来源：首席经济学家论坛 洪灏系莲华资管首席投资官，中国首席经济学家论坛理 1月11日，著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，在2026中国首席经济学家论坛年会中，发表了以"展 望2026，持而盈之"为题的演讲。 洪灝在演讲中指出，美联储于1月继续降息是大概率事件。 他认为，当前美国短端流动性趋于紧张， 回购利率甚至能高于基准利率，迫使美联储持续扩表并降息。 与此同时，他提出美国远期通胀预期难以回落； 如果美联储在通胀预期仍高时坚持降息，将削弱美元信用，推动贵金属价格上涨。 从趋势线来看，黄金处于一个相对来说公允的估值，4500左右。 但是，在新的信用体系里，黄金是一切估值的"锚"。 至于目标价，洪灝表示"杯子有多深，目标就有多高"，白银显然也并没有走完，这与他此前的观点也完 全一致。 虽然在银价冲上80美元时，他曾提示可以阶段性获利了结，但仍然看好其中期上涨空间，事实上，白银 在此后也出现不小的价格波动。具体可点此查看 他的全球流动性指标模型显示，全球流动性条件在不断上升，而流动性指标领先基本面变化6-12个月。 洪灝强调，在全球流动性持续宽松的背景下，以黄金为"锚"的资产类别将普遍受益。 同时，他判断2026 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates in January 2026, which is expected to impact liquidity and asset prices significantly [3][19]. - The current tightening of short-term liquidity in the U.S. is evident, with repo rates exceeding the benchmark rate, prompting the Fed to expand its balance sheet and lower rates [4][18]. - Forward inflation expectations in the U.S. are unlikely to decline, and if the Fed persists in lowering rates amidst high inflation expectations, it could weaken the dollar's credibility and drive up precious metal prices [5][27]. Group 2 - Gold is currently viewed as fairly valued at around $4,500 per ounce, serving as an anchor for all valuations in a new credit system [6][25][26]. - The price of silver is expected to continue rising, with the potential for significant upward movement as it has not yet reached its peak [8][31]. - Global liquidity conditions are on the rise, which is anticipated to benefit asset classes anchored by gold [10][11][38]. Group 3 - The year 2026 is predicted to be at the peak of a long-term cycle for stock market returns, likely leading to the creation of a significant bubble, presenting investment opportunities [12][46][53]. - The current environment is favorable for risk investments, with a recovery in market sentiment and strong performance in technology and industrial metal sectors [54][56]. - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate significantly, with its long-term undervaluation providing a solid foundation for this trend [63][70].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for 2026, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates, which could lead to a significant market bubble and opportunities for investors [5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in January, driven by tightening short-term liquidity and rising repo rates exceeding the benchmark rate [5][9][10]. - The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk from a peak of $9.1 trillion to just over $6 trillion, impacting the economy, particularly low-income groups, despite rising S&P 500 earnings [10][12]. - The article highlights that the U.S. forward inflation expectations are unlikely to decrease, which could weaken the dollar's credibility and drive up precious metal prices [14][17]. Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - Gold is currently viewed as a fair valuation at around $4,500 per ounce, serving as an anchor for all valuations in a new credit system [18][22]. - The article suggests that silver has not yet reached its peak, with a potential upward trajectory as indicated by its long-term "cup and handle" pattern [23][26]. - The global liquidity conditions are improving, which historically leads to asset price increases, particularly for precious metals [28][31]. Group 3: Market Cycles and Investment Opportunities - The article posits that 2026 may be at the peak of a long-term market cycle, presenting opportunities for significant asset price increases, including in industrial metals and new asset classes like cryptocurrencies [32][36]. - The current environment is characterized by abundant liquidity, which is favorable for risk investments, and the market sentiment is showing signs of recovery [37][39]. - The article concludes that the trends initiated at the end of last year, including the rise of industrial commodities, gold, silver, and Chinese tech stocks, are expected to continue into this year [45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates in January, driven by tightening short-term liquidity in the U.S. and high repo rates exceeding benchmark rates, which will compel the Fed to expand its balance sheet and cut rates [1] - The speaker, Hong Hao, suggests that the long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. are unlikely to decline, and if the Fed persists in lowering rates while inflation expectations remain high, it could weaken the dollar's credibility and drive up precious metal prices [1] - Gold is currently viewed as fairly valued around 4500, and in the new credit system, it serves as an "anchor" for all valuations, with silver also expected to have further upside potential [1] Group 2 - In a recent Bloomberg interview, Hong Hao expressed optimism about asset performance in a liquidity-rich environment, indicating a preference for all asset classes [2] - He previously identified 4000 points as a potential support level for the market, and as of the beginning of the year, the market has quickly risen to 4100 points [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates in January, which is expected to impact liquidity and inflation expectations in the U.S. economy [2][54] - The current short-term liquidity in the U.S. is tightening, with repo rates exceeding the benchmark rate, prompting the Fed to expand its balance sheet and lower rates [3][11] - Forward inflation expectations in the U.S. are unlikely to decrease, and if the Fed persists in lowering rates while inflation expectations remain high, it will weaken the dollar's credibility and drive up precious metal prices [4][23] Group 2 - Gold is currently viewed as fairly valued at around $4,500 per ounce, and in the new credit system, gold serves as the "anchor" for all valuations [5][31] - The price target for gold is suggested to be high, with the analogy that "the deeper the cup, the higher the target," indicating that silver has not yet reached its peak [6][30] - The global liquidity conditions are continuously improving, with liquidity indicators leading fundamental changes by 6-12 months, suggesting that asset classes anchored by gold will benefit [7][40] Group 3 - The year 2026 is anticipated to be at the peak of a major cycle for stock market returns, with synchronized easing from global central banks likely to create a significant bubble, presenting an opportunity for investors [8][55] - In a recent interview, it was noted that the market sentiment is improving, with strong performances in technology and industrial metal sectors, indicating signs of cyclical recovery [49][100] - The Chinese yuan is expected to appreciate significantly, with the potential for further gains as the currency has been undervalued in recent years [108][111]