2025 年 12 月 15 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 情绪稍有回暖，等待配置机会 公募基金泛固收指数跟踪周报（2025.12.08-2025.12.12） 分析师：孙书娜 分析师登记编码：S0890523070001 电话：021-20321306 邮箱：sunshuna@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080003 电话：021-20321087 邮箱：songyifei@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《年末扰动仍存，静等配置时 机—公募基金泛固收指数跟踪周报 （2025.12.01-2025.12.05）》2025- 12-08 2、《市场缩量上涨，宏观博弈临 近 — 公 募 基 金 权 益 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.12.01-2025.12.05）》2025- 12-08 3 、 《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 — 2025/12/8》2025-12-08 4、《市场震荡因素缓解，关注短期 低位布局机会 —公募基金量化遴选 类 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.11.30）》2025-12-02 5、《 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week (2025.08.25 - 2025.08.29), the bond market continued to fluctuate with improved sentiment, while the stock - bond relationship showed some desensitization. The 1 - year Treasury yield dropped to 1.37%, and the 10 - year yield rose to 1.84%. Credit spreads and term spreads of credit bonds diverged [2][9]. - US Treasury yields declined last week, with the 1 - year yield at 3.83%, the 2 - year at 3.59%, and the 10 - year at 4.23%, due to concerns about Fed independence and strong demand for 2 - year US Treasuries [9]. - The REITs market recovered last week, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index rising 1.06%. The rental housing and consumer infrastructure sectors had the largest rebounds, while the transportation and energy sectors showed defensive characteristics [2][10]. - The approval of "equity - containing" hybrid funds and secondary bond funds has accelerated [2][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - **Bond Market**: Last week, the bond market was volatile with improved sentiment. The 1 - year Treasury yield decreased by 0.09BP to 1.37%, and the 10 - year yield increased by 5.61BP to 1.84%. Credit bonds showed an overall oscillatory recovery, with term spreads and credit spreads diverging. The short - term possibility of further yield decline is low, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market has generally declined. The 10 - year Treasury yield mainly fluctuated between 1.75% - 1.8%. To reduce volatility, one can moderately reduce duration or increase attention to high - coupon assets [2][9]. - **US Treasury Bonds**: Last week, US Treasury yields declined. The 1 - year yield dropped to 3.83%, the 2 - year to 3.59%, and the 10 - year to 4.23%. This was due to concerns about Fed independence after Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook and strong demand for 2 - year US Treasuries [9]. - **REITs Market**: Last week, the REITs market recovered, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index rising 1.06%. The rental housing and consumer infrastructure sectors had the largest rebounds, while the transportation and energy sectors showed low volatility. In the issuance market, 15 REITs have been successfully issued this year as of August 29, 2025. Last week, 2 new - issue and 2 expansion - issue REITs made progress [2][10]. 1.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The approval of "equity - containing" hybrid funds and secondary bond funds has accelerated. According to the latest "Institutional Supervision Situation Bulletin" on August 28, 2025, the regulatory authorities have improved the public fund product registration arrangement. The approval speed is set according to the equity position of the product. For example, stock ETFs are registered within 5 working days, active - management equity funds and off - exchange broad - based stock index funds within 10 working days, and hybrid funds and secondary bond funds with a certain minimum stock position within 15 working days. There is also a "rewarding the excellent and supporting the new" regulatory orientation [11]. 2. Pan - Fixed - Income Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week | Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | | Money Enhancement Index | +0.03% | +3.99% | | Short - Term Bond Fund Selection | - 0.03% | +4.15% | | Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection | +0.07% | +6.21% | | Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | +0.20% | +3.72% | | Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | +0.53% | +4.79% | | High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Fund Selection | +0.23% | +6.29% | | Convertible Bond Fund Selection | - 1.28% | +18.45% | | QDII Bond Fund Selection | +0.20% | +9.13% | 2.1. Money Enhancement Index Tracking - **Index Positioning**: The money enhancement strategy index aims at liquidity management, seeking a curve that outperforms money funds. It mainly invests in money market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money Fund Index [14]. 2.2. Pure Bond Index Tracking - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: It focuses on liquidity management, aiming for a smooth curve with controlled drawdowns. It mainly invests in 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return capabilities. The performance benchmark is 50% Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% Ordinary Money Fund Index [15][17]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection Index**: It invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, aiming for stable returns and controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds, balancing coupon strategies and band - trading operations, and adjusting the ratio of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [18]. 2.3. Fixed - Income + Index Tracking - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is set at 10%, and 10 funds are selected each period. It focuses on funds with an equity position within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% CBA New Comprehensive Full - Price Index [22]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is 20%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects funds with an equity position between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently, emphasizing performance elasticity [25]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection Index**: The equity center is 30%, and 5 funds are selected each period. It selects funds with an equity position between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently, focusing on performance elasticity and strong stock - picking ability in the equity segment [28]. 2.4. Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index - **Index Positioning**: The sample space consists of bond funds with an average convertible bond investment ratio of at least 60% in the latest period and at least 80% in the past four quarters. An evaluation system is established from multiple dimensions to select 5 funds [30]. 2.5. QDII Bond Fund Selection Index Tracking - **Index Positioning**: The underlying assets of QDII bond funds are overseas bonds, covering regions such as the world, Asia, and emerging markets. Six funds with stable returns and good risk control are selected to form the index [33].

Group 1 - The report highlights an increase in risk appetite in the equity market during August 2025, with significant gains in various fund indices, including a 6.76% rise in the active equity fund index [5][13][16] - The report notes that the "anti-involution" policy has positively influenced market sentiment, leading to a recovery in equity performance, particularly in sectors like finance and technology [13][19] - The bond market experienced volatility, with a slight positive return of 0.21% in the bond fund index, while the convertible bond index rose by 3.22% due to improved risk appetite [14][16] Group 2 - The report suggests that the equity allocation strategy should focus on sectors impacted by previous policies, awaiting guidance from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and industry-specific plans to clarify future supply-demand relationships [5][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of performance-driven attention during the interim period before the mid-year reports, indicating a potential shift towards high-consensus stocks and opportunities for low-positioned sectors to rebound [5][21] - The report outlines a diversified approach for fixed-income funds, recommending a focus on short-term pure bond funds while monitoring market conditions for potential trading opportunities [30][31] Group 3 - The report indicates that the growth style outperformed value and balanced styles in July, with growth fund indices rising by 7.74% compared to 2.03% for value funds [15][17] - The report identifies strong performance in the pharmaceutical and technology sectors, with the pharmaceutical sector gaining 15.88% and technology rising by 8.02% due to favorable policies and project initiations [17][20] - The report discusses the "anti-involution" policy's focus on alleviating short-term capacity excess and enhancing market efficiency, particularly in emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics [19][21]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations and an upward trend during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) rising by 0.17% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) increasing by 0.14% [2][12] - Short-term interest rates showed strong performance, with key yield spreads widening, while credit bond yields generally declined, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads [2][12] - The liquidity in the market improved post-quarter, supporting the bond market's strength, and the demand for coupon assets returned to stability [2][12][13] US Market Dynamics - Strong US non-farm payroll data reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to an upward trend in US Treasury yields [14] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance and the unexpected strength in employment data contributed to a shift in market sentiment regarding future monetary policy [14] REITs Market Activity - The REITs secondary market saw fluctuations but ultimately rose, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index increasing by 0.66% [15] - Despite some adjustments in the market, the overall trading activity remained robust, indicating a healthy development trend [15] Public Fund Market Developments - The first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on July 2, 2025, which is expected to provide new credit base options for investors amid a low-interest-rate environment [16][17] Fund Performance Tracking - Short-term bond funds rose by 0.08% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.02% since inception [3] - Medium to long-term bond funds increased by 0.19%, achieving a cumulative return of 6.69% since inception [4] - Low-volatility fixed income plus funds rose by 0.31%, with a cumulative return of 2.79% since inception [5] - Medium-volatility fixed income plus funds increased by 0.54%, with a cumulative return of 2.33% since inception [6] - High-volatility fixed income plus funds rose by 0.40%, achieving a cumulative return of 3.40% since inception [7] - Convertible bond funds increased by 0.74%, with a cumulative return of 10.79% since inception [8] - QDII bond funds decreased by 0.08%, with a cumulative return of 7.87% since inception [9] - REITs funds rose by 1.00%, achieving a cumulative return of 40.41% since inception [10]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a slight increase last week (June 9-13, 2025), with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) rising by 0.18% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) increasing by 0.15% [2][11] - The yield on government bonds remained stable, while credit bond yields showed a downward trend, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads [2][11] - The second round of China-US negotiations concluded without significant new information, and macroeconomic data appeared weak, contributing to the decline in bond yields [11][12] Public Fund Market Dynamics - There has been a significant expansion of credit bond ETFs in 2025, with the total scale exceeding 110 billion yuan. Numerous fund companies are actively applying for technology innovation bond index funds, with the first batch potentially including 10 companies [14][15] - The first public rental housing REIT expansion was completed, raising approximately 946 million yuan through the issuance of about 224 million fund shares, which has positively impacted the REITs market [13][14] Fund Index Performance Tracking - Short-term bond fund index rose by 0.05% last week, with a cumulative return of 3.87% since inception [3][17] - Medium to long-term bond fund index increased by 0.11%, achieving a cumulative return of 6.36% since inception [4][17] - REITs fund index surged by 1.98%, with a remarkable cumulative return of 39.45% since inception [10][17] Specific Fund Index Insights - The low volatility fixed income + fund index rose by 0.13%, with a cumulative return of 2.23% since inception [5][17] - The medium volatility fixed income + fund index increased by 0.12%, with a cumulative return of 1.51% since inception [6][17] - The high volatility fixed income + fund index saw a rise of 0.28%, with a cumulative return of 2.96% since inception [7][17] REITs Market Development - The REITs market maintained high activity levels, with the China REITs Total Return Index rising by 0.69% last week, driven by the performance of public rental housing projects [13][14]

Key Points - The article discusses the recovery of equity market sentiment and the fluctuating bond market in May 2025, influenced by the US-China tariff agreement and monetary policy adjustments [2][5][6] - It emphasizes the importance of balancing growth and defensive strategies in investment portfolios, highlighting the need to capture structural opportunities while being cautious of external disturbances and domestic economic data fluctuations [2][14] - The performance of various fund styles is analyzed, showing that value and balanced styles outperformed growth styles in May 2025, with significant movements in sector-specific funds, particularly in healthcare and military themes [9][10][11] Equity Market Overview - In May 2025, the equity market experienced a "rise, fall, and stabilization" pattern, with major indices showing gains due to supportive monetary policies and the US-China tariff agreement [6][7] - The overall trading volume decreased, indicating a lower risk appetite among investors, with small-cap stocks seeing increased activity [11][12] Bond Market Overview - The bond market exhibited a narrow range of fluctuations, with government bond issuance and tariff negotiations impacting interest rates [8][18] - The yields on 1-year, 3-year, and 10-year government bonds changed slightly, reflecting the market's response to monetary policy and external factors [18][26] Fund Performance Review - The article reviews the performance of public funds, noting that all major equity fund indices recorded gains, with the Wande Stock Index and Wande Ordinary Stock Index leading with increases of 1.59% and 1.23%, respectively [7][8] - The article highlights the performance of thematic funds, particularly in healthcare and military sectors, which saw significant gains due to market dynamics and geopolitical events [10][11] Fund Strategy Insights - The article outlines strategies for equity and fixed-income fund allocations, suggesting a focus on growth and defensive sectors while maintaining a balanced approach [2][3][14] - It discusses the construction of various fund indices, including low, medium, and high volatility fixed-income funds, aimed at providing stable returns while managing risks [19][28][30]