炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：六里投资报 1月11日，著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灏，在2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会中，发表了以"展 望2026，持而盈之"为题的演讲。 洪灏在演讲中指出，美联储于1月继续降息是大概率事件。 他认为，当前美国短端流动性趋于紧张， 回购利率甚至能高于基准利率，迫使美联储持续扩表并降息。 与此同时，他提出美国远期通胀预期难以回落； 洪灝强调，在全球流动性持续宽松的背景下，以黄金为"锚"的资产类别将普遍受益。 同时，他判断2026年可能处于股市回报率大周期的顶部阶段， 伴随全球央行同步宽松，大概率会诞生一个伟大的泡沫； 如果美联储在通胀预期仍高时坚持降息，将削弱美元信用，推动贵金属价格上涨。 从趋势线来看，黄金处于一个相对来说公允的估值，4500左右。 但是，在新的信用体系里，黄金是一切估值的"锚"。 至于目标价，洪灏表示"杯子有多深，目标就有多高"，白银显然也并没有走完，这与他此前的观点也完 全一致。 虽然在银价冲上80美元时，他曾提示可以阶段性获利了结， 但仍然看好其中期上涨空间，事实上，白银在此后也出现不小的价格波动。具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market paradigm is shifting from "Anything But Bonds" (ABB) to "Anything But The Dollar" (ABD), driven by the peak in U.S. nominal GDP growth, leading to a weaker dollar and a return of the bond bull market [1][3][12] Group 1: Market Trends - The anticipated end of the ABB trading logic will occur as nominal GDP growth in the U.S. is expected to peak in 2025, slowing from 6% to 4% due to weakening government spending and labor market [9][12] - Major asset performance has shown significant divergence this year, with gold leading at a 38% increase, while the dollar and oil have declined by 10% and 13% respectively, supporting the view of a weakening dollar [5][12] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The new investment theme for 2025 is ABD, suggesting a focus on non-dollar assets as the dollar weakens and fiscal expansion occurs in Europe and Asia [13] - Gold is highlighted as a strategic asset for hedging against risks of government instability and dollar depreciation, with expectations for further price increases [13] Group 3: AI Bubble and Credit Market - The capital expenditure for AI is rapidly increasing, with spending on data centers rising from 35% to 72% of cash flow, indicating a growing reliance on debt financing [14][16] - The credit spread in the tech sector is at its narrowest since 1997, suggesting a lack of concern among credit investors regarding the risks associated with the AI sector [16] Group 4: Policy, Profits, and Politics - The market perceives the Fed's rate cuts as preemptive, which has led to a narrowing of credit spreads and a rise in interest-sensitive stocks, but caution is advised if certain market indicators reverse [19] - Weak labor market conditions are being offset by a strong wealth effect, with significant increases in household equity wealth projected for 2024 and 2025 [20] - Rising populism poses social risks in the U.S., with high inflation and unemployment potentially leading to policies reminiscent of the early 1970s, which could further support gold and cryptocurrency prices [21]