Core Viewpoint - Swire Properties reported a 15% year-on-year increase in basic profit to HKD 4.42 billion for the first half of 2025, despite a 4% decrease in recurring profit attributable to shareholders due to declining rental income from office properties in Hong Kong [2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Basic profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 15% to HKD 4.42 billion [2] - Recurring profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4% from HKD 3.57 billion in the first half of 2024 to HKD 3.42 billion in the first half of 2025 [2] - Total rental income from office properties in Hong Kong fell by 5% to HKD 2.455 billion [3] Group 2: Market Conditions - The Hong Kong office market is expected to remain sluggish in the second half of the year due to intense competition and unstable demand growth [3] - The overall occupancy rate of Swire Properties' office portfolio in Hong Kong is 88% [3] - Retail properties in Hong Kong showed a slight decline in rental income, down 2% to approximately HKD 1.169 billion, while the occupancy rate for major shopping centers reached 100% [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus - Swire Properties continues to focus on its HKD 100 billion investment plan, with 67% of the funds already committed [4] - The company has made significant progress in its investment in mainland China, with 92% of the planned HKD 50 billion investment already implemented [4] - Future projects include expanding residential properties in Hong Kong and increasing total floor area in mainland China [5]

Group 1: Core Business Performance - The Hong Kong office market is facing significant challenges, with a vacancy rate rising to 13.6% in the first half of 2025, indicating an oversupply situation [2] - The rental rate for the company's Hong Kong office properties has declined from 93% at the end of 2024 to 91% by the end of Q2 2025, with specific declines of 1% for Taikoo Place and 3% for Taikoo Square [2] - Rental rates for the two core properties have decreased by 14% and 15% respectively, reflecting competitive market conditions [2] Group 2: Retail Market Performance - In contrast to the office sector, the company's retail properties have shown stable growth, with key projects maintaining a 100% occupancy rate [4] - Notable sales growth was observed in Shanghai's Taikoo Hui, which increased by 13.5%, and Beijing's Sanlitun Taikoo Li, which grew by 6.8% [4] - The performance disparity among retail projects is influenced by local economic conditions and operational factors, necessitating targeted strategies for maintaining retail business stability [4] Group 3: Future Development Projects - Several new projects, including Beijing Taikoo Place and Xi'an Taikoo Li, are under construction and are expected to be completed between 2026 and 2027, which will provide new growth momentum for the company [5]

机构：华创证券 研究员：单戈 事项： 香港购物中心保持满租，零售额增速环比改善。与街边店等受游客和"北上消费"影响不同，公司香港购 物中心整体延续24 年Q4 趋势，持续小幅改善。 其中太古广场、太古城中心、东荟城名店仓25 年H1 零售额增速同比+1.4%、+2%、-3.3%，出租率连续 6 个季度达100%，也印证了商户倾向于头部优质物业的趋势。 香港写字楼消化历史降租影响中。1）由于新增供应持续对租金造成下行压力，香港整体办公楼市场仍 相对疲弱。资本市场改善，但对办公楼的需求仍需时间恢复。2）公司香港写字楼新签约租金未见明显 下降，出租率小幅下降，租金调幅仍在-16%至-14%之间，意味着香港写字楼仍需要消化历史降租影 响。3）内地写字楼因位置核心且质量好，出租率环比小幅提升，租金稳定。 投资建议：太古地产所持有资产均为商圈头部项目，护城河深，以及公司运营招商能力为项目赋能，我 们仍看好公司租金长期稳定性。我们预计公司25-27年归母净利润分别增长449%、54%、37%，分红仍 保持年5%的增速，测算DDM 模型下目前每股净现值为23.92 港元；对应2025 年股息率为5.6%。维 持"推荐"评级。 ...