炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：荀玉根思考 核心结论：①中国居民资配中房产占比近半，21年来固收规模大增，未来望逐步增配权益，目前权益比 例不到10%。②1982-2000年美国产业结构升级驱动美股长牛，叠加养老金制度改革，推动居民资产配 置转向权益，目前权益比例达34%。③当前中国类似1980年代初的美国，居民资配转向权益处于铺垫 期。借鉴历史规律，预计26年A股各类增量资金合计2万亿。 从居民资配变迁看资金入市 国信证券首席经济学家 荀玉根 24年924以来A股牛市徐徐展开，而国内房价调整明显，长债利率已下行到低位，市场对居民资产配置 逐步转向权益期待颇高。本文借鉴1980年代美国居民资配转向权益的历史，分析中国居民资产增配权益 的过程将如何演变。 1．中国居民资配的现况及演变趋势 全球横向比较，中国居民资产配置中房产占比偏高、权益资产占比偏低。根据国家资产负债表明细，居 民部门资产主要被划分为金融资产（如股票、基金、存款、债券等）和非金融资产（如住房资产、生产 性固定资产等）两类。 一方面，中国居民部门配置住房资产的比例明显偏高。多数经济体非金融资产中住房 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】中国人民银行日前发布《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》指出，下阶段将继续实施 好适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充 裕和社会融资条件相对宽松。未来将常态化开展国债买卖操作，关注长期收益率的变化。 值得关注的是，针对市场对银行存款"流失"的担忧，央行分析指出，居民资产配置调整最终会回流到银行体系，并不 意味着流动性状况出现较大变化。 与此同时，人民币对美元的升值在历史上推动了中国股市的回报，其中周期性、成长型股票的表现优于防御型股票。 但由于大宗商品和金属价格上涨导致输入成本增加，部分周期性、成长型龙头企业能够通过成本转嫁或提价来应对， 而其他行业如汽车、消费电子和家电等，则可能面临利润空间受挤压的风险。 摩根大通近日发文则强调了中国消费市场的上行交易机会。报告认为，尽管消费者变得更为审慎，但他们对高品质产 品的支付意愿强烈，推动了相关领域的增长。这一趋势得益于中国家庭资产负债表的改善和消费观念向更务实、重品 质的转变。 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，低利率环境和权益市场赚钱效应形成，居民资金入市稳步推进；券商各业务均受 益于增量资金入市。居民无论是以直接入市还是间接入市的方式增配权益，券商都将受益。国泰海通认 为：1)渠道端从垂直流量走向公域流量，更适应业态转型的券商预计更优；2)固收+商将以两预计成为 本轮居民增量入市的核心抓手，股债能力并重，更看好参控股头部公募的券商。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 私募基金/资管：私募基金新发环比高增。12月末私募基金存量规模22.2万亿元，环比增长0.27%，私募 基金新备案规模989.0亿元，环比变动+38.6%。12月私募资管存量规模12.3万亿元，环比变动-1.65%， 其中权益类、固收类、商品及金融衍生品类、混合类规模分别同比变动-2.35%、-4.11%、+73.61%、 +38.69%；12月私募资管新发规模达819.3亿元，环比变动-3.86%。 理财/保险/存款：12月银行理财份额增量-2356.1亿元，份额环比-0.81%，其中权益类、固收类、现金管 理类增量分别为-17.4、-1885.4、+18.8亿元；保险公司保费收入4007亿元，同比变动+7.2%，其中寿险 保费收入同比+ ...

Core Viewpoint - By December 2025, residents' asset allocation is primarily focused on deposits, with a marginal increase in equity investments. Securities firms will benefit multidimensionally as residents' funds enter the market [1]. Group 1: Asset Allocation - As of December 2025, the total market stock of wealth management products available for residents reached 352.5 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter change of +1.05% and a year-on-year change of +10.4%. The net increase in value was 3.7 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter change of +364.2% [1]. - The incremental growth of various wealth management products includes public funds (+695.7 billion yuan), private funds (+59.3 billion yuan), private asset management (-206.2 billion yuan), bank wealth management (-122.3 billion yuan), and deposits (+2.585 trillion yuan), contributing 19%, 2%, -6%, -3%, and +70% respectively [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - The equity market showed strong performance, with major indices rising as residents' risk appetite increased, leading to a shift from deposits to higher-yield assets. The stock fund index, mixed fund index, bond fund index, and money market fund index saw changes of +2.12%, +3.28%, +0.17%, and +0.11% respectively [2]. - By the end of December, the total market size of public funds reached 37.7 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter change of +1.88%. The sizes of stock funds, mixed funds, bond funds, and QDII saw quarter-on-quarter changes of +4.39%, +2.13%, +3.92%, and +1.64% respectively [2]. - New fund issuance in December totaled 113.22 billion units, with a quarter-on-quarter change of +19.72%. Equity fund issuance decreased by -10.73%, while bond fund issuance increased by +136.82% [2]. Group 3: Private Funds and Asset Management - The stock of private funds reached 22.2 trillion yuan by the end of December, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of +0.27%. The newly registered private fund scale was 98.9 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter change of +38.6% [3]. - The stock of private asset management reached 12.3 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter change of -1.65%. The year-on-year changes for equity, fixed income, commodity and financial derivatives, and mixed categories were -2.35%, -4.11%, +73.61%, and +38.69% respectively [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The low interest rate environment and the profit effect from the equity market are driving residents' funds into the market steadily. Securities firms are expected to benefit from the influx of incremental funds. It is anticipated that firms adapting to the transition from vertical to public flow will perform better [4]. - The combination of fixed income and equity is expected to be a core strategy for this round of residents' incremental market entry, with a focus on firms that balance both capabilities [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in household asset allocation in China, highlighting a shift from traditional bank deposits to wealth management and asset management products, driven by declining interest rates and a more diversified financial market [3][5][7]. Group 1: Changes in Asset Allocation - In the context of declining interest rates, households and enterprises are increasingly reallocating their assets towards wealth management and asset management products, indicating a more flexible approach to asset distribution [3][5]. - By the end of 2025, the balance of funds from households and enterprises in asset management products reached 56.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, outpacing the growth of household and enterprise deposits by 2.4 percentage points [6]. Group 2: Growth of Asset Management Products - The scale of asset management products has grown rapidly, with a total asset balance of 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% and an increase of 13.8 trillion yuan over the year [5][6]. - Over 80% of asset management products are allocated to fixed-income assets, with significant investments in interbank deposits and certificates of deposit, which totaled 28.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking an 18.9% year-on-year increase [6]. Group 3: Impact on Bank Deposits - The rapid growth of asset management products has altered the structure of bank deposits, with a recent decline in the proportion of household and enterprise deposits and an increase in interbank deposits [7]. - Despite the shift towards wealth management and asset management products, most of the funds are ultimately directed back to the banking system, indicating that the overall liquidity in the financial system remains stable [7][11]. Group 4: Broader Financial Environment - The article emphasizes the need to assess liquidity from a broader perspective, incorporating both bank deposits and asset management products, which reflects a stable growth trend in overall liquidity [10][11]. - The central bank has actively managed liquidity through various tools, ensuring that the banking system's liquidity needs are met, with a net injection of 6 trillion yuan in open market operations in 2025 [11].

过去五年，中国房地产市场经历了一场罕见的深刻调整，房地产在家庭财富中的作用发生本质转变。与 此同时，随着银行利率持续走低，居民理财收益下降，存款"搬家"现象呈加速趋势。 站在资产配置的十字路口，普通人何去何从？当房地产普涨时代落幕，什么样的房产能够穿越周期、实 现保值增值？股市能否接棒楼市，成为居民财富增长的新引擎？在避险情绪中屡创新高的黄金还能涨多 久？ 本期《思路打开》对话中国首席经济学家论坛理事长、广开首席产业研究院院长连平，深入解析中国的 楼市、股市和居民资产配置的逻辑重构。 【对话/连平&王慧】 王慧：连平老师您好，今天想从房地产开始，跟您聊聊中国居民的资产配置问题。过去五年，中国的房 地产经历了一场罕见的深刻调整。2026年中央定调要"着力稳定房地产市场"。这个"稳定"是什么意思？ 是指市场完成探底开始企稳，还是说市场正在以平稳的态势逐步寻底、筑底？ 连平：从物理的角度来看，"稳定"是一种水平运动。从房地产市场本身来看，我认为目前至少应该是结 束或者停止向下的过程，也就是说，要结束探底的过程，然后进入横盘筑底阶段。这可能是"稳定"真实 的含义所在。 现在从成交量、价格、工程推进力度等方面来看，房地 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that technology growth and non-ferrous metals sectors are key drivers for market momentum at the beginning of 2026, with the launch of the Invesco Great Wall Prosperity Driven Fund managed by experienced fund manager Dong Han [1] - Dong Han has 19 years of experience in the securities and fund industry, with over 14 years of investment experience, focusing on sectors such as semiconductors, consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, and cyclical industries [1] - The fund will invest in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, incorporating a floating fee structure linked to excess returns to align the interests of the manager and investors [1] Group 2 - In the short to medium term, the driving force for the equity market's rise will shift from valuation recovery to profit recovery, with a focus on structural performance improvements from breakthroughs in the AI industry and overall economic recovery [2] - Long-term prospects for China's economic structural transformation are significantly improved, which will continue to translate into economic growth momentum and corporate performance [2] - Dong Han is optimistic about the equity market performance in 2026, identifying technology growth as a key theme throughout the year, with a more balanced market style compared to 2025, particularly favoring sectors such as semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, AI computing power, and humanoid robots [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current trend of Chinese residents shifting asset allocation towards the stock market is still in its early stages, with gradual progress primarily through indirect channels such as insurance, private equity funds, and ETFs [1] - Most residents' risk appetite has not significantly increased, and while there are signs of funds moving from deposits to capital markets, the pace is slow. Investors have not yet made large-scale redemptions from bonds or money markets to invest in stocks [1] - In a declining interest rate environment, more investors are seeking ways to enhance returns. Sales of insurance products like participating insurance and traditional life insurance have been strong at the beginning of the year, indicating that insurance funds are indirectly flowing into the A-share market by increasing equity asset allocation [1] Group 2 - There is no one-size-fits-all asset allocation strategy for investors, as each individual's risk preference and capacity differ. A diversified investment approach is recommended [2] - Investors are encouraged to diversify their portfolios across ETFs, public funds, and insurance assets to enhance their ability to respond to market volatility [2]

Group 1 - The demand for asset management and wealth management services in China is significant, with current household assets in stocks and funds accounting for approximately 15%, similar to the level in the United States 30 years ago, indicating potential for continuous incremental funding from households in the future [1] - The brokerage industry is expected to enhance its role in serving the real economy, shifting from a scale-oriented approach to a function-prioritized model, where leading firms may moderately increase leverage while smaller brokerages need to develop differentiated strategies, focusing on boutique investment banking or specialized services [1] - In the insurance sector, a reduction in risk factors is likely to benefit long-term holdings in the CSI 300, CSI Dividend Low Volatility, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board stocks, with improved long-term investment capabilities of insurance companies expected to better leverage patient capital [1] Group 2 - The Securities ETF (512880) tracks the Securities Company Index (399975), which selects listed companies involved in securities brokerage, underwriting, and sponsorship from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of the securities industry [1] - The constituent stocks of the index cover representative enterprises within the industry, adequately reflecting the operational characteristics and development trends of the securities market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of young investors shifting towards stable and low-risk financial products, termed "New Three Golds," reflects a broader change in asset allocation strategies in response to declining deposit rates and a desire for more secure investment options [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Young investors are increasingly favoring diversified asset allocations, moving away from traditional gold jewelry to "New Three Golds," which include money market funds, bond funds, and gold ETFs [3][6]. - As of April, 9.37 million individuals from the post-90s and post-00s generations have adopted the "New Three Golds" strategy on platforms like Alipay [3]. - The shift in investment preferences is driven by a combination of low deposit rates and a growing aversion to investment risks among young people [6]. Group 2: Deposit Flow and Market Dynamics - Recent adjustments in deposit products by banks, including the cancellation of high-interest long-term deposits, indicate a significant change in the banking landscape [4]. - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 23.32 trillion yuan in RMB deposits over the first ten months of the year, with household deposits rising by 11.39 trillion yuan [4]. - The trend of reallocating savings from banks to other assets reflects a broader reconfiguration of household asset management strategies [5]. Group 3: Banking Sector Transformation - The banking industry is undergoing a transformation, shifting from a focus on scale to optimizing structure and enhancing service offerings in response to sustained pressure on net interest margins [7][9]. - Banks are increasingly adopting a customer-centric approach, emphasizing comprehensive financial solutions to retain clients and stabilize funding sources [7]. - The ongoing pressure on net interest margins is pushing banks to diversify into wealth management, investment banking, and non-interest income-generating activities [9].