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下阶段A股主要矛盾是基本面!中泰姜诚近期交流:知识要挑难的学,投资决策要挑简单的做
聪明投资者· 2025-12-04 07:03
Core Viewpoint - Value investment is not limited to stocks; any asset that generates cash returns can be evaluated using value investment principles [12][18]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contradiction in the A-share market is the fundamentals, requiring attention to both short-term and long-term developments [18][20]. - The worst situation for A-share fundamentals has already passed, with the lowest point occurring in the second half of last year [19]. - Current A-share market valuation is not the primary issue, as the absolute level of valuation has not changed significantly despite fluctuations in stock prices [19][20]. Group 2: Investment Performance - The performance of investment products managed by Jiang Cheng has been relatively flat this year, with a year-to-date return of 8.15% for the Zhongtai Xingyuan fund [4][5]. - Despite a challenging third quarter, the cumulative returns of Jiang Cheng's products remain robust, with the Zhongtai Xingyuan fund still showing positive absolute returns [7][8]. Group 3: Sector Insights - In the banking sector, while profit growth is modest, the improvement in net interest margins is noteworthy, with most banks showing a halt in the decline of their margins [20][21]. - The real estate sector is under scrutiny, with a focus on the profitability of land acquired by major developers, which currently shows optimistic profit margins [23][30]. Group 4: AI Investment Perspective - A significant amount of research has been dedicated to artificial intelligence, with 95% of recent efforts focused on this area [10][25]. - The current market conditions for AI-related investments are uncertain, with concerns about whether the high valuations are justified [25][26]. Group 5: Investment Philosophy - The essence of value assessment is the present value of future cash returns, emphasizing the importance of sustainable competitive advantages and business models [13][15]. - Avoiding mistakes is prioritized over seeking correctness in investment decisions, highlighting a cautious approach to risk management [17][18].
基金赚钱、基民也赚钱,这位百亿基金经理的做法值得关注
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the disparity between fund performance and investor returns, emphasizing the importance of aligning the two to regain investor trust in the fund industry [2][4]. Fund Performance Metrics - The article highlights two key performance indicators: "Fund Share Net Value Growth Rate" and "Weighted Average Net Value Profit Rate," which reflect the fund's profitability and overall investor returns, respectively [1][2]. - Data from the fund's performance reports shows fluctuations in these metrics over the years, with the fund share net value growth rate reaching 168.24% since inception, significantly outperforming the benchmark growth rate of 21.73% [3][8]. Fund Manager's Approach - Fund manager Jiang Cheng focuses on creating stable returns for investors, achieving a maximum drawdown of only 17.18% compared to the 45.60% drawdown of the CSI 300 index [4][5]. - Jiang emphasizes a conservative investment strategy, prioritizing low volatility and steady returns over short-term performance rankings [5][6]. Investor Communication - Jiang maintains high-frequency communication with investors, contributing investment notes and participating in live Q&A sessions to build trust and reduce information asymmetry [6][7]. - The average holding period for investors in Jiang's fund is approximately 782 days, indicating a higher level of investor patience and commitment [7]. Historical Performance Data - The fund's historical performance data shows varying net value growth rates from 2019 to 2025, with notable highs in 2019 (32.00%) and 2020 (41.78%), and a low in 2023 (-7.18%) [3][8]. - The introduction of a new share class (C shares) in July 2021 has also shown competitive performance, with a net value growth rate of 30.80% since inception [7][8].
目前中国股市远达不到泡沫化的状态!中泰姜诚最新发声:我们要时刻瞄准,但不需要频繁开枪
聪明投资者· 2025-08-19 07:03
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is suitable for value investing, where stock prices serve as an external variable to assess potential returns rather than a variable to predict [2][25][26]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investment Strategy - As of August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly ten-year high, closing at 3728.03 points, with the A-share market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan, marking a historical peak [2]. - The current stock prices are not as cheap as they were ten months ago, and some stocks have seen a decline in implied returns. However, the Chinese stock market is not in a bubble state when viewed alongside the Hong Kong market [2][55][56]. - The investment strategy emphasizes patience and a different perspective, focusing on long-term value rather than short-term market fluctuations [8][16][39]. Group 2: Fund Performance and Manager Insights - The fund managed by Jiang Cheng has shown a year-to-date return of 6.03%, with a three-year return of 23.77% and a five-year return of 74.68%, indicating stable performance [3]. - Jiang Cheng maintains a conservative approach, focusing on traditional sectors such as banking, chemicals, construction, and real estate, with a long-term investment horizon [3][5]. - The investment philosophy includes a significant emphasis on understanding the underlying value of assets and avoiding value traps, dedicating 20% of research efforts to identifying potential pitfalls in existing holdings [20][22]. Group 3: Value Investment Principles - Value investing is defined as an investment behavior aimed at acquiring asset value, with cash returns being the primary measure of value creation [23]. - The market's price volatility can create more opportunities for value investing, as it allows investors to buy undervalued assets [25][26]. - Safety margin is viewed as a conservative attitude, acknowledging the unpredictability of future market conditions and focusing on protecting against adverse scenarios [18][19]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Long-term Outlook - The current market environment presents both pressures and opportunities, with a need for caution at the micro level while maintaining optimism at the macro level [58][59]. - Continuous learning and adaptation to new market dynamics are essential for identifying long-term investment opportunities, especially in emerging sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [40][43][45]. - The investment approach encourages a focus on long-term goals and the ability to tolerate short-term market fluctuations without being overly influenced by them [52][63].
不出手的耐心!姜诚最近交流细剖超额收益的来源……
聪明投资者· 2025-06-23 06:34
Core Viewpoint - The core competency of value investors often lies in patience, particularly the patience to refrain from making impulsive decisions [18][19]. Group 1: Performance and Strategy - The performance of the managed products has been relatively stable, with several funds outperforming the market despite a lackluster overall performance in 2023 [2][3]. - The top holdings remain consistent, primarily in traditional sectors such as banking, chemicals, construction, and real estate, with a significant portion of the portfolio allocated to these industries [2][3]. - The long-term annualized return of the flagship product managed since December 2018 exceeds 16% [4]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The source of excess returns is attributed to a combination of establishing a forward-looking advantage in information, deeper analysis, and different perspectives [8]. - The investment approach emphasizes acquiring high-quality assets at low prices, which is more feasible when the majority do not share the same valuation standards [5][6]. - The belief that good stocks and returns are achieved through endurance and patience is a recurring theme [20]. Group 3: Market Insights - The current market environment has seen prolonged low performance in cyclical industries, which has exceeded most investors' expectations [10]. - The concept of "this time is different" is highlighted as a cautionary note, indicating that prolonged low performance can delay cash returns and diminish value over time [11]. - The outlook for the real estate sector suggests that risks may not be fully cleared, with a preference for a cautious approach until 2025 [13]. Group 4: Sector Analysis - In the banking sector, while the long-term contraction of interest margins is not yet over, the current pricing remains acceptable based on long-term perspectives [14][15]. - The construction industry has shown signs of cash flow improvement, aligning with expectations, which reduces concerns [15]. - The chemical sector faces challenges with many companies operating at a loss, yet some are still managing to generate profits through cost-cutting measures [15]. Group 5: Emerging Trends - The development of AI is viewed as an irreversible trend, although its immediate impact may be overestimated [16]. - The investment strategy involves a cautious approach to emerging sectors, emphasizing the need for thorough research and understanding of price dynamics [22].