Core Viewpoint - The issuance of the "Opinions on Promoting Green and Low-Carbon Transition and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction" marks a new phase in China's carbon market development, aiming to enhance the green and low-carbon development mechanism and better utilize market mechanisms [1] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - The carbon market serves as a crucial policy tool for addressing climate change and accelerating the green transition of the economy and society [2] - China has established the largest national carbon emissions trading market globally, along with a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market, creating a unique carbon market system [2][3] - The carbon price acts as a "barometer" reflecting the scarcity of carbon emissions resources, guiding capital flow towards low-carbon sectors and technologies [2][3] Group 2: Mechanisms and Flexibility - The carbon market provides a flexible mechanism for achieving greenhouse gas control targets at lower costs, allowing companies to choose compliance paths [3] - The national carbon emissions trading market will accelerate the transition to clean energy in key industries such as electricity, metallurgy, and cement, promoting decarbonization across supply chains [3] Group 3: Market Expansion and Coverage - The national carbon market is expected to cover approximately 70% of the total carbon emissions in major industries like electricity, steel, and cement, driving the development of new green market competitiveness [3] - The construction of a unified national carbon market requires standardized quota management, trading, regulation, and data management to enhance resource allocation efficiency [4] Group 4: Voluntary Emission Reduction Market - The national voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market is a vital component of the carbon market system, aimed at creating significant green market opportunities and supporting national contributions to global climate governance [5] - As of now, the voluntary reduction trading market has registered 5,635 accounts and 47 projects, with 23 projects officially registered, amounting to approximately 9.48 million tons of CO2 equivalent verified reductions [5][6] Group 5: Future Directions - The development of the voluntary reduction trading market is still in its early stages, with plans to focus on key technologies for carbon peak and neutrality, and to enrich market products and participants [6]

Group 1: Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) and Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Price Indices - The expected buy price for CEA in June 2025 is 68.36 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 74.78 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 71.57 CNY/ton. The buy price index decreased by 12.77%, and the sell price index decreased by 9.54% [2] - The expected buy price for CCER in June 2025 is 82.84 CNY/ton, with a sell price of 92.74 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 87.79 CNY/ton. The buy price index decreased by 3.37%, and the sell price index decreased by 6.18% [2] Group 2: Green Electricity Certificate (GEC) Price Indices - The price indices for GECs for 2024 and 2025 show an overall increase. The expected price for centralized projects in 2025 is 6.85 CNY/unit, with a price index of 124.55, while for distributed projects, it is 6.40 CNY/unit with a price index of 129.86 [3] - The price for biomass power generation GEC in 2025 is expected to be 6.16 CNY/unit, with a price index of 119.43. The price increases for 2025 production GECs are significantly higher than those for 2024 production [3] Group 3: Market Activity and Regulatory Developments - In May, the average closing price for CEA was 70.30 CNY/ton, down approximately 13% from April's average of 80.87 CNY/ton. The trading volume increased significantly, with an average daily transaction volume of 57.97 million tons, doubling from April [5] - The draft of the Ecological Environment Law, which includes provisions for establishing a carbon market trading system, is currently under review. This law aims to strengthen the control of greenhouse gas emissions and support the operation of carbon markets [6][7] Group 4: Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market showed mixed trends in May, with varying transaction volumes across different markets. The EU carbon market saw a 24.11% decrease in average daily transaction volume, while the UK market increased by 5.03% [8] - Carbon prices in major global markets generally increased, with the EU market rising by 9.44%, the UK market by 14.43%, and the Korean market by 4.71% [8]