天风证券指出，我国资产管理和财富管理服务需求潜力巨大，当前居民资产中股票基金占比约 15%，相当于美国30年前水平，未来居民侧有望为市场提供持续增量资金。券商行业将强化服务实体经 济功能，从规模导向转向功能优先，头部机构有望适度提升杠杆，中小券商则需差异化发展，打造精品 投行或特色服务商。保险方面，风险因子调降将利好长期持仓的沪深300、中证红利低波动及科创板股 票，保险公司长期投资能力提升有望更好发挥耐心资本作用。行业整体将聚焦稳市兴市，助力居民资产 配置优化，同时提升专业服务能力，筑牢市场发展基础。 证券ETF（512880）跟踪的是证券公司指数（399975），该指数从A股市场中选取业务涉及证券经 纪、承销与保荐等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映证券行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 成分股覆盖了该行业内具有代表性的企业，充分体现了证券市场的运行特征和发展态势。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： n ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：现代商业银行杂志） 近年来，从活期存款利率进入"0字头"，到中长期存款"降温"，越来越多的投资者开始寻找收益稳定且 风险可控的理财方式。越来越多的年轻人在资产配置上探索更稳健的理财方式：不同于传统的婚嫁"三 金"即金镯子、金项链、金戒指，如今年轻人用货币基金、债券基金和黄金基金等"新三金"组合配置， 守住自己的"钱袋子"。 "居民资产配置理念的升级，既有无风险利率持续降低的宏观环境因素驱动，也有数字时代金融信息获 取便捷度和投资工具普及度提升的带动。"杨赫注意到，专业金融机构统计数据显示，当前我国资产管 理总规模已突破170万亿元，成为全球第二大财富管理市场。 年轻人理财青睐"新三金" "这轮存款流向了资本市场，带动非银（券商、基金、保险公司）存款的增加，资本市场正在承接从银 行体系溢出的巨量流动性。"在金融街证券股份有限公司首席经济学家张一看来，目前的趋势之一是普 通家庭的资产负债表正在试图"去房地产化"，将资金腾挪到金融资产上，资产配置的逻辑之一是配置大 量低波资产，"资金大量流向各种固收类产品、短债基金，以获得比存款高1~2个百分点收益。" 实际上，在存款利率下行的背景下，越来越 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in asset allocation strategies among young investors in response to declining deposit interest rates, moving from traditional gold jewelry to more diversified financial products like money market funds, bond funds, and gold funds [1][4]. Group 1: Changes in Deposit Products - Several small and medium-sized banks are adjusting their deposit product structures, moving away from long-term high-interest deposits, as evidenced by a village bank's cancellation of a 5-year fixed deposit product [2]. - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 23.32 trillion yuan in RMB deposits over the first ten months of 2025, with household deposits rising by 11.39 trillion yuan [2]. - There is a notable shift in household savings towards other asset classes, indicating a reallocation of assets by residents [2][3]. Group 2: Young Investors' Preferences - Young investors are increasingly favoring a "new three golds" investment strategy, which includes money market funds, bond funds, and gold funds, as a more stable approach to wealth management [4][6]. - A 95-born fund industry worker shared their investment strategy, dividing funds into three categories: liquid, stable, and long-term, reflecting a growing awareness of personal risk tolerance [4][6]. - The popularity of the "new three golds" is seen as a defensive evolution in financial management, focusing on stable returns rather than high-risk investments [4][6]. Group 3: Asset Management Market Growth - China's total asset management scale has surpassed 170 trillion yuan, making it the second-largest wealth management market globally [3]. - The trend of reallocating funds from bank deposits to capital markets is contributing to the growth of non-bank financial institutions [4]. Group 4: Banking Industry Transformation - The banking sector is undergoing a transformation from scale-driven strategies to optimizing structures and focusing on comprehensive service competition due to sustained pressure on net interest margins [7][8]. - Banks are shifting towards wealth management and investment banking services, aiming to provide comprehensive financial solutions to retain customers and stabilize funding [7][8]. - Community banks are actively engaging in financial education initiatives, such as financial literacy classes and resources for different demographics, to adapt to changing financial needs [8].

Core Viewpoint - The private equity sector is increasing its positions despite market volatility, with a notable rise in stock private equity positions reaching over 81% as of November 14, indicating a strong confidence in the A-share market's long-term potential [1][2]. Group 1: Private Equity Positioning - As of November 14, the stock private equity position index reached 81.13%, up 1.05 percentage points from November 7, marking a continuous three-week period above the 80% threshold [2]. - The proportion of fully invested (over 80% positions) private equity funds rose to 65.9%, while those with medium positions (50-80%) decreased to 18.97% [4]. - The increase in positions among medium-position private equity funds has been a key driver for the rising position index [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trends - Analysts suggest that the recent market fluctuations indicate that risks have been sufficiently released, reducing the likelihood of significant downward movement in the market [5]. - The market is expected to remain in a rebalancing state, with a shift from valuation-driven factors to fundamental drivers as companies begin to realize their earnings [5]. - The sentiment in the market is still cautious, providing opportunities for increased positions during this volatile period [5]. Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - Private equity funds are favoring growth sectors such as technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as cyclical sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [6]. - There is a focus on AI as a transformative force in demand creation, with expectations of significant growth potential in this area [6]. - Traditional industries are anticipated to see profit upgrades due to enhanced export competitiveness and recovery in domestic demand, with private equity firms looking to capitalize on opportunities in AI applications, upstream resources, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6].

Market Performance - Major stock indices in the two markets showed weakness, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark again, and the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices dropping over 1% [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.24% to 3993.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.07%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.58%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index declined by 1.65% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 12,704 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as semiconductors, chemicals, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, brokerages, and steel experienced declines, while insurance, banking, oil, and pharmaceuticals saw gains [1] - Concepts related to brain engineering and innovative pharmaceuticals were active in the market [1] Investment Outlook - Long-term trends for technology growth stocks show insufficient cost-effectiveness, with increasing short-term fundamental concerns [2] - There is a lack of established structures to lead the market breakout, suggesting that the A-share market may continue to experience a volatile phase [2] - The spring of 2026 is projected to be a potential peak, but it is unlikely to represent the peak for the entire year or the current bull market [2] - Three areas of mid-term returns are anticipated: cyclical improvement in fundamentals, asset allocation shifts towards equities leading to valuation reassessment, and increased global influence of China enhancing economic conditions and valuation [2] - The effective return of the framework of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected by mid-2026, coinciding with a potential start of a new bull market phase [2]

Core Insights - The banking deposit business is experiencing a "temperature difference" phenomenon, with personal fixed deposits showing significant growth while demand for current deposits is uneven across banks [1][3][10] Group 1: Personal Fixed Deposits - Personal fixed deposit balances across nine listed banks showed positive year-on-year growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with notable increases from Hangzhou Bank (29.12%), Chengdu Bank, and Nanjing Bank (both over 24%) [3][4] - City commercial banks are performing well due to their deep ties with regional economies and flexible product innovation strategies [3][4] - The growth in personal fixed deposits reflects a shift in residents' asset allocation preferences, driven by lower risk tolerance amid market volatility [5][10] Group 2: Current Deposits - Current deposit growth is characterized by significant disparities, with some banks experiencing strong growth while others face declines [6][7] - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank reported a current deposit balance of 4,617.38 billion yuan, growing by 11.80% year-on-year, attributed to effective deposit management strategies [6][7] - Some regional banks, like Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank, reported a decline in current deposits, indicating challenges in maintaining customer loyalty and competitive positioning [8][9] Group 3: Industry Trends and Strategies - The overall increase in household deposits and the rise of net worth management products indicate a shift in the banking industry's competitive landscape, moving from scale competition to a focus on comprehensive financial service capabilities [10][12] - Banks are adopting differentiated strategies to attract long-term funds and enhance service offerings, with a focus on optimizing deposit structures and managing costs effectively [11][12] - The trend of fixed deposits is expected to continue as interest rates decline, prompting banks to adapt their strategies to align with changing resident asset allocation needs [12]

Core Insights - The recent increase in household deposits and non-bank financial institution deposits indicates a shift in asset allocation behavior among residents, reflecting a response to changes in asset return rates [1][2] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In the first three quarters of this year, RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 12.73 trillion yuan and non-bank financial institution deposits increasing by 4.81 trillion yuan [1] - The growth rate of household deposits has slowed compared to previous highs, while non-bank deposits continue to grow rapidly [1][2] Group 2: Historical Context - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is not new and has been a regular occurrence in the development of financial markets over the past 20 years, with various asset types attracting funds at different times [2] - The rapid growth of non-bank financial institution deposits is linked to the increased regularization of non-bank deposits and the holding of interbank certificates of deposit [2] Group 3: Impact of Interest Rates - Changes in interest rates act as a guiding mechanism for fund flows, with "deposit migration" resulting from relative changes in yields across different financial markets [2] - As expectations for bond and stock yields rise, individuals tend to increase their holdings in these assets, leading to a corresponding reduction in other asset allocations [2] Group 4: Economic Implications - Active asset reallocation based on yield comparisons can optimize resource allocation and support high-quality economic development [3] - The movement of funds into capital markets through various channels can provide direct financing support to the real economy, reflecting an increase in wealth management awareness among investors [3] Group 5: Challenges and Recommendations - Despite the benefits of diversified asset allocation, challenges such as information asymmetry, uneven investor education levels, and the need for improved market systems still exist [3] - Continuous investor education, diversification of financial product offerings, and enhanced market regulation are essential to maintain fair and transparent markets and protect investor rights [3]

Core Insights - The process of "deposit migration" has shown signs of slowing down, with significant divergence in deposit structures observed in September, where household deposits increased while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased [2][3] Deposit Structure Changes - In September, household deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 760 billion yuan, marking the first time in the second half of the year that monthly household deposits exceeded 2 trillion yuan [3][4] - Conversely, non-bank deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97 trillion yuan, representing the first negative growth in non-bank deposits in the second half of the year [3][5] Monetary Supply Dynamics - The changes in household and non-bank deposits have led to a contrasting performance in M1 and M2 monetary aggregates, with M1 showing an increase and M2 experiencing a decline [2][8] - As of September, M2's year-on-year growth rate was 8.4%, down from 8.8% in August, while M1's growth rate rose to 7.2%, up from 6% in August, indicating enhanced market liquidity [8][9] Economic and Policy Influences - The structural changes in deposits are attributed to a combination of fiscal policy actions, market fluctuations, and shifts in household asset allocation preferences [4][5] - Analysts suggest that the decline in non-bank deposits is influenced by last year's high base effect, market volatility, and adjustments in asset management products [5][6] Investment Behavior - The concept of "deposit migration" reflects residents reallocating their savings into other assets based on changes in expected returns, indicating a dynamic shift in investment behavior [6][7] - Despite the recent slowdown in the migration of household savings to capital markets, the process of asset reallocation continues, as evidenced by improvements in new fund establishment and account openings [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in China's deposit structure, highlighting a significant divergence between household deposits and non-bank financial institution deposits, indicating a slowdown in the "deposit migration" process as capital markets fluctuate [3][5]. Group 1: Deposit Structure Changes - In September, household deposits increased by 2.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 760 billion yuan, marking the first time in the second half of the year that monthly household deposits exceeded 2 trillion yuan [5][6]. - Conversely, non-bank deposits decreased by 1.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97 trillion yuan, representing the first negative growth in monthly non-bank deposits since the beginning of the second half of the year [5][6]. - This structural change is attributed to a combination of fiscal policy actions, market fluctuations, and adjustments in household asset allocation preferences [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Analysis - Chief economist Li Chao from Zheshang Securities noted that in September, the increase in RMB deposits was 2.21 trillion yuan, with household deposits contributing significantly to this growth [7]. - The decline in non-bank deposits is influenced by last year's high base effect, market volatility, and adjustments in asset management products [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the recent "deposit migration" phenomenon reflects a reallocation of household assets in response to changing asset return rates, rather than a direct cause of market changes [10]. Group 3: M1 and M2 Trends - The changes in household and non-bank deposits have led to a contrasting trend in M1 and M2, with M1's year-on-year growth rate rising to 7.2% in September, while M2's growth rate fell to 8.4% [12][13]. - The narrowing of the M1-M2 gap indicates increased market liquidity, suggesting that households and enterprises are more inclined to convert time deposits into demand deposits for immediate spending [13]. - Analysts emphasize that the recent increase in M1 does not necessarily indicate a significant recovery in the real estate market or a substantial boost in consumption and investment activity [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that as real interest rates decline, there is potential for continued inflow of household assets into equity assets in China, indicating a shift in investment behavior [1] - Currently, the proportion of stocks and funds in Chinese household assets is significantly lower compared to developed markets, suggesting room for growth in this sector [1] - Historically, when the proportion of funds with positive net value reaches 80%, there is a turning point in fund issuance, and the current situation is approaching this indicator [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of leveraged funds, there is still some incremental space for financing balances, indicating potential for further investment activity [1]