Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold and silver prices have caused volatility in the A-share cyclical sector, but the fundamental "supply-demand resonance" of the cyclical industry remains unchanged, supported by global power supply constraints, new demand from AI infrastructure and energy storage, and strategic reserve demands driven by national "resource security" policies [1][5] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The cyclical industry is supported by a complete layout covering upstream resources, midstream chemicals, and downstream agriculture, with four funds from China Europe Fund focusing on the cyclical industry chain [1][3] - The four funds, managed by different fund managers, aim to achieve comprehensive coverage of cyclical investments, with specific focuses on energy metals, industrial metals, natural resources, basic chemicals, and agriculture [3][4] Group 2: Performance Data - As of December 31, 2025, the China Europe Cyclical Preferred Mixed Fund A has achieved a cumulative return of 104.16% since its establishment on November 14, 2023, significantly outperforming its benchmark [4][10] - The China Europe Resource Selection Fund A has a return of 80.46% since its inception, exceeding its performance benchmark by 33.88 percentage points, focusing on core resource varieties like copper and aluminum [4][10] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The current third global commodity cycle is characterized by structural adjustments in the global economy, industrial upgrades, and geopolitical changes, with historical cycles providing a reference for understanding the uniqueness and sustainability of this cycle [5][6] - The ongoing global commodity cycle is expected to be prolonged, with major economies emphasizing "resource security," which supports the demand for core commodities like copper and aluminum [6][7] Group 4: 2026 Investment Directions - Fund managers have outlined investment directions for 2026, focusing on commodities such as copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, gold, and small metals, while also considering opportunities in chemicals and coking coal [8][9] - The cyclical industry is expected to benefit from continued liquidity easing and supply-side constraints, with a focus on price-elastic new energy metals and industries that can increase reserves and production under "resource security" policies [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The precious and non-ferrous metals have shown strong performance since the beginning of 2026, with significant price increases in gold, silver, and various industrial metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and new industrial demands [1][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 21, 2026, the London spot gold price surpassed $4800 per ounce for the first time in history, while spot silver exceeded $90 per ounce, setting new historical highs [1]. - The China Securities Upstream Resource Industry Index has increased by over 12% year-to-date as of January 21, 2026, following a remarkable gain of over 56% in 2025 [1][7]. - The strong performance of resource products is attributed to a shift in global macro liquidity and the emergence of new industrial demands due to a new technological revolution [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The "new cycle" in resource products presents clear long-term investment opportunities, driven by rising re-inflation expectations, global resource security strategies, and expanding demand from emerging industries [1][7]. - The China Europe Cycle Preferred Mixed Fund has achieved nearly double investment returns in 2025, with a cumulative return of 98.41%, significantly outperforming its benchmark of 45.72% [1]. Group 3: Fund Management and Strategy - The fund manager, Ren Fei, utilizes macro insights to flexibly navigate industry trends within the economic cycle, focusing on a combination of "cyclical value + cyclical growth" [4]. - The fund's top ten holdings are heavily concentrated in the metal resource sector, particularly in upstream mining and smelting companies related to key metals such as cobalt, lithium, nickel, aluminum, copper, and gold [4][5]. - Ren Fei's extensive experience in cyclical research and investment management supports the fund's strong performance and ability to adapt to market changes [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to focus on the non-ferrous sector in the first half of 2026, particularly in lithium carbonate and electrolytic aluminum, with a potential shift to domestic commodities in the second half if the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive [8]. - The re-inflation trend is anticipated to be a significant macro investment theme in 2026, with implications for asset allocation and stock market styles [7].

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant trend of capital flowing into high-performing public funds, with many actively managed equity funds experiencing substantial growth in scale during Q4 2025 [1][2] - Fund managers are maintaining high equity positions, with an average stock allocation of 86.78%, reflecting optimistic expectations for the A-share market in 2026 [3] Fund Performance - In Q4 2025, nearly 40 actively managed equity funds reported a quarter-on-quarter increase in scale, with two funds growing over tenfold [2] - The "China Europe Cycle Preferred Mixed Fund" saw its scale increase from 0.36 billion to 15.75 billion, a growth of 4217.93%, correlating with a performance return exceeding 45% in Q4 2025 and over 98% for the year [2] - The "Orient Alpha Technology Selected Mixed Fund," established in September 2025, grew from 0.11 billion to 3.94 billion, a 3478.29% increase, with returns exceeding 34% since inception [2] - The "Huafu New Energy Stock Fund" reported the largest scale increase of 26.49 billion, with returns exceeding 68% for the year [2] Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are maintaining high equity positions, with 44% of funds having allocations exceeding 90%, indicating a bullish outlook for the market [3] - Notable funds such as "Changcheng Jiuxiang Mixed A" and "Huafu New Energy Stock Fund" have allocations above 92%, reflecting an increase from Q3 2025 [3] - Four funds reported doubling their net value, with stock allocations ranging from 87.34% to 94.5%, focusing on technology sectors like AI infrastructure [3] Investment Focus - The prevailing strategy among high-performing funds includes increasing investments in AI infrastructure and resource sectors, with significant adjustments in top holdings [3] - The "China Europe Cycle Preferred Mixed Fund" added resource stocks such as "Shengtun Mining" and "Yun Aluminum," with the latter seeing a price increase of over 50% in Q4 [3] - Fund managers are preparing for the 2026 A-share spring market, with consensus on focusing on AI industry chains, resource security, and humanoid robotics [3] Sector Outlook - The manager of the "Orient Alpha Technology Selected Mixed Fund" is optimistic about the storage industry in Q1 2026, citing a continuing upward trend in storage chip prices [4] - The manager of the "China Europe Digital Economy Fund" views the AI sector as entering a phase of emerging bubbles, cautioning against high valuations that reflect overly optimistic growth expectations [4] - The "China Europe Cycle Preferred Mixed Fund" manager is focusing on opportunities in new energy metals, electrolytic aluminum investments, and resource security policies [4] - The "Huafu Technology Momentum Fund" is heavily invested in humanoid robotics, covering various production stages, while also acknowledging the uncertainties in technology development and production scaling [4]