB300 Computer Tree utilizes Doosan's M8 and M4 mixed pressure design (5+12+5 HDI). The Switch Tree is likely to use S9G materials from Shengyi Technology. Expected NV machine shipments for 2025 are close to 15,000 units [1][3]. 2. **Supply Chain Risks**: - Supply of first-generation electronic fabric is sufficient, but second-generation fabric faces tight supply, with high risks anticipated in the first half of 2026. The potential transfer of production capacity for HYP4 copper foil to AWS may create supply pressures [1][6]. 3. **Market Demand for Second-Generation Fabric**: - Significant demand for second-generation fabric is expected from Google, OpenAI, and domestic AI companies, with tight supply anticipated to continue until 2027 [8][9]. 4. **Alternative Solutions for Material Shortages**: - In case of second-generation fabric shortages, alternatives include using M9 resin with first-generation fabric or employing third-generation guiding copper (HOB3) to reduce costs [10][12]. 5. **Q Material Strategy**: - Q materials are gaining importance due to their stable raw material supply compared to second-generation guiding copper, although processing yields are currently low. Long-term, Q materials may become a superior choice post-2027 [11][14]. 6. **Copper Foil Pricing Trends**: - The price of fourth-generation copper foil is on an upward trend due to strong market demand and rising raw material costs. Current supply from domestic manufacturers is insufficient to meet demand [15][16]. 7. **LCT Electronic Fabric Market**: - LCT electronic fabric has seen a price increase of 20% this year, with a market demand of approximately 500,000 to 600,000 meters, but total demand is not as high as expected [16][19]. 8. **Differences in PCB Requirements between AWS and Google**: - AWS has strict cost control measures and different PCB material requirements compared to Google, which uses high-performance GPUs and has more flexibility in material selection [20]. 9. **Future Demand Projections**: - Amazon's demand for T2.5 is currently high, with T3 expected to launch in mid-2026. The increase in chip count per board will reduce overall PCB demand by 40% [24]. Additional Important Insights - The certification cycle for narrow board markets is lengthy, making it difficult for domestic companies to penetrate the market quickly [2][16]. - The overall supply of resin fillers is stable, with ongoing domestic production efforts to reduce costs and improve quality [22]. - The PCB industry is currently facing tight supplies of electronic fabrics and copper foils, while other materials like resins and fillers are relatively abundant [19].

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the electronic fabric industry, specifically LowDK wave fiber cloth and quartz cloth [1][2][3] - The industry is currently in a transitional phase with first-generation (1G), second-generation (2G), and third-generation (3G) products being discussed [1][3] Key Points Market Size and Demand - The first-generation cloth (1G) accounts for approximately 80% of the market, while second-generation cloth (2G) has a demand but faces supply issues due to limited production capacity [1][4] - The current supply of 2G cloth is primarily dominated by Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers, with local suppliers having minimal market share [3][4] Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain for 1G cloth is stable, with no immediate need for expansion as current production meets demand [4][5] - For 2G cloth, there is a noted supply shortage, and manufacturers are cautious about increasing production without clear forecasts [5][21] - The demand for 2G cloth is expected to increase as downstream customers transition from 1G to 2G products [5][21] Pricing Trends - The pricing for 1G cloth is around 30 units (currency unspecified), indicating a mature market [7] - There are indications of potential price increases for 2G cloth due to supply constraints and rising demand [20][23] Technological Developments - The industry is exploring alternative materials and testing new designs to reduce losses in performance [9][10] - The transition to 3G products is still in the testing phase, with no clear timeline for mass production [1][9] Competitive Landscape - Taiwanese and Japanese manufacturers are currently leading in the supply of electronic fabrics, with local suppliers still in the testing phase [3][22] - The performance of local suppliers is being evaluated, with some showing promising results but lacking long-term reliability [24][25] Future Outlook - The demand for 2G cloth is expected to grow, putting pressure on suppliers to meet the increasing needs of the market [21] - The potential for local suppliers to gain market share exists, but they must demonstrate consistent quality and reliability [24][25] Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of consistent quality across batches from suppliers, as variability can impact production [25] - The discussion also touched on the need for manufacturers to adapt to evolving technology and customer requirements in the electronic fabric space [19][30] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future prospects of the electronic fabric industry.