人民财讯12月26日电，2025年11月，国家能源局核发绿证2.58亿个，涉及可再生能源发电项目50.97万 个，其中可交易绿证1.50亿个，占比58.25%。本期核发2025年10月可再生能源电量对应绿证2.25亿个， 占比87.17%。2025年1—11月，国家能源局共计核发绿证27.36亿个，其中可交易绿证17.43亿个。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing importance of ESG performance in capital markets, influencing investors' decisions on stock holdings [1] - The concept of "going global" is emphasized, with ESG becoming a critical factor for Chinese companies expanding overseas [1][2] - Companies face compliance and disclosure pressures related to ESG when entering international markets, particularly in the EU [1][3] Group 1: ESG and International Expansion - ESG is becoming a significant consideration for Chinese companies as they navigate international markets, with over 2,000 companies assisted by Deloitte in expanding across 96 overseas markets [1] - The challenges faced by companies include not only ESG compliance but also the need to integrate local sustainable development requirements into their strategic planning [3] - The financing process for projects, especially in renewable energy, is heavily influenced by ESG standards set by multilateral banks, which can impact project timelines and costs [2] Group 2: Carbon Market and Green Energy - The global carbon market is still fragmented, with ongoing efforts to establish a unified trading system, highlighting the need for international cooperation [3] - Deloitte China has committed to carbon neutrality by purchasing renewable energy certificates, achieving 100% renewable energy usage in its offices [4] - The use of green electricity is expected to increase, with companies primarily acquiring it through green certificates, reflecting their commitment to environmental responsibility [4]

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace Development - The National Space Administration has issued an action plan to promote high-quality and safe development of the commercial aerospace industry, aiming to achieve significant growth in industry scale and innovation by 2027 [1] Group 2: Data Trading and Utilization - The National Bureau of Statistics supports the establishment of a comprehensive service system for data trading, emphasizing the importance of data exchanges in enhancing market positioning and service capabilities [1] Group 3: Renewable Energy Certificates - In the first ten months of the year, China issued a total of 2.478 billion green certificates, with 1.592 billion being tradable, indicating a robust growth in renewable energy projects [1] Group 4: Power Market Transactions - In October 2025, the total electricity market transaction volume reached 563.8 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, with a cumulative total of 5,492 billion kilowatt-hours for the first ten months, up 7.9% year-on-year [1] Group 5: Aviation Industry Growth - In October, China's international air passenger and cargo transport volumes both saw a year-on-year increase of over 20%, with cargo transport volume exceeding 900,000 tons for the first time in history [1] Group 6: Huawei's Product Launch - Huawei launched the Mate 80 series and Mate X7 foldable phone, with the number of Harmony OS devices surpassing 27 million, indicating steady growth in user adoption [1] Group 7: Alibaba's Financial Performance - Alibaba reported a total revenue of 247.795 billion yuan for Q2 of fiscal year 2026, a year-on-year increase of 5%, with its cloud intelligence group revenue growing by 34% [1] Group 8: NIO's Delivery and Revenue Growth - NIO's Q3 2025 vehicle deliveries reached 87,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%, with total revenue of 21.794 billion yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year [1]

Group 1: Zero Carbon Park Development - The company is aligning its strategy with national policies supporting zero carbon park development, transitioning from "investment holding" to "investment holding + high-end services" [2][3] - A recent product launch introduced a comprehensive solution for zero carbon parks, featuring 40 high-value products across six series, marking a shift from project-based services to platform-based solutions [2][3] Group 2: New Business Developments - The company has obtained electricity trading qualifications in five southern provinces, with ongoing trading in Guangdong, projecting a stable operation and profitability in electricity trading by the end of 2025 [3][4] - The virtual power plant initiative has registered as one of the first ten operators in Guangdong, aggregating 146 MW capacity and achieving effective load responses totaling approximately 16 MWh [3][4] Group 3: Service and Energy Efficiency Initiatives - The company is advancing its "service doubling" and "energy efficiency doubling" initiatives, with new contracts in engineering and digital services amounting to approximately 493 million yuan [5][6] - The company has expanded its energy efficiency services, covering an additional 3.11 million square meters in 2023, focusing on high-quality clients in public institutions and hospitals [5][6] Group 4: Financial Performance and Investment Strategy - The company targets an internal rate of return of around 6% for investment projects, with flexibility for high-quality clients and demonstration projects [6][7] - The average financing cost for the company is approximately 2.65% for the first three quarters of 2025, benefiting from supportive carbon reduction policies [6][7] Group 5: Shareholder Returns and Capital Structure - The company plans to balance shareholder returns with business transformation needs, aiming for a cash dividend of no less than 30% of distributable profits annually [7][8] - The upcoming stock issuance aims to raise up to 2 billion yuan, with 1.6 billion yuan allocated for energy efficiency projects, enhancing the company's financial foundation for sustainable growth [8][9]

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price indices for November 2025, including national carbon emission allowance (CEA) prices, certified voluntary emission reduction (CCER) prices, and green electricity certificate (GEC) prices [1] CEA and CCER Price Indices - The expected buying price for CEA in November 2025 is 47.59 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 55.42 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 51.51 CNY/ton; the buying price index decreased by 14.08% and the selling price index decreased by 8.59% [2] - The expected buying price for CCER in November 2025 is 59.67 CNY/ton, with a selling price of 68.17 CNY/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 63.92 CNY/ton; the buying price index decreased by 13.52% and the selling price index decreased by 11.27% [2] GEC Price Indices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2024 is 2.94 CNY/unit, while for distributed projects it is 2.26 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation it is 1.31 CNY/unit; all show a decline compared to October 2025 [3] - For 2025, the expected price for centralized projects is 4.24 CNY/unit, for distributed projects it is 3.65 CNY/unit, and for biomass power generation it is 3.81 CNY/unit, with price differences among types of green certificates widening [3] October Market Performance - In October, the average closing price for CEA was 54.76 CNY/ton, down 12.4% from September's average of 62.51 CNY/ton; the market showed a significant drop followed by a slight rebound [4] - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances in October was 172.14 million tons, an increase of 15.81% compared to September's 148.64 million tons, indicating active trading as the compliance period approaches [4] Global Carbon Market Overview - The global carbon market saw an overall increase in trading volume in October, with the EU carbon market's average daily trading volume rising by 7.91% and the UK market by 34.43%, while the Korean market saw a slight decline of 1.06% [5] - Price movements varied across global markets, with the EU carbon market price increasing by 1.64%, while the UK and Korean markets experienced declines of 0.82% and 3.30%, respectively [6]

Summary of Longyuan Power Conference Call Company Overview - Longyuan Power is a subsidiary of China Energy Group, focusing on wind power, with a wind power installed capacity ratio of 73% and solar power at 27% [2][5][9] - The company has maintained a long-term Return on Equity (ROE) of 8%-9% since 2011, but has faced pressure on electricity prices and competition from thermal power, leading to a decline in revenue per kilowatt-hour [2][5] Industry Context and Valuation - The renewable energy industry is experiencing favorable policies, with a notable increase in new installed capacity since July 2025 [3] - Longyuan Power's price-to-book (PB) ratio has fluctuated significantly, dropping from 2.34 in September 2021 to a historical low of 0.52 in February 2024, and currently recovering to 0.85 [3][7] - The company is expected to benefit from industry valuation recovery due to its first-mover advantage and competitive pricing post the implementation of Document 136 [3][7] Financial Performance - As of mid-2025, Longyuan Power's accounts receivable stood at 49.5 billion yuan, accounting for 56% of net assets, with annual state subsidies expected to be between 12-13 billion yuan [4][11] - The price of green certificates has rebounded to 5.7 yuan per certificate, a 23% year-on-year increase, with trading volumes for green certificates and green electricity rising by 100%-200% [4][13] Asset and Project Pipeline - Longyuan Power's current operational capacity includes 31.4 GW of wind power and 11.8 GW of solar power, with plans to add 5 GW of new capacity in 2025 [8][9] - Future growth is anticipated from the injection of 4 GW of green power projects from the parent group, upgrades of old equipment, and a strong pipeline of offshore wind and large-scale projects [2][8] Market Dynamics - The marketization of electricity pricing has led to wind power prices being higher than solar power prices, benefiting Longyuan Power as a major wind power competitor [10] - The company has a competitive edge due to its internal synergies and the alignment of its renewable energy projects with its thermal power operations [10] Future Profitability and Projections - Longyuan Power's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.43 billion yuan, 7.22 billion yuan, and 7.93 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 0%, 12%, and 10% respectively [14] - Despite short-term performance pressures, the overall trend for the company is positive, with expectations for gradual recovery in the green energy sector [14]

Core Viewpoint - Since the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's renewable energy sector has achieved significant advancements in scale, proportion, marketization, and quality, contributing to energy security and green transformation, while also providing a model for global energy transition [2][3]. Large-Scale Leap - China's renewable energy capacity has seen a historic leap, with total installed capacity exceeding 2.1 billion kilowatts by July 2023, accounting for nearly 60% of the national total, and wind and solar power installations reaching 1.68 billion kilowatts, surpassing thermal power capacity [3][4]. - The development of large-scale renewable energy bases has transitioned from pilot projects to widespread implementation, with significant projects like the Xinjiang Gobi base contributing to a new pattern of large-scale and intensive development [4]. - Distributed energy installations have also surged, with distributed solar capacity reaching 497 million kilowatts by July 2025, over six times the level at the end of 2020, making up about 45% of total solar installations [4]. High Proportion Leap - The share of renewable energy in China's energy consumption has significantly increased, with renewable energy generation expected to reach 3.47 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2024, which is 2.5 times that of 2020 [6][7]. - Renewable energy has shifted from a supplementary role to a core component of the energy structure, with significant upgrades in transmission and grid management to accommodate this transition [7]. High-Quality Leap - China has established itself as a global leader in renewable energy, with a complete and rapidly developing industrial chain, and has achieved significant technological advancements in hydropower, offshore wind, and solar energy [8][9]. - The cost of renewable energy technologies has decreased significantly, with wind and solar power costs dropping by approximately 60% and 80% respectively over the past decade, facilitating global adoption [9][10]. Market-Oriented Development - A comprehensive policy framework has been established to support the development and regulation of renewable energy, enhancing market participation and ensuring high-quality growth [11][12]. - The green certificate system is being improved, with a significant increase in the issuance and trading of green certificates, reflecting the growing recognition of the environmental value of renewable energy [13][14]. - Innovative regulatory approaches are being implemented to ensure the healthy development of the renewable energy sector, utilizing advanced technologies for better oversight [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the green electricity sector, benefiting from the appreciation of green certificate values and high installation growth [1]. Core Insights - The report continues to recommend investment opportunities in green electricity operators against the backdrop of increasing green certificate values. In June 2025, the National Energy Administration issued 278 million green certificates, a month-on-month increase of 29.33%, involving 198,700 renewable energy projects, with 196 million being tradable certificates, accounting for 70.64% [4][6]. - Key industry data shows that in the first half of 2025, total electricity consumption reached 4.84 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The cumulative power generation was 4.54 trillion kWh, up 0.8% year-on-year, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation [4][13][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW public utility index fell by 1.84% during the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025, with declines across various sectors including thermal power and solar energy [9]. 2. Electricity Sector Tracking 2.1. Electricity Consumption - Total electricity consumption in H1 2025 was 4.84 trillion kWh, with growth rates of 8.7% in the primary industry, 2.4% in the secondary industry, 7.1% in the tertiary industry, and 4.1% in urban and rural residential use [13]. 2.2. Power Generation - Cumulative power generation in H1 2025 was 4.54 trillion kWh, with thermal and hydro power generation declining by 2.4% and 2.9% respectively, while wind and solar power generation increased by 11.1% and 18.3% [22]. 2.3. Electricity Prices - The average grid purchase price in July 2025 was 382 RMB/MWh, down 3% year-on-year and 1.4% month-on-month [36]. 2.4. Thermal Power - As of August 1, 2025, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao was 663 RMB/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 21.91% but a week-on-week increase of 10 RMB/ton [46]. 2.5. Hydropower - The water level at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 160.66 meters as of August 1, 2025, with inflow and outflow rates showing significant year-on-year declines of 49.02% and 44.94% respectively [57]. 2.6. Nuclear Power - In 2024, 11 new nuclear units were approved, indicating a continued trend of safe and orderly development in the nuclear sector [71]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in solar energy and charging stations, highlighting companies such as Longyuan Power, Zhongmin Energy, and China Nuclear Power as key recommendations [4].

Core Insights - The Chinese green certificate system has achieved significant breakthroughs in issuance, trading scale, and application scenarios, marking a rapid advancement in the marketization of green energy in China [1][2] - As of March 2023, China's renewable energy installed capacity reached 1.966 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 24%, accounting for 57.3% of the total installed capacity in the country and over 40% of the global renewable energy installed capacity [1] Group 1: Green Certificate System - The green certificate serves as a "green ID" for renewable energy electricity, with a comprehensive lifecycle management system established in China to ensure effective tracking of renewable energy production and usage [2] - In March 2023, the global green electricity consumption initiative RE100 fully recognized Chinese green certificates, enhancing their international recognition and influence [2][3] Group 2: Market Development Strategies - The Chinese government aims to create the world's largest green certificate market by improving the issuance and trading mechanisms, promoting distributed renewable energy projects, and ensuring stable market supply [2][3] - The government plans to expand application scenarios for green certificates, linking them with energy consumption responsibilities and carbon emission controls to stimulate consumer demand [3] - International cooperation will be strengthened to enhance global recognition of Chinese green certificates, including collaboration with the EU and organizations like RE100 [3][4]

Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the profitability of thermal power companies improved due to a decrease in coal prices from 765 RMB/ton to 621 RMB/ton, leading to an 11% recovery in stock prices since late January [4] - The thermal power sector is expected to see positive factors in electricity volume, price, and costs in 2025, indicating growth potential [4] - Hydropower and nuclear power sectors remain stable with strong cash flows and high dividend yields, while the deepening of domestic electricity reforms is likely to create diverse investment opportunities [4] Thermal Power - The comprehensive electricity price for thermal power is expected to remain stable in 2025, with coal prices trending downward, leading to further profit recovery in the industry [7] - It is recommended to focus on thermal power companies with smaller declines in electricity prices and lower proportions of long-term coal contracts [7] - The implementation of capacity pricing and auxiliary service income is expected to stabilize thermal power profitability [61] Hydropower - High dividend yields attract incremental capital, with the dividend yield of Changjiang Electric Power remaining between 3.2% and 4.4% from 2017 to 2024 [80] - The hydropower sector is expected to see growth due to the commissioning of new projects, with over 25 million kW of hydropower capacity under construction [73] Nuclear Power - The approval of 11 new nuclear units in 2024 marks a significant acceleration in nuclear project approvals, indicating a stable growth trajectory for the sector [82] - By the end of 2024, China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power have substantial capacities under construction, ensuring future growth [86] Renewable Energy - The installation of wind and solar power is expected to maintain high growth rates, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 1.41 billion kW by the end of 2024 [92] - The implementation of the 136 Document is expected to promote the full market entry of renewable energy, leading to a surge in installed capacity [99] Waste Incineration - The waste incineration sector is entering a mature phase, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both increasing by 18% year-on-year in 2024 [119] - Companies in this sector are expanding overseas, establishing a competitive advantage in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [122]