Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures both increased. Industrial silicon rose by 3.33%, mainly driven by the rise in polysilicon. Polysilicon rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but the increase converged and prices fell on Friday. Next week, the futures prices are expected to consolidate at high levels with a downward - shifting center of gravity [5]. - For industrial silicon, on the supply side, the spot price increased significantly. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Northwest Yili region remained stable, and large - scale producers showed no signs of production cuts. The production cost in the Southwest decreased, with some regions having a positive resumption of production. On the demand side, the overall demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) continued to slow down [5]. - For polysilicon, on the supply side, the overall production increased this week, with some enterprises increasing production and some under maintenance. On the demand side, affected by the anti - involution meeting, production capacity declined significantly, and downstream demand weakened marginally. The overall demand side still faces great pressure [5]. - In terms of operations, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7800 - 9200. The main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with an oscillation range of 40000 - 45000 and a stop - loss range of 38500 - 46000 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices rose by 3.33% this week, driven by polysilicon. There were rumors of silicon material storage, but they were unconfirmed. Polysilicon prices rose by 6.95%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, but prices fell on Friday due to weak downstream feedback [5]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply increased, and demand from downstream industries slowed down. For polysilicon, supply increased slightly, and demand faced great pressure. If the silicon material storage rumor is disproven next week, prices are expected to fall [5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term within 40000 - 45000, with corresponding stop - loss ranges [5]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures and spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 655 yuan/ton. The production and operating rate increased, with a national output of about 78,900 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 54.33% [11][13][20]. - **Polysilicon**: Futures prices rebounded, the basis weakened, and the spot price remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, and the basis was 2150 yuan/g [15][17]. 3.3. Industry Conditions - **Raw Materials and Costs**: Industrial silicon raw material prices fell slightly, electricity prices decreased, and overall costs continued to decline during the wet season. The electricity price in the Southwest was stable at 0.3 yuan/kWh, and the silica price remained stable [23][26]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased, social inventory increased, and the overall inventory remained flat. As of July 18, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,357 lots, a decrease of 435 lots, and the total social inventory was 553,000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons [28][30]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: Production and operating rates increased, short - term profits were restored, but costs increased significantly, leading to a decline in profits. As of July 18, 2025, the weekly output was 44,900 tons, the operating rate was 71.38% (up 1.97%), the spot price was 10,860 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton), the gross profit was 63 yuan/ton (down 263 yuan/ton), and the cost was 10,797 yuan/ton (up 323 yuan/ton) [33][37][44]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices fell, inventory increased significantly, and passive de - stocking continued. As of July 18, 2025, the price was 20,100 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton), and the inventory was 37,200 tons (up 5800 tons) [46][48]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: Silicon wafer and battery cell prices fell, while polysilicon prices rose, but downstream acceptance was weak. As of July 18, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.17 yuan/piece (down 0.02 yuan/piece), and the battery cell price was 0.26 yuan/watt (down 0.02 yuan/watt) [53][55]. - **Polysilicon Production Cost and Output**: The cost of trichlorosilane (photovoltaic grade) remained flat, while the industrial silicon price increased, leading to higher production costs. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month (a 3.15% month - on - month decrease) [60][65].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an industrial silicon and polysilicon market weekly report, covering the period from June 5th to June 13th, 2025 [2] - It provides an analysis of the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, including price trends, supply and demand, and inventory levels - Recommendations for trading strategies are also given Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices rose 0.75% this week, with the market sentiment warming up as it approached the cash - cost price of large manufacturers. However, the 07 contract is expected to have limited performance next week, while the 08 contract has seen a significant increase in short positions [7] - Polysilicon prices fell 3.01% this week, continuing the previous week's decline due to the bankruptcy of US energy storage companies and the subsequent decline in downstream photovoltaic prices [7] - In the industrial silicon market, supply is increasing as Yunnan and Sichuan enter the rainy season, and demand from downstream industries shows a flat trend overall. The large number of warehouse receipts has brought significant delivery pressure to the market [7] - In the polysilicon market, supply is decreasing as all manufacturers are operating at reduced capacity, and demand is weak due to factors such as reduced downstream photovoltaic component production and high inventory levels [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: Industrial silicon rose 0.75% this week, while polysilicon fell 3.01% [7] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For industrial silicon, supply is increasing as large enterprises ramp up production during the rainy season, and downstream demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy shows a flat trend. For polysilicon, supply is decreasing as manufacturers operate at reduced capacity, and demand is weak due to factors such as reduced downstream production and high inventory [7] - **Trading Recommendations**: Industrial silicon's main contract is expected to trade in a range of 6800 - 7800, with a stop - loss range of 6500 - 8000. Polysilicon's main contract is expected to trade in a range of 32500 - 39000, with a stop - loss range of 32000 - 42000 [7] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Trends**: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices fell this week. Industrial silicon's spot price was flat, and its basis weakened. Polysilicon's spot price decreased, and its basis also weakened [8][13][17] - **Futures Market**: Industrial silicon's production and capacity utilization increased this week, with a national production of about 70,600 tons and a capacity utilization rate of 48.62% [21][22] 3. Industry Situation - **Raw Materials**: Industrial silicon raw material prices fell, and most manufacturers' production costs were not supported [25] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's warehouse receipts and social inventory decreased this week, but the overall inventory pressure remained high [30][32] - **Downstream Industries**: - Organic silicon production and operating rates increased, but its profit decreased due to falling spot prices. It is expected that production will continue to increase [35][39][41] - Aluminum alloy prices fell, and inventory increased, making it difficult to drive industrial silicon demand [47][49] - Silicon wafer prices fell, which dragged down polysilicon demand. Battery cell prices were flat, and demand was unclear [54][56] - **Cost and Production**: Polysilicon's production cost remained flat, and its production is expected to decline gradually. In May 2025, China's polysilicon production was 97,355 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59% [60][62]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.06」 工业硅多晶硅市场周报 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 短期恐慌情绪暂缓，大厂现金成本支撑 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 目录 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾： 本周工业硅上涨1.82%，本周上半周工业硅延续上周丰水期恐慌继续下跌，市场开始逼近了大厂现金成本 价，来到了7000以下，后来跌破7000后，期权市场在7500行权价附近看涨期权突然大幅增仓，同时期货空头仓位开始 减少，整体价格反弹上行，本周值得注意的是，12月以后合约对07合约升水幅度快速下滑，市场更多空头开始做空远 月合约，对于近月合约反而较少触碰，所以7000可以看做是市场短期一个默契的底部区域，本周多晶硅下跌2.42%，头 部企业目前集中减产挺价，但是效果依旧不明朗，本周多晶硅呈现了小幅下跌走势。 u 行情展望：工业硅方面，从供应端来看，随着丰水期临近，云南、四川等地逐步进入丰水期，电价成本优势显现，但 ...