——美国 4 月 CPI 数据点评 通胀季节性回落，后续关税影响或较为温 和 2025 年 5 月 15 日 宏观经济 事件点评 | | | 事件： 数据方面，住宅环比上涨 0.3%，贡献了 4 月超过一半的通胀。能源价格环比上涨 0.7%，主要来自天然气和电力，覆盖了汽 油价格的下跌。食品价格环比下降 0.1%，主要是居家食品降 0.4%，而外卖食品环比涨 0.4%。核心通胀方面，上涨的有家 具家装（1%），医疗（0.5%），车险（0.6%），教育（0.1%），和个人护理（0.1%）。价格下降的有机票（2.8%）、二手车（0.5%）、 通信以及服装。新车和休闲娱乐价格没有变化。 能源价格的下降主导了通胀和核心通胀的趋势性回落。从长期趋势看，通胀一般落后原油价格一个月，而核心通胀与过去 12 个月通胀的移动平均步调基本一致，可以理解为，在其他因素不变的情况下，由能源成本主导的商品价格的变化慢慢渗透到 服务部门的时间大约为一年。另一个显著影响通胀的为 M2 同比，即长期通胀是货币现象（图 11、12、13）。与去年相比， 通胀环比的波动区间显然又下了一个台阶（约 10bp 图 6）。 我们在年初通胀点评中提到" ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $337.7 million, a 20.3% increase from $280.7 million in Q1 2024 [9] - Adjusted earnings per share rose to $1.42, up 17.4% from $1.21 in Q1 2024 [9] - Adjusted EBITDA increased to $40.6 million, a 25.1% rise from $32.4 million in Q1 2024 [9] - Gross margin percentage improved to 31.9% from 31.4% in Q1 2024 [24] - Adjusted EBITDA margin was 12%, compared to 11.6% in Q1 2024 [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal Care segment revenues were $258.3 million, accounting for 76.5% of total revenue, with a 7.4% organic revenue growth [23] - Hospice same store revenue increased by 9.9%, with average daily census rising to 3,515, a 4.6% increase year-over-year [14][21] - Home Health segment revenues were $18 million, representing 5.3% of total revenue, with a 1.3% organic revenue growth [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal Care services received favorable reimbursement support, including a 5.5% rate increase in Illinois effective January 1, 2025 [12] - Same store hours in Personal Care increased by 2% compared to Q1 2024, marking the largest year-over-year volume growth in recent quarters [13] - The company experienced solid caregiver hiring success, with 79 hires per day in Personal Care, up from 78 in Q1 2024 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for a minimum annual revenue growth of 10%, focusing on acquisitions that complement organic growth [17] - The Gentiva acquisition added approximately $280 million in annualized revenues, significantly expanding market coverage [22] - The company is actively pursuing additional acquisition opportunities to enhance density in existing markets and add clinical services [23][28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the continued demand for home-based care, viewing it as a growth opportunity [18] - The company anticipates stable gross margins and consistent cash flow conversion in line with historical averages [25][27] - Management noted that the clinical hiring environment remains challenging, but improvements have been observed in the personal care segment [11][67] Other Important Information - The company utilized approximately $2.5 million in ARPA funding during Q1 2025, with $8.8 million remaining [28] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had cash on hand of approximately $97 million and reduced bank debt by $20 million [9][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Commentary on hospice cap limitations - Management indicated that cap limitations have not been material, with effective management of referral mix [33][34] Question: Impact of weather on personal care services - Management confirmed weather events affected January but noted a rebound in February and March, expecting hours growth to remain in the 2% to 2.5% range [40][41] Question: Hospice revenue growth expectations - Management projected hospice revenue growth in the 5% to 7% range, leaning towards the upper end [44] Question: Margin expansion expectations - Management expects typical margin expansion of 40 to 50 basis points into Q2, with Q1 usually being the low point [50][51] Question: Impact of Medicaid changes - Management stated that potential changes to Medicaid would likely have no direct impact on the company, as its patient base is primarily elderly and disabled [54][56] Question: Performance of Gentiva post-acquisition - Management reported that Gentiva's bottom line performance has exceeded expectations, while top line growth was slightly lighter than anticipated [77] Question: Update on home health services - Management noted stability in Medicare rates and improvements in contracting with Medicare Advantage plans, with discounts narrowing from 40% to 15-20% [106]