2025 年 11 月 02 日 十一月策略和十大金股 —11 月十大金股 投资要点 ▌ 总量观点 行业选择：关注三大方向： 1）红利补涨（银行、煤炭、 公用事业等）；2）景气修复（盈利改善的有色、化工、钢 铁、电力设备、存储、非银等）；3）科技主题（十五五规 划受益的商业航天、量子计算、具身智能等） ▌ 本期金股组合： 新能源：深圳新星（603978.SH） 新能源：强瑞技术（301128.SZ） 汽车：模塑科技（000700.SZ） 汽车：新泉股份（603179.SH） 电力设备：金盘科技（688676.SH） 固定收益：农业银行（601288.SH） 医药：昂利康（002940.SZ） 有色：神火股份（000933.SZ） 化工：江山股份（600389.SH） 有色：藏格矿业（000408.SZ） 注：金股排名不分先后 ▌ 风险提示 地缘政治风险再起，国内政策不及预期，海外降息预期急 转 11 月海外关注美国政府停摆转机、经济分化及 12 月降息预 期、市场流动性。预计美股高位盘整，两端配置；美债震 荡，逢高做多；黄金筑底，逢低布局。国内十五五规划利 好落地，指明未来五年发展方向；短期经济下行压力放 大 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen New Star is the largest global manufacturer of aluminum grain refiners, focusing on R&D, production, and sales, with a competitive edge in scale and technology [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Shenzhen New Star reported revenue of 2.324 billion yuan, ranking 8th in the industry, with the top competitor, Bowei Alloy, achieving 15.474 billion yuan [2] - The main business composition includes aluminum foil raw materials at 809 million yuan (53.96%) and aluminum grain refiners at 503 million yuan (33.53%) [2] - The net profit for the same period was a loss of 62.4771 million yuan, ranking last in the industry, with the top competitor achieving a net profit of 888 million yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, the asset-liability ratio was 60.31%, higher than the industry average of 43.99%, but down from 61.82% year-on-year [3] - The gross profit margin was 3.48%, below the industry average of 15.62%, and decreased from 4.23% year-on-year [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 3.62% to 16,500, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder decreased by 3.49% [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29%, with a significant narrowing of net profit losses [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is expected to enter a performance release period with the production of a 100,000-ton battery aluminum foil raw material project by the end of 2024 [5] - New production lines for 20,000 tons of boron trifluoride complexes and 10,000 tons of boron trifluoride gas are anticipated to start production in October 2025 [5] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 51 million, 224 million, and 392 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 77, 18, and 10 times [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen New Star achieved revenue of 1.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -22 million yuan, indicating a significant reduction in losses [1] Financial Performance - In Q2, the net profit attributable to shareholders was -25 million yuan, primarily impacted by the lithium hexafluorophosphate business [1] - As of September 10, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 56,500 yuan per ton, an increase of approximately 15% from July 21, which corresponds to a rise of 7,300 yuan per ton [1] Future Outlook - The recovery in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices is expected to lead to a turning point in the company's profitability [1] - The company is actively expanding into new businesses, with a clear growth path ahead [1] - The installation of a 20,000-ton boron trifluoride complex production line and a 10,000-ton boron trifluoride gas production line is nearing completion, with production expected to commence in October 2025 [1] Market Demand - Boron trifluoride is primarily used for producing boron-10 isotopes, which have strong demand in nuclear reactor control agents, fast reactor control rods, and nuclear waste treatment [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue recovery, with a 29% year-over-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching 1.5 billion yuan, and a notable reduction in net loss to 22 million yuan [4][5] - The recovery in lithium hexafluorophosphate prices is expected to lead to a turning point in profitability, with prices rising approximately 15% since July 21, 2025 [5] - The company is actively developing new business lines, indicating a clear growth path for the future [5] - The aluminum foil segment is entering a performance release phase, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons expected to contribute positively to profitability [6] - The company is nearing the completion of its boron trifluoride production lines, with expected production starting in October 2025, which is anticipated to have strong demand due to its applications in nuclear technology [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, a 29% increase year-over-year, while the net loss was reduced to 22 million yuan [4][5] - For Q2 2025, revenue was 760 million yuan, a 15% increase year-over-year, with a net loss of 25 million yuan primarily due to the lithium hexafluorophosphate business [5] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 51 million yuan, 224 million yuan, and 392 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 77, 18, and 10 times [8][9] - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 3.059 billion yuan, 3.698 billion yuan, and 4.452 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19.4%, 20.9%, and 20.4% respectively [11] Business Development - The company completed a 100,000-ton battery aluminum foil project by the end of 2024, which is expected to enhance profitability [6] - The boron trifluoride production lines are set to commence operations in October 2025, with high barriers to entry and promising profit potential due to the complexity of production [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown significant revenue growth and a notable reduction in losses, indicating a potential turning point in its financial performance [2][7]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 29% [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was -22 million yuan, reflecting a substantial narrowing of losses [1][2]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 760 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15%, although it incurred a net loss of 25 million yuan, primarily due to the lithium hexafluorophosphate business [2]. Business Developments - The company has completed a 100,000-ton battery aluminum foil project by the end of 2024, which includes 10 casting and rolling production lines and 2 cold rolling production lines [3][4]. - The production line for 20,000 tons of boron trifluoride complex and 10,000 tons of boron trifluoride gas is nearing completion, with an expected launch in October 2025 [5][6]. Market Outlook - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has rebounded, with a current price of 56,500 yuan per ton, up approximately 15% since July 21, which is expected to positively impact the company's profitability [2]. - The high barriers to entry and the complex environmental assessment procedures for boron trifluoride production suggest a promising profit elasticity for the company [6]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 51 million yuan, 224 million yuan, and 392 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7].