国际复材 20251230 摘要 AI 电子布需求激增，谷歌等公司大量应用二代布，预计 2026 年需求不 低于 5,000 万米，2027 年可能达到 1.几亿米，国际复材积极扩产应对 市场需求。 国际复材作为玻纤龙头，新增年化产能 6,000 万米生产线，处于全球领 先地位，逐步进入一代布和二代布的批量供给阶段，并计划新增约 50 个干锅，使二代布产能翻倍。 公司已为规划项目筹划资源匹配，包括新增订购资金及贵金属采购，目 前贵金属储备充足，并已订购 500 多台织布机，将于 2026 年下半年逐 步交货。 干锅全部转向生产二代布后，每月供给量可达数十万米，客户结构从以 生益科技为主扩展到红河、台光等企业，生益科技仍是当前最紧迫需求 方之一。 二代布干锅法良率约为拉丝环节 70%-80%，整体拉通计算 50%- 60%。公司交付能力尚未完全满足客户需求，如生益科技预计 2026 年 月需求量将达 60-100 吨。 Q&A 近期玻纤行业的变化和趋势如何？ 近期玻纤行业呈现出积极变化，特别是在 AI 电子部件的升级趋势方面。二代布 被认为是 2026 年缺口最大的品种，主要用于 NV 的 GB300 Swit ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, focusing on the comparison between two types of materials: 二代布 (Second Generation Fabric) and Q 布 (Q Fabric) [1][2][16]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Challenges with Q Fabric**: - Q Fabric faces significant challenges in PCB processing, particularly in drilling due to its high hardness, which drastically reduces the lifespan of mechanical drill bits from 2000 holes to about 150 holes [3][4]. - Laser drilling also suffers from poor wall quality, affecting subsequent copper plating [4][3]. 2. **Advantages of Second Generation Fabric**: - The second generation fabric is noted for its quality and stability, making it a more favorable option in PCB solutions compared to Q Fabric [1][16]. - Several CCR manufacturers are evaluating multiple suppliers of second generation fabric, indicating a shift in preference [16]. 3. **Market Demand and Supply**: - There is an anticipated increase in demand for second generation fabric, with projections suggesting usage could reach 1 million meters by mid-2026 [22]. - Initial supply constraints are expected to ease within a few months as production ramps up [15][22]. 4. **Material Upgrades**: - Copper foil is being upgraded from HVRP3 to HVRP4 to reduce roughness and improve electrical performance, addressing skin effect issues in high-speed signal transmission [10][1]. 5. **Future Product Development**: - Ruby's new architecture will increase layer counts from 22 to 26 and upgrade materials to enhance performance [30][1]. - The timeline for determining PCB materials and designs is critical, with decisions needing to be made 5-6 months prior to product launches [11]. 6. **Pricing Trends**: - Recent price increases for glass fabric by Red River Group (20%) are attributed to strategic choices rather than market demand alone [25]. - There has been no significant fluctuation in the prices of second generation and Q fabrics recently, with prices remaining stable [26]. 7. **Competitive Landscape**: - Companies like Panasonic are assessing the production capacity of second generation fabric suppliers, indicating a competitive environment [14]. - The potential for new entrants in the market is limited due to the need for strong technical capabilities [31]. 8. **Technological Challenges**: - The development of orthogonal backplanes is hindered by the need for high-temperature presses, which are currently limited in availability [6][8]. - PTFE materials face challenges in multi-layer applications due to their thermal properties [7]. 9. **Supply Chain Dynamics**: - Domestic companies are facing uncertainty in entering the supply chain, with limited visibility on future integration [21]. - The relationship between Korean companies and Luxembourg suppliers is noted, with ongoing evaluations of new suppliers [20]. 10. **Emerging Technologies**: - Google is shifting towards HDI designs in its TPU products to reduce material usage, indicating a trend towards more efficient designs [29]. Additional Important Insights - The transition from Q Fabric to second generation fabric is seen as a necessary evolution in the industry, with Q Fabric potentially becoming an upgraded version if its issues can be resolved [28]. - The overall sentiment in the industry suggests a cautious optimism regarding the adoption of new materials and technologies, with a focus on quality and reliability over aggressive expansion [17][18].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced significant gains, with all three major indices rising collectively, and the ChiNext index reaching a new high for the year with a nearly 3% increase in a single day [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2.26 trillion yuan, showing a notable increase compared to the previous day [1] - There was a clear divergence among sectors, with Hainan, photovoltaic, and non-ferrous metals leading the gains, while banking and film sectors showed relatively weak performance [1] Research Insights - CICC expressed a cautious view on the future policy path of the Federal Reserve, suggesting that the pace of interest rate cuts may slow down. Despite a rate cut in October, Powell's statements leaned hawkish, creating uncertainty about further cuts in December [3] - CICC noted an increased internal support for pausing rate cuts, indicating that future easing measures may be more cautious and not overly optimistic. The current round of rate cuts may have a weaker stimulating effect on the economy due to a diminishing "refinancing effect" [3] - Huatai Securities shifted focus to U.S. power infrastructure development, particularly the impact of AI on energy demand. They highlighted a $550 billion investment plan under the Japan-U.S. cooperation framework, with an $80 billion nuclear investment led by Westinghouse as a key highlight [3] - Huatai suggested that rising demand for data center connectivity is increasing pressure on U.S. power supply, which may be temporarily addressed by delaying coal power retirements and developing solar storage and solid oxide fuel cells, while long-term solutions will rely on large-scale gas turbine and nuclear power construction [3] - Guotai Junan Securities focused on the technological evolution in the AI new materials sector, indicating that the application of M9 materials could drive upgrades in the industry chain. Companies expressed optimistic growth expectations and plans to expand capacity at recent industry exhibitions [4] - Guotai Junan analyzed that if the M9 solution is implemented, copper foil may shift to HVLP4 types, electronic fabrics will likely use a combination of Q fabric and second-generation fabric, and resins may trend towards hydrocarbon types. The increased hardness of Q fabric could raise the difficulty of PCB processing, thereby increasing demand for drilling needles and benefiting laser drilling technology [4]

Summary of Zhongcai Technology Conference Call Company Overview - Zhongcai Technology is a leading player in the special optical fiber and glass fiber industry, with significant market share and production capacity [2][5]. Key Points and Arguments Special Optical Fiber Business - The special optical fiber business has shown remarkable performance, with a monthly shipment volume expected to increase from 600,000-700,000 meters in Q4 2024 to over 2 million meters by Q3 2025 [2][5]. - The company covers various product categories including first-generation cloth, second-generation cloth, CT, and Q cloth, making it one of the strongest suppliers in terms of comprehensive supply capability [5]. Profit Projections - For 2025, the special glass fiber business is projected to achieve a profit of 350 million yuan, with quarterly profits expected to grow from 30 million yuan in Q1 to 100-150 million yuan in Q4 [2][6]. - In 2026, the combined profit from first-generation, second-generation, and CT products is expected to reach 900-1,000 million yuan, while Q cloth may contribute an additional 500-1,000 million yuan, leading to an overall profit expectation of 1.5-2 billion yuan [6]. Q Cloth Demand and Pricing - Q cloth is highlighted for its highest price and profit elasticity, with prices at 100 yuan per meter compared to 30 yuan for first-generation cloth and 40 yuan for second-generation cloth [2][7]. - The demand for Q cloth is anticipated to increase with applications in Rabin 144 architecture, including CPX and Mid Panel, and further growth expected by 2026 or 2027 with Roving Ultra or orthogonal backplane applications [7][8]. Production Process and Material Differences - First-generation and second-generation cloth primarily use glass fiber, while Q cloth utilizes quartz material, with a shift in production process from traditional methods to rod drawing [9]. - The DF values for first-generation, second-generation, and Q cloth are 0.29%, 0.20%, and approximately 0.5‰ to 0.7‰, respectively, indicating a significant difference in quality and production strategy [10]. Market Position and Competitiveness - Zhongcai Technology is recognized as a key supplier in the construction materials industry, particularly in the PCB upstream CCL materials sector, benefiting from the growth of AI technology [3]. - The company, along with its competitor Feilihua, holds a strong position in the special glass fiber market, with a stable supply chain and clear market share [12]. Wind Power and Other Business Segments - The wind power segment is expected to account for approximately 30% of the industry’s total installed capacity, with an optimistic outlook for Q4 2025 despite overall industry adjustments [13]. - The diaphragm business is not expected to have a significant short-term impact, with projected earnings of 1.5-2 billion yuan next year, contributing to an overall performance of 3.2-3.3 billion yuan [14]. Investment Recommendations - Zhongcai Technology is considered a strong investment choice due to its robust governance and performance stability, particularly during market corrections in the electronics sector [15]. Additional Important Insights - The company is well-positioned to maintain strong growth momentum in the coming years, supported by its comprehensive product offerings and increasing production capacity [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **AI electronic fabric and fiberglass industry**, highlighting significant trends and projections for the coming years. Key Points on AI Electronic Fabric - **High-performance interconnect board demand** is surging, with 2026 expected to be the year of mass application for Ma Jiu interconnect boards, primarily used in devices like Nvidia's B cards and Amazon's chips [1][3] - **Q fabric** is not the only material choice, but its application is being accelerated due to strategic decisions by downstream companies, particularly in the orthogonal backplane sector, with an estimated demand of **2 million meters** by 2026 [1][3] - The **switching field** is driving the application of Ma Jiu materials and Q fabric, with projected demand of **3 million meters** in 2026, increasing to **10 million meters** in 2027 [1][3] - The **supply gap for second-generation fabric** is expected to widen, leading to price increases and enhancing the advantages of repair fabric applications. Demand for LDK electronic fabric is projected to reach **200-300 million meters** by 2027-2028, with Low CTE electronic fabric demand at **30-40 million meters**, resulting in a combined market size of approximately **30 billion RMB** [1][4] Key Points on Fiberglass Industry - The **fiberglass industry** is experiencing a response to internal competition, with small enterprises uniting to propose price increases to improve profitability. The sustainability of these price hikes will depend on market acceptance and competitor reactions [5][26] - **Low CTE electronic fabric** demand has exceeded expectations, driven by increased orders from servers, Apple's M5 chip packaging, and TSMC's push for COS processes in automotive chips [6][7] - The **global mobile phone market** is expected to see significant growth in LCT demand, with projections for **20 million meters** in 2026 and over **30 million meters** in 2027, primarily due to increased sales from major manufacturers like Apple and Huawei [2][8] Additional Insights - **Nitto Denko** is investing **300 million JPY** in capacity expansion, which will increase its annual capacity to **10 million meters** by 2027, indicating strong market demand for LCT [9] - **China National Materials Technology** is optimistic about LCD supply in 2026, expecting a monthly supply of **600,000-700,000 meters** and an overall industry supply gap of around **30%** [10][11] - The **competitive landscape** in the electronic fabric industry is characterized by established players like China National Materials and Fiberglass, which have differentiated themselves in performance, cost, and yield [14] - **China Jushi** is making significant strides in the electronic fabric sector, with plans to achieve a **15% net profit margin**, potentially increasing its market value by **20 billion RMB** [13] - The **supply-side reform** has led to increased competition in the fiberglass industry, with new entrants facing challenges due to price declines and stricter project approvals [25][26] Conclusion - The conference call highlights a robust outlook for both the AI electronic fabric and fiberglass industries, driven by technological advancements and increasing demand from key sectors. The dynamics of supply and demand, along with strategic actions from industry players, will shape the market landscape in the coming years.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, focusing on the supply and demand dynamics of electronic fabrics and copper foil materials, particularly in relation to major players like Google and AWS [1][2][19]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **NV Product Developments**: - The GB300 Computer Tree utilizes Doosan's M8 and M4 mixed pressure design (5+12+5 HDI). The Switch Tree is likely to use S9G materials from Shengyi Technology. Expected NV machine shipments for 2025 are close to 15,000 units [1][3]. 2. **Supply Chain Risks**: - Supply of first-generation electronic fabric is sufficient, but second-generation fabric faces tight supply, with high risks anticipated in the first half of 2026. The potential transfer of production capacity for HYP4 copper foil to AWS may create supply pressures [1][6]. 3. **Market Demand for Second-Generation Fabric**: - Significant demand for second-generation fabric is expected from Google, OpenAI, and domestic AI companies, with tight supply anticipated to continue until 2027 [8][9]. 4. **Alternative Solutions for Material Shortages**: - In case of second-generation fabric shortages, alternatives include using M9 resin with first-generation fabric or employing third-generation guiding copper (HOB3) to reduce costs [10][12]. 5. **Q Material Strategy**: - Q materials are gaining importance due to their stable raw material supply compared to second-generation guiding copper, although processing yields are currently low. Long-term, Q materials may become a superior choice post-2027 [11][14]. 6. **Copper Foil Pricing Trends**: - The price of fourth-generation copper foil is on an upward trend due to strong market demand and rising raw material costs. Current supply from domestic manufacturers is insufficient to meet demand [15][16]. 7. **LCT Electronic Fabric Market**: - LCT electronic fabric has seen a price increase of 20% this year, with a market demand of approximately 500,000 to 600,000 meters, but total demand is not as high as expected [16][19]. 8. **Differences in PCB Requirements between AWS and Google**: - AWS has strict cost control measures and different PCB material requirements compared to Google, which uses high-performance GPUs and has more flexibility in material selection [20]. 9. **Future Demand Projections**: - Amazon's demand for T2.5 is currently high, with T3 expected to launch in mid-2026. The increase in chip count per board will reduce overall PCB demand by 40% [24]. Additional Important Insights - The certification cycle for narrow board markets is lengthy, making it difficult for domestic companies to penetrate the market quickly [2][16]. - The overall supply of resin fillers is stable, with ongoing domestic production efforts to reduce costs and improve quality [22]. - The PCB industry is currently facing tight supplies of electronic fabrics and copper foils, while other materials like resins and fillers are relatively abundant [19].

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the electronic fabric industry, specifically LowDK wave fiber cloth and quartz cloth [1][2][3] - The industry is currently in a transitional phase with first-generation (1G), second-generation (2G), and third-generation (3G) products being discussed [1][3] Key Points Market Size and Demand - The first-generation cloth (1G) accounts for approximately 80% of the market, while second-generation cloth (2G) has a demand but faces supply issues due to limited production capacity [1][4] - The current supply of 2G cloth is primarily dominated by Japanese and Taiwanese manufacturers, with local suppliers having minimal market share [3][4] Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain for 1G cloth is stable, with no immediate need for expansion as current production meets demand [4][5] - For 2G cloth, there is a noted supply shortage, and manufacturers are cautious about increasing production without clear forecasts [5][21] - The demand for 2G cloth is expected to increase as downstream customers transition from 1G to 2G products [5][21] Pricing Trends - The pricing for 1G cloth is around 30 units (currency unspecified), indicating a mature market [7] - There are indications of potential price increases for 2G cloth due to supply constraints and rising demand [20][23] Technological Developments - The industry is exploring alternative materials and testing new designs to reduce losses in performance [9][10] - The transition to 3G products is still in the testing phase, with no clear timeline for mass production [1][9] Competitive Landscape - Taiwanese and Japanese manufacturers are currently leading in the supply of electronic fabrics, with local suppliers still in the testing phase [3][22] - The performance of local suppliers is being evaluated, with some showing promising results but lacking long-term reliability [24][25] Future Outlook - The demand for 2G cloth is expected to grow, putting pressure on suppliers to meet the increasing needs of the market [21] - The potential for local suppliers to gain market share exists, but they must demonstrate consistent quality and reliability [24][25] Additional Insights - The conference highlighted the importance of consistent quality across batches from suppliers, as variability can impact production [25] - The discussion also touched on the need for manufacturers to adapt to evolving technology and customer requirements in the electronic fabric space [19][30] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future prospects of the electronic fabric industry.