沪指今天盘中突破3800点。从资金的视角看，不少观点认为，这也与居民储蓄搬家有关。据央行数据， 7月住户存款同比多减7800亿元，非银存款同比多增1.39万亿元。记者注意到，至少有10家券商发布研 报认为，7月金融数据显示居民"存款搬家"或已开始，在2025年下半年尤为明显，居民存款搬家的前提 是权益市场基本面预期改善。 整体来看，这些研究观点核心呈现了五点内容。 一是为什么存款搬家？存款利率持续下行的当下，存款搬家是大势所趋，核心在于资本市场的突出表 现。 存款搬家并非新鲜事，而是居民资产配置随市场环境变化的常态表现。券商研报普遍认为，7月住户存 款减少的核心原因，是资金从银行体系转向非银金融机构，即当居民将存款转入证券账户、购买基金或 银行理财时，银行"住户存款"科目下降，"非银金融机构存款"则相应增加，形成典型的"跷跷板效应"。 追溯历史，2005年以来我国已出现过五次明显的居民存款搬家，分别是2006-2007年、2009年、2012- 2015年、2021年，以及当前的2024-2025年。国信证券通过梳理历轮数据发现，低利率是推动存款搬家 的重要因素，但资本市场表现才是核心驱动力。 从当前环境看， ...

Group 1 - The report identifies the conditions necessary for a "slow bull market," emphasizing that a moderate increase in both volume and price is essential rather than high growth and low inflation as an ideal combination [4] - The common characteristics of slow bull markets in the US, India, and Japan include long holding periods for residents' stock assets and low turnover rates, with companies injecting funds into the market through stable dividends and buybacks exceeding IPOs and other financing methods [4][5] - The US stock market has shown a significant slow bull trend since 2013, with the S&P 500 index rising from approximately 1400 points in 2000 to 6380 points by August 2025, reflecting an annualized growth rate of about 8% [5] Group 2 - The Indian Sensex index has demonstrated extreme slow bull characteristics, starting from 3000 points in 2002 and reaching 80687 points by August 2025, resulting in a cumulative increase of 26 times and an annualized return of 15% [6] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index has also experienced a slow bull market since 2014, rising from 16000 points to 42050 points by August 2025, with an 11-year increase of 163% [6] - Economic growth rates during the slow bull periods show that India had the highest real GDP growth at 6.91% and nominal GDP growth at 12.39%, while the US and Japan had lower growth rates, indicating that high economic growth is not the sole necessary condition for a long bull market [8][10] Group 3 - The report highlights that inflation levels during slow bull markets vary, with India experiencing higher inflation rates compared to the US and Japan, suggesting that moderate inflation can be beneficial for stock markets [14] - The transition from a financing market to an investment market is crucial for the prosperity of long-term slow bull markets, with earnings growth and dividend income becoming increasingly significant over time [21][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of residents' asset allocation preferences and willingness to invest in stocks, noting that these factors are closely linked to the performance of stock markets in developed economies like the US and Japan [15][18]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3674.4 points, reaching a new high since December 2021 [1] - The "924 market" on October 8, 2024, saw the index open up 10.13% and close at 3674.4 points, marking a historic peak driven by strong policy support [3] Policy Impact - A series of robust policies were introduced by the central bank, financial regulators, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission on September 24, which contributed to the market rally [3] - The State Council emphasized measures to boost the capital market and guide long-term funds into the market during a press conference on October 8 [3] Market Trends - The research team believes that the A-share market has entered its fifth bull market, characterized as a "systematic slow bull," with a shift in asset allocation towards equity assets by residents [5] - The long-term target for the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to exceed the 3700-point mark [5] Sector Performance - The financial sector remains a key driver of the index's strength, with a notable performance from brokerage firms, while the banking sector has seen a pullback [6] - Leading brokerages such as Guosheng Securities and Changcheng Securities have shown significant gains [6] Investment Opportunities - Recent trends indicate three main drivers for the brokerage industry: an increase in T0 client numbers, steady growth in client margin scales, and a noticeable increase in leverage among existing clients [10] - The research team anticipates that the equity allocation by insurance funds, wealth management, and public offerings will likely rebound, opening growth opportunities for brokerage services [10] Large-cap Stocks - Eight large-cap stocks, including Industrial Fulian and Zijin Mining, have reached historical highs, indicating strong performance in the market [11] - The market has shown a trend where large-cap stocks outperform smaller indices, likely due to institutional funds entering the market [11] Future Outlook - The research team predicts that the A-share market will continue to experience a fluctuating upward trend, with a focus on large financial stocks and large-cap companies as potential investment targets [12]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index opened strong on August 13, breaking the previous year's high of 3674.40 points, reaching a new high since December 2021 at 3680.47 points [1][3] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose over 1%, while the ChiNext Index increased by more than 2% [3] Market Sentiment and Drivers - Guojin Securities noted that the bullish market atmosphere in July was driven by a combination of loose liquidity and positive policy expectations, with retail investors being the core driving force [4] - Foreign capital showed signs of recovery, while institutional fund flows were mixed, and the support from state-owned funds weakened [4] - Huaxi Securities emphasized that the current upward trend in the A-share market is supported by various sources of incremental funds, including insurance, pension funds, public and private equity funds, and retail investor participation [4] Economic Indicators - The M1-M2 year-on-year growth rate gap has been narrowing, indicating an increase in the activation of funds and a marginal recovery in consumer and investment willingness among residents [4] - The recent margin trading balance has reached a ten-year high, reflecting a continuous rise in risk appetite among individual investors [4] Sector Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be a focal point, with technology growth remaining a key policy theme for an extended period [4] - Zhongtai Securities highlighted that major indices are performing healthily, with a reasonable relationship between volume and price, and maintained an optimistic outlook due to improving domestic economic expectations and ongoing international liquidity easing [5] - Attention is recommended on sectors such as photovoltaic and military industries, as well as precious metals that may benefit from international liquidity conditions [5]

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant shift in Chinese residents' wealth allocation, driven by declining deposit rates and a cooling real estate market, leading to increased investment in bank wealth management and public funds [1][6] Group 1: Asset Management Market Overview - As of the end of 2024, the global asset management market is projected to reach $128 trillion, a 12% increase from the beginning of the year, marking a historical high [1] - China's asset management market is expected to reach ¥154 trillion, growing by 10% year-on-year, also a historical high [1] - Personal funds contributed ¥54.5 trillion to the asset management market in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [1] Group 2: Changes in Resident Wealth Allocation - The growth of financial assets among Chinese residents has surpassed that of non-financial assets for the first time since 2005, with financial assets contributing 104% to total asset growth in 2024 [3] - Financial assets now account for 47.6% of total resident assets, the highest since 2005, and an increase of 6.3 percentage points since 2018 [3] - The proportion of time deposits among financial assets is 33.6%, significantly higher than the U.S. and Japan, indicating a low-risk preference among Chinese residents [3] Group 3: Investment Behavior and Risk Appetite - The report suggests that low interest rates may lead to an increase in residents' allocation to riskier financial assets, as seen in other countries [6] - Despite the low interest rate environment, Japanese residents have shown a strong preference for cash and demand deposits, which may not be the case for Chinese residents [4][5] - A survey indicates that 24.9% of residents prefer to consume more, while 61.4% prefer to save, and 13.6% are inclined to invest, with a notable increase in those favoring stock investments [6][7]

Core Insights - The report by Everbright Wealth highlights a significant shift in the asset allocation behavior of Chinese residents, with financial assets increasingly contributing to overall asset growth [1] - Since 2018, the contribution of financial assets has been on the rise, surpassing non-financial assets for the first time in 2024, indicating a growing trend towards capital market investments [1] Financial Asset Contribution - The contribution of financial assets to the growth of residents' assets has been steadily increasing, reaching 54.6% in 2021 and projected to rise to 104% in 2024, with non-financial assets contributing negatively [1] - This marks the first time since 2005 that the contribution of financial assets has exceeded 100% [1] Asset Structure Changes - In terms of stock, the proportion of financial assets in residents' total assets is expected to reach a peak of 47.6% in 2024, an increase of 6.3 percentage points compared to 2018 [1]