Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price indices for March 2026, including the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) price index, the national CCER price index, and the Chinese Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) price index [1] CEA and CCER Price Indices - The expected buy price for the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) in March 2026 is 74.73 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 82.83 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 72.78 CNY/ton. The buy price index increased by 3.12%, while the sell price index decreased by 1.03%, and the midpoint price index fell by 6.80% [2][3] - For December 2026, the expected buy price for CEA is 84.47 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 94.25 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 89.36 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 158.04, and the sell price index is 161.77, with a midpoint price index of 159.99 [2][3] - The expected buy price for the national certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) in March 2026 is 76.40 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 84.80 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 80.60 CNY/ton. The buy price index rose by 6.41%, the sell price index increased by 1.19%, and the midpoint price index grew by 3.60% [2][3] GEC Price Indices - The expected prices for the three types of domestic green certificates (GEC) for 2025 production are as follows: centralized project price is 7.32 CNY/certificate (index 133.09), distributed project price is 7.15 CNY/certificate (index 145.07), and biomass power generation price is 6.85 CNY/certificate (index 132.75) [4][5] - The price trends for the three types of green certificates show divergence, with the distributed project certificates continuing to rise by 1.4%, while centralized and biomass project certificates experienced a decline [4] Carbon Market Overview - In February, the national carbon market exhibited a stable price with reduced trading volume. The average closing price for CEA was 79.57 CNY/ton, up approximately 2.33% from January's average of 77.76 CNY/ton. The market showed high-level fluctuations, with prices ranging between 76 and 81 CNY/ton [6] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in February was 24.57 million tons, a significant decrease of about 55% compared to January's 54.68 million tons. Despite the overall reduction in trading volume, there were days with higher trading volumes, indicating ongoing adjustments by companies [6] Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market in February showed a general decline in trading volumes, with the EU carbon market experiencing a 37.15% increase in daily trading volume, while the UK and Korea markets saw declines of 25.74% and 3.65%, respectively [7] - Price trends varied across carbon markets, with the EU market's price dropping from 96.66 USD/ton to 82.25 USD/ton (a cumulative decrease of 14.91%), while the Korean market saw an increase from 8.47 USD/ton to 8.89 USD/ton (a cumulative increase of 4.98%) [8]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for February 2026, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] CEA and CCER Price Expectations - The expected buy price for CEA in February 2026 is 72.47 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.69 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint of 78.09 CNY/ton; the buy price index increased by 9.59% to 181.18, and the sell price index rose by 12.88% to 188.83, with a midpoint index increase of 11.35% to 185.22 [2] - For December 2026, the expected buy price for CEA is 81.66 CNY/ton, sell price is 94.90 CNY/ton, and midpoint is 88.28 CNY/ton; the buy price index is 152.78, and the sell price index is 162.89, with a midpoint index of 158.05 [2] - The expected buy price for CCER in February 2026 is 71.80 CNY/ton, sell price is 83.80 CNY/ton, and midpoint is 77.80 CNY/ton; the buy price index increased by 8.13% to 180.49, and the sell price index rose by 7.99% to 201.59, with a midpoint index increase of 8.06% to 191.27 [2] GEC Price Index Surge - The price for green certificates from centralized projects is expected to be 7.38 CNY/unit, with a price index of 134.18; for distributed projects, the price is 7.05 CNY/unit with an index of 143.04; and for biomass power generation, the price is 7.04 CNY/unit with an index of 136.43 [3] - Compared to January 2026, the prices for all three types of green certificates have significantly increased, with biomass power generation certificates seeing the largest increase of 53% [3] January Carbon Market Overview - In January, the average closing price for CEA was 77.54 CNY/ton, a significant increase of approximately 22.55% from December 2025's average closing price of 63.27 CNY/ton; the market exhibited high volatility with daily fluctuations exceeding 5% [3] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in January was 62.97 million tons, a decrease of about 70% from December's 205.14 million tons, indicating reduced market activity post-compliance [3] - Despite the overall contraction in trading volume, there were instances of increased trading, such as a spike to 337 million tons on January 7, reflecting ongoing adjustments by institutions and enterprises [3] Global Carbon Market Trends - Globally, carbon market trading volumes decreased in January, with notable declines in the UK and South Korea; the EU carbon market saw a 9.25% drop in average daily trading volume [4] - Overall, carbon prices across various markets showed stable increases, except for New Zealand, which experienced a decline; the EU carbon market price rose from 101.19 USD/ton to 101.53 USD/ton, a 0.34% increase [5]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index results for January 2026, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] CEA and CCER Price Summary - The expected buy price for CEA in January 2026 is 66.13 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 74.14 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint of 70.13 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 165.33, and the sell price index is 167.28, with a midpoint index of 166.34 [2] - For December 2026, the expected buy price for CEA is 70.32 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 85.36 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint of 77.84 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 131.56, and the sell price index is 146.52, with a midpoint index of 139.36 [2] - The expected buy price for CCER in January 2026 is 66.40 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 77.60 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint of 72.00 CNY/ton. The buy price index increased by 12.54% to 166.92, and the sell price index increased by 11.81% to 186.67, with a midpoint index increase of 12.15% to 177.01 [2] GEC Price Index Summary - The price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 production is expected to be 5.93 CNY/unit, with a price index of 107.82. For distributed projects, the price is 5.61 CNY/unit (index 113.83), and for biomass power generation, the price is 4.6 CNY/unit (index 89.15). All three categories saw price increases exceeding 25%, with centralized projects showing the highest increase [3] National Carbon Market Activity - In December, the average closing price for CEA was 61.83 CNY/ton, up approximately 3.27% from November's average of 59.87 CNY/ton. The carbon price showed a trend of stabilization followed by a significant rise, reaching above 70 CNY/ton after eight consecutive days of increases [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in December was 201.28 million tons, down 15.7% from November's 238.77 million tons. Despite the decrease, the market remained active, with half of the trading days exceeding 2 million tons, peaking at 357.39 million tons on December 23 [4] Global Carbon Market Overview - The global carbon market in December showed varied trends, with the EU and Korean markets experiencing a recovery, while the UK market saw a significant decline. The EU's average daily trading volume increased by 2.19%, while the UK's dropped by 90.39% [5] - The EU carbon market's price rose from 96.24 USD/ton to 101.36 USD/ton, a cumulative increase of 5.31%. The UK market's price increased from 75.01 USD/ton to 87.42 USD/ton, a cumulative increase of 16.55%. In contrast, the Korean market's price fell from 7.35 USD/ton to 6.90 USD/ton, a cumulative decrease of 6.12% [6]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price indices for November 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] CEA and CCER Price Indices - The expected buying price for CEA in November 2025 is 47.59 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 55.42 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 51.51 CNY/ton; the buying price index decreased by 14.08% and the selling price index decreased by 8.59% [2] - The expected buying price for CCER in November 2025 is 59.67 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 68.17 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 63.92 CNY/ton; the buying price index decreased by 13.52% and the selling price index decreased by 11.27% [2] GEC Price Indices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2024 is 2.94 CNY/unit, while for distributed projects it is 2.26 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation it is 1.31 CNY/unit; all show a decline compared to October 2025 [3] - For 2025, the expected price for centralized projects is 4.24 CNY/unit, for distributed projects it is 3.65 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation it is 3.81 CNY/unit, with price differences among types of green certificates widening [3] October Market Performance - In October, the average closing price for CEA was 54.76 CNY/ton, down 12.4% from September's average of 62.51 CNY/ton; the market showed a significant drop followed by a slight rebound [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in October was 172.14 million tons, an increase of 15.81% compared to September's 148.64 million tons, indicating active trading as the compliance period approaches [4] Global Carbon Market Overview - The global carbon market saw an overall increase in trading volume in October, with the EU carbon market's average daily trading volume rising by 7.91% and the UK market by 34.43%, while the Korean market saw a slight decline of 1.06% [5] - Price movements varied across global markets, with the EU carbon market price increasing by 1.64%, while the UK and Korean markets experienced declines of 0.82% and 3.30%, respectively [6]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center has released the carbon price index results for October 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, CCER prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] Carbon Emission Allowance Prices - The expected buy price for the national CEA in October 2025 is 55.39 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 60.63 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 58.00 CNY/ton; the buy price index decreased by 19.09% to 138.48, while the sell price index fell by 16.23% to 136.80, and the midpoint price index dropped by 17.64% to 137.57 [2] - For December 2025, the expected buy price for the national CEA is 62.10 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 70.45 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 66.28 CNY/ton; the buy price index is 116.18 and the sell price index is 120.92 [2] CCER Prices - The expected buy price for the CCER in October 2025 is 69.00 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 76.83 CNY/ton, and a midpoint price of 72.92 CNY/ton; the buy price index decreased by 7.75% to 173.45, while the sell price index fell by 9.29% to 184.82, and the midpoint price index dropped by 8.57% to 179.27 [2] Green Electricity Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 5.45 CNY/unit, with a price index of 99.09; for distributed projects, the price is 5.20 CNY/unit with a price index of 105.51; and for biomass power generation, the price is 5.55 CNY/unit with a price index of 107.56 [3] - Compared to September 2025, the prices for most green certificates have adjusted downwards, except for the centralized project green certificates from 2024 [3] Market Performance - In September, the average closing price for CEA was 62.94 CNY/ton, a significant decrease of 11.5% from August's average of 71.12 CNY/ton; the carbon price showed a downward trend, dropping from 69.41 CNY/ton at the beginning of the month to 59.16 CNY/ton by the end [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in September was 136.78 million tons, an increase of approximately 90% compared to August's 71.95 million tons, indicating heightened market activity [4] - The peak trading volume occurred on September 26, reaching 318.29 million tons, reflecting increased trading enthusiasm as the compliance period approached [4]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for August 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, CCER prices, and GEC prices [1][2]. Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Prices - The expected buy price for the CEA in August 2025 is 71.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 76.04 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 73.65 CNY/ton. The buy price index increased by 0.83% to 178.13, while the sell price index decreased by 0.82% to 171.57 [2][3]. - For December 2025, the expected buy price is 72.04 CNY/ton, sell price is 79.61 CNY/ton, and midpoint price is 75.82 CNY/ton. The buy price index is 134.78, and the sell price index is 136.65 [2][3]. Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Prices - The expected buy price for CCER in August 2025 is 76.25 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 83.59 CNY/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 79.91 CNY/ton. The buy price index rose by 2.49% to 191.68, and the sell price index increased by 3.45% to 201.08 [2][3]. Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) Prices - The expected prices for GECs in August 2025 show a divergence in trends. For 2024 production, centralized project GECs are priced at 3.50 CNY/unit, distributed project GECs at 3.36 CNY/unit, and biomass power generation GECs at 3.66 CNY/unit. For 2025 production, prices are 7.82 CNY/unit for centralized projects, 6.94 CNY/unit for distributed projects, and 6.77 CNY/unit for biomass [4][5]. Market Trends - In July, the average closing price for CEA was 73.64 CNY/ton, up approximately 3% from June's average of 71.51 CNY/ton. However, the trading volume decreased by 35.75% to an average of 51.03 million tons compared to June [6]. - The global carbon market showed mixed trends, with the EU carbon market's average price rising slightly, while the UK market saw a significant drop in trading volume [9].

Group 1: Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) and Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Price Indices - The expected buy price for CEA in June 2025 is 68.36 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 74.78 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 71.57 CNY/ton. The buy price index decreased by 12.77%, and the sell price index decreased by 9.54% [2] - The expected buy price for CCER in June 2025 is 82.84 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 92.74 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 87.79 CNY/ton. The buy price index decreased by 3.37%, and the sell price index decreased by 6.18% [2] Group 2: Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) Price Indices - The price indices for GECs for 2024 and 2025 show an overall increase. The expected price for centralized projects in 2025 is 6.85 CNY/unit, with a price index of 124.55, while for distributed projects, it is 6.40 CNY/unit with a price index of 129.86 [3] - The price for biomass power generation GEC in 2025 is expected to be 6.16 CNY/unit, with a price index of 119.43. The price increases for 2025 production GECs are significantly higher than those for 2024 production [3] Group 3: Market Activity and Regulatory Developments - In May, the average closing price for CEA was 70.30 CNY/ton, down approximately 13% from April's average of 80.87 CNY/ton. The trading volume increased significantly, with an average daily transaction volume of 57.97 million tons, doubling from April [5] - The draft of the Ecological Environment Law, which includes provisions for establishing a carbon market trading system, is currently under review. This law aims to strengthen the control of greenhouse gas emissions and support the operation of carbon markets [6][7] Group 4: Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market showed mixed trends in May, with varying transaction volumes across different markets. The EU carbon market saw a 24.11% decrease in average daily transaction volume, while the UK market increased by 5.03% [8] - Carbon prices in major global markets generally increased, with the EU market rising by 9.44%, the UK market by 14.43%, and the Korean market by 4.71% [8]