Core Viewpoint - Retail banking is a crucial focus for commercial banks' transformation, facing challenges in 2024, but remains a key growth engine under policies promoting domestic demand and consumption [1] Retail Customer Situation - In 2024, 29 listed banks reported over 4.6 billion retail customers, an increase of 120 million from 2023, indicating intense competition in personal financial services [2] Retail Deposits and Loans - By the end of 2024, household deposits reached 152.3 trillion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, with 57 listed banks reporting retail deposits totaling 109 trillion yuan, accounting for 71.5% of the industry [5] - All 57 banks reported an increase in personal deposit scale, with the highest growth exceeding 30%. For instance, the average cost rate of retail customer deposits for China Merchants Bank was 1.44% [5] - The total amount of household loans was 82.8 trillion yuan, growing by 3% year-on-year, with retail loans from 57 listed banks totaling 64 trillion yuan, representing 77% of the industry [7] Retail Loan Structure - Among 59 sample banks, 29 saw an increase in personal housing loans, with some banks like Zheshang Bank and Guizhou Bank exceeding 10% growth. Consumer loans also saw significant increases, with some banks reporting over 40% growth [10] Retail Business Income - Of the 55 banks reporting retail line performance, 24 experienced year-on-year growth in retail business income, while 19 saw profit increases. However, half of the banks reported increased credit impairment losses, with the highest increase reaching 180% [12] - Interest income remains the primary source of retail business revenue, averaging 90% of total income, with many banks relying on inter-departmental interest income to support retail loan growth [12] Retail Business Risk - Most listed banks reported retail business non-performing loan ratios between 1% and 3%, with some city commercial banks nearing 5%. Housing loans showed the best asset quality, while risks in operating loans from regional banks need attention [14]

Core Viewpoint - A wave of interest rate cuts is occurring in China, with multiple banks reducing deposit rates to alleviate pressure on their liabilities, following a trend initiated by several small and medium-sized banks [1][5][6]. Summary by Category Deposit Rate Adjustments - Several banks, including regional and private banks, have announced reductions in deposit rates effective from late April to early May. For instance, a bank in Henan has adjusted its one-year, two-year, three-year, and five-year deposit rates to 1.8%, 1.8%, 2.05%, and 1.95%, respectively, down by 10 to 15 basis points from rates effective March 1 [1][2]. - Xinjiang Fuhai Rural Commercial Bank has lowered its one-year deposit rate from 1.75% to 1.7%, and its two-year rate from 1.95% to 1.8%, among other adjustments [2][4]. Market Trends and Predictions - The trend of interest rate cuts is driven by net interest margin pressures and a response to policy guidance and market expectations. Many banks are adapting to lower market interest rates to stabilize interest income and explore non-interest income sources [5][6]. - Analysts predict that deposit rates still have room for further reductions, with expectations that rates will align closely with policy rate declines. The market is observing a significant drop in government bond yields compared to policy rates, indicating potential for further decreases in asset yields [5][6]. Monetary Policy Implications - The recent statements from the political bureau regarding monetary policy suggest a shift towards more timely adjustments in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, with expectations that deposit rates will be prioritized over Loan Prime Rate (LPR) adjustments [6][7]. - It is anticipated that the current round of deposit rate adjustments will begin with small and medium-sized banks, aiming to minimize the impact on larger banks while ensuring liquidity support for major bondholders [7].